Adjusting for Military Service

Many fans have wondered over the years about those players who lost playing time to military service – and how that may have impacted their total careers.

One interesting aspect of win shares and the CAWS Career Gauge is that it is fairly easy to reasonably adjust a player’s career numbers to reflect this lost time.  Let’s take Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams as two examples.

Joe DiMaggio’s career numbers are ranked #25 among position players of the 20 ^th century by the CAWS Gauge.  Here are some players ranked just above and below him.  CWS = career win shares, CV = core value (win shares for his ten best seasons) and CAWS = career score = CV + .25(CWS – CV).

As most fans know, Joe D had a relatively short career of only thirteen seasons and this is a major reason why his career numbers do not rank him higher.  He lost seasons to military service and to early retirement due to a foot problem.

DiMaggio lost three playing seasons (1943-45) in the prime of his career to military service in World War II.  And many fans have speculated as to what his career might have looked like if he did not lose those years.  Of course, the same question would apply to some other great player as well such as Ted Williams, Stan Musial and Willie Mays – to name just a few.

For the two years prior to his military service, Joe DiMaggio earned the following win shares:  1941 = 41 and 1942 = 32.  On his return from the military, he earned the following in the next two years:  1946 = 24 and 1947 = 30.  If we average these four seasons, we get 31.75 or 32 win shares.  Therefore, it is reasonable to project that he would have averaged 32 win shares for the three years that he was in the military.  And so his new CAWS line would look like this.

This adjustment would move the Yankee Clipper from #25 to #17 on the CAWS list.

The military adjustment is even more dramatic for Ted Williamssince he essentially lost five seasons to military service – three during World War II (1943-1945) and two during the Korean War (1952-1953).  As most fans know, Ted was a fighter pilot in those conflicts.

For the two years prior to his first military stint, Ted earned the following win shares: 1941 = 42 and 1942 = 46.   On his return, he earned the following: 1946 = 49 and 1947 = 44.  The average is 45.25.  So, we award him 45 win shares for each of the three years during WW II.  Similarly, for his time in the Korean War, 1950 = 19 and 1951 = 34 while 1954 = 29 and 1955 = 23.  So, we award him 26 win shares for each of the two seasons he lost there.  Therefore, Ted’s new CAWS line looks like this.

This adjustment becomes VERY SIGNIFICANT .  It moves the Splendid Splinter up from the #9 position on the CAWS list to #2 – just behind the Babe.  And I think it is fair to say that many fans would tend to agree with this conclusion.

Of course, if we adjust for the military time for Mays and Musial, they would also move up a bit – but not to the extent Williams does.

Thanks for your time.

Mike Hoban,

Professor Emeritus – City U of NY

Author of  DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook

http://booklocker.com/books/6117.html