Hardball Retrospective – 1907 Season Replay

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Sherry Magee is listed on the Phillies roster for the duration of his career while the Pirates claim Ginger Beaumont and the Reds declare Orval Overall. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1907 schedule.

Several housekeeping items:

• American League schedule was omitted from the 1907 season replay due to a lack of ballplayers on each team. (Apologies to Ty Cobb, Ed Walsh and Eddie Plank)
• Players on defunct teams such as Honus Wagner and Tommy Leach (Louisville Colonels) along with Cy Young and Bobby Wallace (Cleveland Spiders) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
• I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective”is available in digital format on Amazon , Barnes and Noble , GooglePlay , iTunes and KoboBooks . The paperback edition is available on Amazon , Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Additional information and a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com .

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible  here .

Terminology

OWAR– Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS– Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW%– Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1907 National League – Replay Results

Heading into September, six of the eight National League ballclubs remained within striking distance of the first-place Cubs. The Chicago moundsmen stifled the opposition, recording 17 victories in the final 21 contests to clinch the pennant. Fred Beebe (15-12, 2.24) placed runner-up in ERA and Bob “Dusty” Rhoads led the staff with 20 wins. On offense, three Cubs swiped at least 30 bags as Frank “Husk” Chance racked up a team-best 43 SB. Cincinnati claimed second place with an 85-71 record. “Wahoo” Sam Crawford batted .300 and finished third in OBP, SLG and base hits. “Long” Bob Ewing fashioned a 24-12 mark with the fifth-best ERA in the Senior Circuit. Orval Overall posted 15 wins and 5 saves along with a 2.51 ERA for the Redlegs.

Harry Davis captured the home run crown with 7 while Cy Seymour topped the League with 97 ribbies for the third-place Giants. Christy Mathewson (26-17, 2.26) placed third in ERA and fashioned a 1.01 WHIP.  “Big Six” topped the NL in victories and completed 33 of 39 starts. Pirates’ outfielder Ginger Beaumont collected the batting crown with a .320 average and Lew Moren (17-11, 2.15) secured the ERA title. Beaumont led the NL with 187 hits and finished runner-up in OBP (.380) and stolen bases (46).

The Superbas’ outfield featured Fielder Jones (45 SB) and Harry Lumley (15 triples). Spike Shannon accrued 91 tallies for the Cardinals. Mordecai Brown contributed 21 wins, an ERA of 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05. Sherry Magee (.319/4/53) fell one point shy of the batting title yet earned the top slot in the OBP (.385) and SLG (.449) charts. Second-sacker Nap Lajoie delivered a .317 BA for the Fightin’ Phillies. Fred Tenney registered a League-leading 96 aces for the cellar-dwelling Boston Doves (46-116).

1907 National League – Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

Chicago (87-67) snapped New York’s pennant streak at four. Philadelphia paced the National League in OWAR (56.2) and OWS (349).

On Deck

1908 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive