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5 things to watch in Patriots playoff matchup against Houston Texans
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- 5 things to watch in Patriots playoff matchup against Houston Texans
FOXBOROUGH – Things change quickly in the NFL.
Mike Vrabel can attest to that.
As a rookie in 1997, Vrabel’s first NFL season resulted in a trip to the AFC Championship game, where the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos . Reality hit Vrabel over the next three seasons as none of his Steelers teams made it to the playoffs.
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That’s why Vrabel has made it a point to tell his Patriots players to enjoy themselves during this playoff run. The coach hopes that it continues beyond Sunday’s AFC divisional round matchup with the Houston Texans .
“You only get so many opportunities to be in this position,” Vrabel said. “I talked about being in the AFC Championship game as a rookie in 1997 and not going back in there in my time in Pittsburgh. The next three years, we didn’t make the playoffs. Things change quickly. Every season is unique, and we should embrace the one we have, especially since a lot of us weren’t involved in this a year ago.”
The Patriots extended their season by beating the Los Angeles Chargers in last weekend’s AFC wild-card matchup. Next up, they’ll face a tough team with one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Here are five things to watch:
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Patriots offensive line
The biggest matchup on Sunday will be between the Texans’ star-studded defensive line and the Patriots’ offensive line. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks) are the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. Both are All-Pros, and both can ruin the Patriots’ afternoon.
Houston has one of the NFL’s best pass rushes, sacking quarterbacks on 8.74% of their drop-backs. This will be a tough matchup for Patriots rookie offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson . Against the Chargers, Pro Football Focus had Campbell (one) and Wilson (two) down for three total sacks allowed. The Patriots need to do all they can to protect Drake Maye on Sunday.
Drake Maye
The Patriots hold the advantage in several areas in this matchup, with the most significant one being at the quarterback position. C.J. Stroud is a good quarterback, but Maye is in the running for the league’s MVP for a reason.
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Maye struggled throwing the ball in last weekend’s wild-card matchup. He’s playing a tougher defense this weekend, but he can’t repeat his mistakes. The quarterback fumbled twice (lost one) and threw an interception on a tipped ball. Maye can take over a game and needs to do that this weekend.
Turnovers
The Patriots lost the turnover battle last week, but still beat the Los Angeles Chargers. Houston also lost the turnover battle (3-2) last weekend, but still managed to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Patriots can’t bank on that happening again. The easiest way to lose in the playoffs is to give the ball away. Houston’s secondary ranks third in the NFL in interceptions (19) and interception percentage (3.53). The Texans finished this season second in the NFL in turnover differential (+17). The Patriots finished tenth (+3). If the Patriots want to go to the AFC Championship game, they need to secure the ball on offense and take the ball away on defense.
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Patriots secondary
The Patriots are catching a break this weekend as the Texans will be without Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins . The veteran led Houston with 1,117 yards and tied for the team lead with six touchdowns. Without him, the Patriots’ secondary needs to dominate Houston’s passing offense, which will feature receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Dalton Schultz .
Simply put, the Patriots’ secondary needs to dominate this matchup. If they shut down Stroud’s targets, it’ll give the Patriots’ defensive line more than enough time to get to the Texans’ quarterback. Houston is 2-3 this season when Stroud is sacked three or more times.
Red zone
The Texans haven’t been great inside the red zone this season. Houston finished ranked 30th, scoring touchdowns 46.3% of the time. They also have struggled inside the 10-yard line. Houston scored touchdowns 67.86% of the time they started with first-and-goal. That was 26th in the NFL.
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The Patriots also had their struggles this season in those areas, but have been better than their opponent. The team finished 17th in the NFL, scoring touchdowns 57.14% of the time in the red zone. They finished 23rd in the NFL in goal-to-go offense, scoring touchdowns 70% of the time.
With a tough defense, the Patriots need to reach the end zone when they’re in striking distance.
Prediction:Patriots 23, Texans 20
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