Who will win the Heisman Trophy? The latest Heisman odds right now suggest it's a three-man race between Julian Sayin , Fernando Mendoza and Diego Pavia . However, given the stakes of the Big Tehn Championship Game on Saturday, it might be more accurate to call it a two-quarterback battle withe veryone else just competing to be at the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
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Let's dive into our Heisman Trophy candidates rankings entering conference championship weekend.
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The biggest knock on the resume of Julian Sayin for Heisman Trophy voters is the lack of signature moments. After all, the Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback didn't do much in the season-opening win over Texas , and Ohio State beat the remainder of its 11 opponents by a +344 point differential during the regular season.
We saw a signature moment from Sayin at Michigan Stadium. After throwing an interception on his second pass of the game, the first-year starting quarterback completed 17-of-24 passes with 3 passing touchdowns and 233 passing yards, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. Sayin ended the regular season leading the nation in completion rate (78.9 percent), with the next-closest quarterback at 74.7 percent. He also easily led the Heisman-caliber quarterbacks in ESPN QBR (91.4) and Pro Football Focus grade (93.5). Sayin is our pick before facing Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game, and he'll remain it with a win.
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Fernando Mendoza has the best Heisman odds right now and seems to be the front-runner among award voters. There's certainly an outstanding case for the Indiana Hoosiers quarterback to take home the coveted trophy. After all, he led all Power Four quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.4) with the fourth-best completion rate (72 percent) among his peers with 280-plus attempts. He threw more than twice as many touchdowns (five) as incompletions (two) in a win over Illinois . In fact, he either had more than or as many passing touchdowns as incompletions in a game in four games this season. Mendoza also engineered the go-ahead touchdown drive in Eugene that handed Oregon its only loss of the season. If he beats Ohio State, the Heisman Trophy should be his unanimously.
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We'll first make the argument against Diego Pavia winning the Heisman Trophy. The Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback isn't playing in the SEC Championship Game, so he won't have a conference title on his resume unlike either Fernando Mendoza or Julian Sayin. It also has to be recognized that Pavia had a rough stretch in October, completing just 59.2 percent of his pass attempts with a 2-2 TD-INT line and a loss to Alabama . It might've been two losses, had Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula not gone down early with an injury as Pavia finished that game with just 149 total yards of offense with 1 touchdown and an interception.
Now the case for Pavia. He's taken Vanderbilt to heights never seen before from this program. He is the reason why the Commodores are a 10-win team for the first time in school history. He also shattered Vanderbilt's record books while ranking just behind Mendoza in points responsible for (218) among FBS players. He deserves a trip to New York City, but Pavia should be no higher than second on Heisman ballots.
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In the season-opening loss at Miami, Jeremiyah Love finished with just 33 scrimmage yards (3.3 yards per carry) and 59 scrimmage yards on 14 touches. In his final 11 games, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back put up 1,339 rushing yards (121.7 rushing yards per game), with 254 receiving yards, 21 total touchdowns, and a 7.1 yards-per-carry average. For context, that would be the second-highest rush ypg average in the Power 4 this season ( Ahmad Hardy , 130.0) and the second-highest yards-per-carry average in the country. We're just hoping we get to see Love in the College Football Playoff, because he's the most exciting running back out there and he's been even better as of late.
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The fifth spot in the Heisman Trophy candidates rankings this year feels like it could go to any of 10 different players. For us, the nod goes to Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. They got him involved in the offense a bit this year, allowing him to finish the regular season with 3 total touchdowns. Rodriguez was also the leader of a Red Raiders defense that led the nation in stop rate, while he led the nation in forced fumbles (seven) while tying for 16th in interceptions (four), leading all linebackers in the category.
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