Week 15 College Football Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend Picks

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Week 15 College Football Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend Picks

Week 15 College Football Predictions: Conference Championship Weekend Picks — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Matt Johnson · Sportsnaut

Tue, Dec 2, 2025 ·

8 min read

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Conference Championship Weekend has arrived in college football, with Week 15 potentially deciding who will win the Heisman Trophy and seedings for the College Football Playoff. There's plenty at stake in the conference title games and there are some outstanding matchups to watch, including rematches.

Let's dive into our college football predictions for Conference Championship Weekend.

Mountain West: UNLV Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos

COllege Football Predictions, Conference Championship Weekend — Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

It's a rematch between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Friday night. The last meeting between UNLV and Boise State ended with the Broncos running wild over the Rebels, as Dylan Riley eclipsed the 200-yard mark on just 15 carries. That set up Maddux Madsen to have a season-best performance with 253 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 56-31 win.

We don't see it going all that different with the MWC title on the line. UNLV ranks 101st nationally in rushing defense, allowing 175.5 rushing yards per game with a 5.33 yards-per-carry average. Facing a Boise State offense that runs the ball on 53.45 percent of its plays, averaging 189.8 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, the Rebels' biggest weakness can be exploited. As long as Madsen avoids turnovers, Boise State will win the Mountain West Conference title at home. It'll be the Broncos' 11th straight win over UNLV.

Prediction:Boise State Broncos 38, UNLV Rebels 28

American Athletic: North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave

In the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, we've got two head coaches splitting duties between preparing their teams while also getting ready for new Power Four jobs. That also means the North Texas Mean Green versus the Tulane Green Wave could be a showcase for Oklahoma State fans (Eric Morris) and Florida fans (Jon Sumrall) to see what their new head coach will bring to their respective programs. Tulane and North Texas haven't gone head-to-head this season. However, they have played common opponents, with the Mean Green looking like the superior team in matchups against Temple and UTSA, whereas Tulane performed better versus Charlotte and Army.

Led by quarterback Drew Mestermaker, North Texas (327.7 passing yards per game, second in FBS) will be looking to exploit a Tulane defense that ranks 117th nationally against the pass. Another issue for the Green Wave could be how effective the Mean Green are on third downs (47.5 percent conversion rate, 21st in FBS), as Tulane's defense ranks 84th in that category. The fact that North Texas' biggest strength directly attacks Tulane's greatest weakness leads us to pick the Mean Green to win the American Athletic Championship.

Prediction:North Texas Mean Green 38, Tulane Green Wave 31

Big 12 Championship: BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Just a month after the Texas Tech Red Raiders dominated the BYU Cougars, we now get a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game. The loss to Texas Tech is the only blemish on the Cougars' résumé, as they otherwise have been dominant this season with a defense that allows just 17.8 points and 324.6 total yards per game. However, that's nothing compared to the success of the Red Raiders' defense this year.

We're typically inclined to pick the team with the most dominant unit to win the game. BYU is going to run the football (56.46 percent rush rate), but Texas Tech has the best run defense in college football, with opponents averaging just 68.9 rushing yards per game and 2.32 yards per carry. As long as the Red Raiders can take away the Cougars' identity, Texas Tech should beat BYU by two scores again.

Prediction:Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, BYU Cougars 13

SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

It's fitting that we get an SEC Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide. Back on September 27, Alabama jumped out to a 14-point lead at Sanford Stadium and took a 24-14 lead into halftime. It reflected the kind of ownership the Crimson Tide have had over the Bulldogs in recent years, with Kalen DeBoer proving that it wasn't just a Nick Saban thing.

However, we saw a different version of Georgia in the second half of that game. The Bulldogs' defense shut out Alabama after the break, albeit with a missed field goal helping that cause. Still, it seemed to be a turning point for Kirby Smart's defense, which has allowed just 122 points (15.26 PPG) over its last eight quarters. It's also worth noting that an inconsistent Crimson Tide rushing attack is facing a defense that has allowed only 2.3 yards per carry and 43.7 rushing yards per game in its last three contests.

Which team will be able to run the football more effectively? Georgia would seem like the best bet, but the potential loss of center Drew Bobo could change that dramatically, and Alabama has allowed just 95 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. It also doesn't help the Bulldogs that Gunner Stockton is coming off a season-worst performance, though Georgia still managed to win.

Who wins? The recent ups and downs from Ty Simpson and the overall inconsistency of this Crimson Tide rushing attack feel ill-timed against a Georgia team desperate to finally beat Alabama. It'll come down to the wire, but the Bulldogs win in Atlanta.

Prediction:Georgia Bulldogs 24, Alabama Crimson Tide 21

ACC Championship: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils

Are these the two teams that should be playing in the ACC Championship Game? Probably not. But the Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils is the matchup we're getting on Saturday. Duke is an underdog for a reason, but Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah is the great equalizer. Unfortunately, as the 34-17 loss showed just a few weeks ago, he might not have the supporting cast necessary to win.

Virginia should again be able to run the football against a Blue Devils defense that has allowed 141 rush ypg and 4.1 yards per carry this season with 27 rushing touchdowns. On top of that, the Cavaliers won in this last meeting despite Chandler Morris throwing 2 interceptions and Duke only had 9 interceptions in its 11 other games this season.

There's part of us that wants to lean toward the upset, with Mensah learning from his mistakes last time out versus Virginia and creating some chaos for the College Football Playoff. We just don't think the rest of the Blue Devils roster is good enough for Mensah to pull it off.

Prediction:Virginia Cavaliers 28, Duke Blue Devils 21

Big Ten Championship: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

The Big Ten Championship Game deciding who gets the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and who takes home the Heisman Trophy. Are those stakes high enough for you? Coming into this week, the two best college football teams in 2025 have been the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers and there hasn't been a close third. Now we get to see them go head-to-head.

Throw out last year's game — the Hoosiers are a better team than they were last season. Ohio State's defense rightfully gets all the national attention, and it deserves the spotlight. What can't be forgotten, though, is a Hoosiers defense that has the fifth-best stop rate (78.7 percent) in college football and ranks third in points per drive allowed (1.00). Another point in Indiana's favor: it has held opponents to a 27.7 percent third-down conversion rate (fourth-best in the FBS) this season.

Many doubted whether Indiana was good enough to beat Oregon in Eugene. The Hoosiers limited the Ducks to a 21.4 percent third-down conversion rate (3-of-14), with two interceptions and just 2.7 yards per carry allowed. Curt Cignetti also has quarterback Fernando Mendoza playing at an incredible level, and a strong performance versus Ohio State would likely guarantee him a top-three selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

We're picking Ohio State to win. That's not only because of a Buckeyes defense that has allowed the second-fewest points per drive (0.91), the fewest yards per attempt (4.97), and the fewest total yards per game (203). It's also because quarterback Julian Sayin is by far the most accurate passer in the nation, with two game-changing wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate , plus an underrated rushing attack supporting him. Coaching matters, but talent wins out — and the Buckeyes will take the Big Ten Championship Game because of that advantage.

Prediction:Ohio State Buckeyes 21, Indiana Hoosiers 14

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