Michigan basketball’s X-factor to beat Arizona in Final Four tilt

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Michigan basketball’s X-factor to beat Arizona in Final Four tilt

Jaren Kawada, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Apr 1, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Michigan basketball's X-factor to beat Arizona in Final Four tilt appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

After dominating throughout the 2025-2026 college basketball season, Michigan and Arizona meet in the Final Four with everything on the line. Led by their frontcourt tandem of Yaxel Lendeborg , Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. , the Wolverines will meet their match against the equally physical Wildcats.

Michigan struggled some at the end of the regular season after losing backup point guard L.J. Cason , but it has been smooth sailing in the NCAA Tournament. Dusty May has his team in the Final Four in just his second year in Ann Arbor, with dominant wins over Howard, Saint Louis, Alabama and Tennessee to win the Midwest region.

The Final Four appearance is Michigan's first since 2018, but May's second in the last three years. The 49-year-old head coach memorably put himself on the map when he took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023.

Now with Michigan, May continues to prove himself as arguably the best coach in college basketball, going 122-26 in the last four years since the Owls' Final Four run. May's success with the Wolverines stems from the college basketball transfer portal, where he snagged Lendeborg, Mara, Johnson and Elliot Cadeau in the 2025 offseason.

While May's last Final Four run ended in heartbreaking fashion, he has a golden opportunity to right the wrong with his new squad. If Michigan is going to return to the National Championship Game, it is going to have to top Arizona the same way it has won every other game and beat the Wildcats at their own game.

Michigan vs. Arizona will be decided in the paint

Michigan's veteran team will meet its match against Arizona, a significantly younger team that is equally as physical. The battle in the paint will be a full-scale throwback to 1980s basketball, playing directly into the hands of what both coaches want.

Everyone will look to Lendeborg for Michigan and Jaden Bradley for Arizona, the two captains and Players of the Year in their respective conferences, to lead each team to the promise land. Lendeborg, in particular, has been on fire, averaging 21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game in the NCAA Tournament while shooting 59.2 percent from the floor.

However, if Michigan is going to beat Arizona, it has to play through the paint. While the Wildcats are elite against the paint on paper — allowing just 26.8 points in the paint per game, 26th in the country — history suggests that is the Wolverines' best path to victory.

Texas Tech and Kansas , the two teams to beat the Wildcats this season, each had a big performance from one of their interior players, with JT Toppin dropping 31 points and 13 rebounds for the Red Raiders and Flory Bidunga leading the Jayhawks with 23 points and 10 rebounds.

Texas Tech and Kansas also got Arizona into foul trouble to get to the line and strain Tommy Lloyd's rotation. Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka each found themselves in foul trouble in both of the Wildcats' losses, with the Red Raiders also drawing three fouls on Koa Peat .

Arizona has rightfully earned a reputation as a physical unit that entices teams to try to beat it with speed. Yet, the only two teams to solve the puzzle fought fire with fire and beat the Wildcats at their own game.

For Michigan, that screams Aday Mara.

While neither team will advance without a strong performance from its best player, Michigan will not advance past the Final Four without a big performance from Mara.

Aday Mara is Michigan's X-factor in Final Four matchup

While Michigan is at its best when Lendeborg runs the show, it is also difficult to stop when Mara gets going. The Wolverines are 7-0 when Mara scores at least 15 points and 4-0 when he records a double-double.

Michigan's success increases when Morez Johnson Jr. and Mara are both getting going in the paint. They are 13-0 when the duo scores 25 or more combined points in the same game, including 10-0 when they collaborate for at least 30.

Mara and Johnson are both physical in their own unique ways, but the scoring will come from Mara. Although an elite shot-blocker, Krivas can struggle to defend on the ball at times, and he has never gone head-to-head with anyone who has Mara's combination of height, footwork, and mobility. If there is one matchup Michigan has to target on the block, it is Krivas on Mara.

Since losing Cason, Michigan has also utilized Mara as a secondary facilitator. Mara's passing has been the most underrated element of the Wolverines' Final Four run; he averaged 5.0 assists through their first three NCAA Tournament games before struggling through foul trouble against Tennessee.

Mara has to watch the fouls to remain on the court against the Wildcats and cannot find himself in a similar position to the one he was in against Tennessee. The Wolverines will not beat Arizona without him, as he holds all the keys to hitting the Big 12 Champions where it hurts and beating Lloyd at his own game.

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