Karen Guregian’s football analysis is sponsored by Jeffrey Glassman Injury Lawyers , a Leading Boston Personal Injury Firm.
SAN FRANCISCO - A dozen years after the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks competed in one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time, they meet again.
Instead of Tom Brady and Russell Wilson , Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, this sequel has Drake Maye and Sam Darnold the combatants at quarterback, and Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald calling the shots on the sideline for Super Bowl 60.
Maye was a 12-year-old NFL wannabe when Malcolm Butler stepped in front of Seahawks wide receiver Ricardo Lockette in the end zone, and picked off a Russell Wilson pass with less than a minute to play to help the Patriots escape with a 28-24 win.
But Sunday, all eyes will be on Maye, the Patriots second-year quarterback, and if he can deliver a seventh championship to the organization.
The Seahawks, who are favored in the game, were the NFC’s top-seeded team, while the Patriots, who are trying to complete their last-to-first turnaround, were No. 2 in the AFC.
Both teams finished 14-3 in the regular season.
Who has the edge at each position?
Here’s the breakdown:
QUARTERBACKS
Breakdown: Drake Maye hasn’t come close to the MVP-caliber form he exhibited during the regular season, but he’s still delivered at critical times - with his arm and his legs - during the postseason to get the Patriots to the championship game.
He’s also had to deal with wintry conditions, which has impacted his effectiveness, along with a bad shoulder.
But Maye appears to be good on that front.
Sam Darnold was good during the regular season, throwing for over 4,000 yards, but was also responsible for 20 turnovers (14 picks, 6 fumbles). He’s upped his game during the postseason, with 470 passing yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Both are mobile quarterbacks who can throw effectively on the fly.
Still, it’s hard to erase the images of a few Darnold meltdowns in the past. On the opposite side, it’s easy to believe that Maye will be able to up his game in more favorable conditions.
Edge:Patriots
RUNNING BACKS
Breakdown:No team relies on the run game more than the Seahawks.
Kenneth Walker III rushed for 1,027 yards during the season (4.6). The Seahawks, however, lost Zach Charbonnet , the second half of the dynamic duo, to a torn ACL during the postseason run. He rushed for 730 yards and had 12 touchdowns during the year.
The Patriots lost their No. 2 - Antonio Gibson - early in the year. But Rhamondre Stevenson has been on a two-month tear, and TreVeyon Henderson has chipped in with his share of splash plays.
While Stevenson’s numbers don’t necessarily stand out, he’s been money in the fourth quarter closing out games.
Walker and Stevenson are comparable statistically over the course of their last five games.
Walker averaged 122 scrimmage yards per game, with 6.4 yards per touch, five touchdowns. Stevenson, meanwhile, averaged 102 yards per game, with 6.8 yards per touch and six touchdowns in that time.
Explosive plays?
Stevenson leads all backs with 17, while Walker ranks second with 16.
Yards after contact?
Walker (337 yards) and Stevenson (312).
Overall, with Charbonnet out, Walker is the lone threat. There’s isn’t much behind him.
The Patriots have more depth, and a quarterback who is very good at running the football.
Edge:Patriots
WIDE RECEIVERS
Breakdown:In Jaxon Smith-Njigba , the Seahawks have the best receiver in both rooms. He’s one of the best wideouts in the game, and is impossible to cover.
The Seahawks line him up all over the lot, which really stresses defenses.
Cooper Kupp , a former Super Bowl MVP, is still good, but not what he once was. Rashid Shaheed was a great pickup during the trade deadline. He’s a splash play threat and great returner.
The Patriots?
Stefon Diggs is at the top of the totom pole. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 10th-ranked receiver. The depth behind Diggs, meanwhile, has been good.
Kayshon Boutte has made spectacular plays down field all season and has led the team in the postseason (8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD). DeMario Douglas is explosive if he gets the ball in space, and Mack Hollins is dependable on any down given his height (6-4, 221 pounds), and catch radius. He offers Maye a contested catch option.
The presence of Smith-Injigba, however, moves the needle.
Edge:Seahawks
TIGHT ENDS
Breakdown:In a pinch, Drake Maye often looks to Hunter Henry to make a play and the tightend usually delivers.
Henry had the most touchdown catches (7) during the regular season, and second-most yards (768) and catches (60).
He’s added 10 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown during the postseason.
Austin Hooper has done well as the No. 2.
For the Seahawks, AJ Barner was pretty solid with 52 catches for 519 yards with six touchdowns. Eric Saubert is their second tight end and hasn’t been much of a factor.
Edge:Patriots
OFFENSIVE LINE
Breakdown:Both teams have earned respectable grades in pass and run blocking during the course of the season.
They’re both in the middle of the pack. In the postseason, once again, they’re closely positioned. Although, the Seahawks run blocking has been outstanding during the postseason.
Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell , back from an MCL injury, has struggled a bit against the top pass rushers he’s faced during the postseason. He said during the week he’s finally feeling more comfortable and back in sync.
Edge:Even
DEFENSIVE LINE
Breakdown:Seattle’s defensive line has been wreaked havoc all season.
DeMarcus Lawrence , Leonard Williams , who is an All-Pro, Boye Mafe , Byron Murphy II and Derick Hall were ranked sixth-best by PFF overall, and fourth-best against the run.
The Patriots front, with Milton Williams , K’Lavon Chaisson , Christian Barmore and Harold Landry have really come on since the return of Williams.
Landry has been battling injury all year. He wasn’t able to play in the AFC Championship game but has practiced this week.
The Patriots numbers against the run weren’t great during the year as a whole, but the unit has been much better during the postseason.
Seattle’s front has just been more consistently good throughout the season.
Edge:Seahawks
LINEBACKERS
Breakdown:Seattle’s linebackers defend the run well, and are terrific pass rushers.
Ernest Jones IV offers a rare double, as led the team in tackles (126) as well as interceptions (5). Drake Thomas and Uchenna Nwosu are also in the mix.
As for the Patriots, their linebacking corps has come on of late. Christian Elliss , Jack Gibbens and Jahlani Tavai have played well during the postseason.
Robert Spillane’s ankle injury, however, is a big deal. He’s been a force in stopping the run.
He has been saying all week he’s 100 percent certain he’ll play. But how good will he be? As it is, this was a re-aggravation of a prior injury.
Edge:Seattle
SECONDARY
Breakdown:This game will feature two of the better secondaries in the game.
The Patriots have Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez, with Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones rounding out the starters at cornerback.
The Seahawks feature All-Pro corner Devin Witherspoon. He has Josh Jobe and nickel back/safety Nick Emmanwari, suffered an ankle injury Wednesday during practice.
Coby Bryant and Julian Love are at safety, while the Patriots have Jaylinn Hawkins and rookie Craig Woodson .
Emmanwari’s injury makes this too close to call.
Edge:Even
SPECIAL TEAMS
Breakdown:
Andy Borregales converted 84.4% of his kicks during the regular season. He was 27 of 32. Of note, he was 4-for-4 from 50-plus yards.
Seattle’s Jason Myers had an 85.4 completion percentage, with many more attempts as he was 41 of 48. He had a long of 57 yards. Borregales’ long came from 59 yards out.
Seahawks punter Michael Dickson earned second-team All-Pro distinction, so he’s had a very good year.
Bryce Barringer, meanwhile, has been good, but hasn’t had his most consistent year. He struggled in the snow and wind in Denver during the AFC Championship game.
Marcus Jones is All-Pro second team as a returner. Rashid Shaheed is also a threat.
This is another close one.
Edge:Seahawks
COACHES
Breakdown: Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald were both Coach of the Year candidates.
Both have done great work with their respective teams.
Vrabel, however, came away with the award at the NFL Honors Thursday night. He was named the NFL Coach of the Year largely due to turning a four-win team into a 14-3 team.
Beyond the head coaches, both teams have particularly good offensive coordinators.
Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak, who expected to take over the LV Raiders, has worked his magic with Sam Darnold.
Ditto Josh McDaniels with Drake Maye.
In the end, the checkmark here is based on experience. Vrabel, at the very least, has experienced the spectre of the Super Bowl as a player. He’s been to the AFC Championship game twice as a coach.
McDaniels, meanwhile, has been a part of six championship teams with the Patriots. He was also named the NFL’s Assistant Coach of the Year. That has to count for something.
Edge:Patriots
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