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State of the Sox: Why a Jarren Duran-for-Isaac Paredes deal doesn’t help the Red Sox
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- State of the Sox: Why a Jarren Duran-for-Isaac Paredes deal doesn’t help the Red Sox
Just when it seemed as though the Red Sox were done with their roster-building for the offseason, there were reports this week that trade talks with the Houston Astros are ongoing. Or at least soon could be restarted.
When the Red Sox acquired Caleb Durbin from the Milwaukee Brewers just as camp began, it was widely assumed that the Sox were set with their infield. Durbin would play third, and someone, likely Marcelo Mayer , would handle most of the playing time at second base.
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But the Astros still have too many infielders and continue to discuss deals for Paredes. And the Red Sox still have too many outfielders and continue to show interest in Paredes.
Such a proposed swap makes little sense for the Red Sox, who would be addressing a position they already have filled while selling themselves short on Duran.
Certainly, a case could be made that Durbin is already the superior defensive player to Paredes at third. The defensive metrics remind us that Paredes is not even an average defender at third while Durbin had five defensive runs saved at a position that he had not played much before last season.
And while Paredes, for now, has demonstrated more power than Durbin, he’s hit more than 20 homers just once in four full seasons. A proven slugger he’s not.
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Obtaining Paredes would almost certainly mean that Durbin would be shifted to second base, where he played for much of his minor league career. But it would also effectively block Mayer — not just for this year, but the near future.
Durbin has five years of control remaining. Paredes has — more on this later — two. Shortstop Trevor Story is under control for two more seasons.
It’s a given that Mayer has yet to demonstrate he can be an everyday contributor at the big league level, which is one of the reasons that manager Alex Cora fired his warning shot two weeks ago, making it clear that Mayer wasn’t guaranteed anything for the upcoming season.
But only a year ago, Mayer was a Top 10 prospect in the game. His ceiling remains significant. If the Sox add Paredes to the current infield mix, they’ll be giving up on Mayer for the foreseeable future.
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It would be far better to start the year with Mayer as more or less the regular season baseman and determine what he can do. Defensively, there seems little question about his ability to handle the position. If he struggles some with the bat, especially against lefthanded pitching, the Red Sox could find at-bats for Andruw Monasterio , and eventually, Romy Gonzalez .
Having one unproven starter in the lineup wouldn’t represent much of a risk.
Then there’s the issue of Duran, whose value is considerably higher than that of Paredes. It was only two seasons ago that Duran was the team’s MVP and the MVP of the All-Star Game.
Though streaky, he can be a dynamic player. He has speed (91 of 108 in career stolen base attempts) and above-average slug, having combined for 62 doubles and triples in 2024 and 54 last season. Over the last three seasons, he’s compiled a .471 slugging percentage.
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Even if the Red Sox seem uninterested in negotiating a contract extension with him, Duran has three full years of control remaining, or, one more than Paredes.
It’s true that, in a crowded outfield, Duran’s chance to impact the Red Sox may be lessened. For now, he’s in line to get most of his at-bats via the DH spot, with Gold Glovers Ceddanne Rafaela (center field) and Wilyer Abreu (right field) assured of more regular playing time in the field. Plus, the Red Sox aren’t about to consign a 21-year-old Roman Anthony to DH duties.
But with Duran gone, an injury to any of the outfielders would put some stress on the roster. Do the Red Sox really want to rely on a platoon of Masataka Yoshida and Nate Eaton ?
It may well be that Duran never consistently reaches the heights once expected of him. He’s not without his flaws, including a strikeout rate that’s higher than it should be and a propensity to misplay balls in left. (He’s the rare outfielder who’s better suited for center rather than one of the corner spots).
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But if the Red Sox view Duran as expendable and a trade piece, surely they could better than Paredes. The best time to deal Duran would have been after his career-best 2024 season, or, earlier this offseason before all the chairs got filled throughout the game.
Including Duran in a trade to acquire, say, Ketel Marte , a five-tool player, would have made sense; dealing him for an unremarkable piece like Paredes does not.
(We’re assuming, by the way, that the Astros would have to include more than Paredes in any swap, since a pure 1-for-1 trade is lopsided in Houston’s favor).
If the Red Sox get to the deadline and are in obvious need of an infield upgrade, that would be one thing. But forcing a trade before the season start while blocking Mayer represents a step backward for a team intent on contending — now and in the future.
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