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Ten Boston Red Sox stats that could tell the story of the 2026 season
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- Ten Boston Red Sox stats that could tell the story of the 2026 season
FanGraphs projects the 2026 Red Sox to win 86 games , three fewer wins than they had in 2025.
There are concerns about the roster, including whether their offense has enough home run power.
Questions will begin to be answered this week. The Red Sox open their regular season in Cincinnati on Thursday at 4:10 p.m.
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Below are 10 stats that could tell the story of the 2026 Red Sox season.
1) 3.92 starter ERA
The Red Sox had the 12th best starter ERA (3.92) among the 30 major league teams last season. That’s solid, but the Red Sox need to crack the top five this season after significant pitching acquisitions, including signing Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million contract and trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo .
“I don’t think there’s a question anymore that the identity of our team and the strength of our team is going to be our pitching and our ability to prevent runs,” Craig Breslow said during Suárez’s introductory press conference .
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2) 116 errors
Run prevention not only means strong pitching but also top-notch defense.
The Red Sox’ 116 errors last year led MLB. They can’t give another 116 extra outs this year.
Their outfield defense was elite with center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and right fielder Wilyer Abreu winning Gold Gloves .
Infield defense was the issue. The Red Sox improved their infield defense on paper. New first baseman Willson Contreras ranked in the 90th percentile in outs above average (6) for the Cardinals last season.
New third baseman Caleb Durbin recorded five defensive runs saved in 1,060 ⅔ innings at third base as a rookie for the Brewers last summer.
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Marcelo Mayer, who won the second base job , has the ability to be a plus defender at second, shortstop and third base.
Shortstop Trevor Story had a solid year last season but struggled in September with throws to first base. His range also needs to be better this year.
3) 186 home runs
The 2025 Red Sox ranked 15th in the majors in home runs (186). Their power decreased as the season progressed, which is unsurprising after trading Rafael Devers while also losing Alex Bregman , Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu to lengthy IL stints. Boston hit the third fewest home runs (49) during August and September.
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FanGraphs’ 2026 ZiPS projections show no Red Sox player reaching 20 home runs.
But there are several Red Sox players who have power potential, including Anthony, who slugged 97 points better in his final 40 games than he did in his first 31 games as a rookie in 2025.
Anthony, Abreu and Jarren Duran are three players to watch who should hit more home runs than they did last year.
“I’m pretty sure somebody’s going to hit 20,” Cora said, reacting to Red Sox players combining for 10 home runs in the World Baseball Classic.
4) .295 on-base percentage, 42.2% chase percentage
Cora mentioned Ceddanne Rafaela has the ability to hit for more power but it depends on better plate discipline and catching up with fastballs.
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Rafaela needs to produce a better on-base percentage than his .295 mark in 2025.
Rafaela makes hard contact in the zone but his hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity ends up being below the league average because he makes soft contact on balls he connects with outside of the strike zone. His 42.2% chase percentage in 2025 ranked in the second percentile among qualified major league hitters.
5) 22.4% strikeout percentage, 556 strikeouts
The Red Sox’ bullpen performed well in 2025, posting the second best ERA (3.41) and the ninth best win probability added (5.63).
The average velocity on four-seam and two-seam fastballs among Red Sox relievers increased from 94.2 mph in ‘24 to 95.4 mph in 2025 (tied for third best in MLB).
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That said, the Red Sox were tied for 18th in reliever strikeout percentage (22.4%) despite closer Aroldis Chapman ’s dominant 37.3% rate. They need more strikeouts from the rest of the bullpen.
6) 6.6% walk percentage
Closer Aroldis Chapman had a 6.6% walk percentage in 2025, much improved from his career 12.2% mark.
Chapman avoided stressful ninth innings while converting 32 of 34 save opportunities.
It’s so important Chapman continues to throw strikes.
7) 18.7% strikeout percentage
The Sox had an 18.7% strikeout percentage with a runner at third base and fewer than two outs during the final two months — an improvement from 21.3% in the first four months.
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They had the third most whiffs ( 2,143 ) after the first four months, then the eighth fewest ( 905 ) during the final two months of the 2025 season.
Boston needs to do what it did in the final two months throughout the entire 2026 season.
Both Cora and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow mentioned putting the ball in play with runners in scoring position as something extremely important this season.
“It’s not that all of a sudden we’re gonna choke up and put the ball in play, but there’s gonna be a mindset,” Cora said.
8) 9.9% strikeout percentage
Durbin’s strength is making contact and avoiding strikeouts.
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He had a 9.9% strikeout percentage in 2025, ranking in the 98th percentile among major leaguers. He had just a 13.0% whiff percentage.
With the Red Sox putting such an emphasis on contact, Durbin needs to replicate last year’s performance.
Trevor Story is expected to begin the season as Boston’s No. 2 hitter . But Durbin could work his way into that spot.
9) .187 second half batting average
Carlos Narváez logged 952 innings behind the plate in 2025, ninth most among catchers.
He dealt with a knee injury that required offseason surgery . That probably factored into his offensive stats declining in the second half. But workload also likely played a factor.
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The workload was 386 ⅔ innings more than he had caught in any previous professional season.
He batted .273 with a .347 on-base percentage and .439 slugging percentage in 73 games during the first half but just .187 with a .233 on-base percentage and .387 slugging percentage in 45 games during the second half.
For Narváez’s workload to decrease to stay fresh, backup catcher Connor Wong needs to play better.
Wong’s framing improved last year but he batted just .190 and didn’t record an extra-base hit until July 25.
10) .774 OPS
Duran needs to get back to his 2024 form when he had a .834 OPS. His OPS (.774) in 2025 was 60 points lower.
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He’s expected to bat third where he’s had success in his career. He has a .846 OPS in 118 plate appearances in that spot during his career.
He needs to hit better against lefties. He had a .600 OPS against lefties compared to an .852 OPS against righties in 2025.
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