No. 20 Texas Tech basketball matches up with No. 11 Oklahoma: Scouting report, prediction

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No. 20 Texas Tech basketball matches up with No. 11 Oklahoma: Scouting report, prediction

Nathan Giese, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal · Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Sat, Jan 27, 2024 ·

4 min read

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The way Grant McCasland looks at it, every game in Big 12 play is its own one-game season. For the 20th-ranked Texas Tech basketball team , ithe next season starts on the road against a No. 11 Oklahoma team trying to avoid back-to-back setbacks on its home floor.

The Red Raiders got a breather after last Saturday's comeback win over BYU . Players got a couple days off between then as they prepare for the Sooners , who suffered a 75-60 loss to rival Texas on Tuesday.

McCasland doesn't see the Sooners playing with any great sense of urgency against the Red Raiders on Saturday at 1 p.m. in the Lloyd Noble Center. He does, however, expect to see a different version of Oklahoma than what Texas faced.

"I think what you end up doing," McCasland said, "is maybe trying to dive into some things that you knew over the course of the year that maybe you needed to make some adjustments on and it makes it quicker to make them. I'm not sure exactly what that will be going into this game. I just know that (Porter Moser's) as good as there (is) in the country of making adjustments and they'll have one for this one."

One area McCasland sees Oklahoma improving is its ability to turn over the opposition. The Sooners forced 14 turnovers per game in non-conference play. That number has been halved to 7.67 in Big 12 games.

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"They're an effective team when they can turn you over," McCasland said. "I think in non-conference they did a good job of kind of creating advantages and transition by being disruptive. In league play, they haven't been as disruptive. I could see this being a point of emphasis, making it difficult for us to move the basketball, trying to be more aggressive in their coverages."

Even with wins in 10 of their last 11 games, and sitting in sole possession of first place of the Big 12 standings, McCasland knows the Red Raiders still have areas to sure up. The big one is rebounding, a battle Texas Tech has lost four times in their five conference games, three of which have been by double-digit deficits.

"For me," McCasland said, "rebounding is going to be the biggest area of improvement and I think it will be that way all year long."

Texas Tech's guard Chance McMillian (0) grabs the rebound against BYU in a Big 12 basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024, at United Supermarkets Arena.

Trends to watch

Saturday's game will feature two of the top free-throw shooting teams in the country. Texas Tech ranks 18th in the nation, converting 77.4% of its attempts at the stripe. Oklahoma is 33rd with a success rate of 76.1%.

Opponents have shot 37% from 3-point range against Texas Tech in Big 12 play. However, Oklahoma has converted just 28% of their attempts from the outside in the last five games.

Oklahoma's leading scorer Javian McCollum (14.6 points per game) is a 36% shooter from 3 on the season, though he's just 3-of-17 from beyond the arc in his last four games.

Key statistic

Expect a decent amount of foul shooting in this one. On top of the teams both being good at the stripe, they each average more than 19 free throw attempts per game. Texas Tech, though, is also one of the best at avoiding foul calls (seventh in the nation at 13.1 per game). Opponents have shot just 15 freebies in the last three games combined against the Red Raiders.

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Score prediction: Texas Tech 81, Oklahoma 77

Bottom line:If McCasland expects the Sooners to ramp up their defensive pressure looking for turnovers, he's got just the team to combat that. Texas Tech only averages 10.5 turnovers per game.

Big 12 Men's Basketball

No. 20 Texas Tech at No. 11 Oklahoma

When: Saturday, 1 p.m.

Where: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, Oklahoma

TV: ESPN+

Records: Texas Tech 15-3, 4-1; Oklahoma 15-4, 3-3

Notable: This will be Texas Tech's third game in a row against a ranked opponent. This will also start a stretch where the Red Raiders will be on the road in three of their next four games.