Ranking NFL's six* open head coaching jobs after Raiders dump Antonio Pierce

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Ranking NFL's six* open head coaching jobs after Raiders dump Antonio Pierce

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Thu, Jan 9, 2025 ·

19 min read

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Though "Black Monday" has evolved into something that's more of a battleship gray – Doug Pederson, formerly of the Jaguars, was the only NFL head coach fired the day after the 2024 regular season concluded – there are nevertheless (currently) a half-dozen vacancies across a league that remains in constant flux but has simply moved away from 24 hours of mass professional carnage.

Alternately, the diminution of Black Monday underscores the possibility – perhaps likelihood – that more changes are coming down the pike. Some owners simply take more time before rendering decisions – the Raiders' Mark Davis dismissed Antonio Pierce on Tuesday , then got rid of GM Tom Telesco on Thursday . Surprise retirements, resignations and the playoffs can instantly alter the landscape, too. There's also a unique circumstance this year as Mike McCarthy's contract is set to expire, but he can't negotiate with other teams until Jan. 14 – meaning he and the Dallas Cowboys will either come to a mutual agreement to remain professionally hitched or will opt for a divorce.

So while the list could certainly grow beyond six* openings, let's assess the current ones from most attractive to least:

1. New England Patriots

Quarterback situation

Tom Brady 's unparalleled achievements cast a very wide shadow here. Yet it appears that Drake Maye , the No. 3 pick in last year's draft, has a very good chance to be a very good long-term answer himself. Given its apparent weaknesses, the organization was probably wise to hold Maye back in the early stages of the 2024 campaign. However he frequently did a nice job making lemonade out of lemons, especially with his legs – Maye's 7.8 yards per attempt were the highest in the league among players with at least 50 rushes. His arm strength and moxie were also quite apparent. He'll obviously need more help in 2025 – and the team is well equipped to provide it – but the Pats were noticeably more competitive when Maye was on the field than they were under journeyman Jacoby Brissett .

Rookie Joe Milton's scintillating performance in Week 18 illustrated why New England carried the highly talented – but raw – sixth-round rookie on the active roster all season rather than expose him on the practice squad. Even if his long-term future isn't in Foxborough, he might be a valuable commodity in the future if he continues to progress. Adding a veteran backup will probably be necessary if Brissett doesn't re-sign.

Roster

It's not pretty. Bill Belichick, who had a large hand in constructing this team, was famous for getting the most out of individual players and tailoring game plans to their specific strengths. His very brief replacement, Jerod Mayo , couldn't do that in 2024, though – in fairness – neither did Belichick in 2023.

CBs Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones seem to be long-term building blocks along with DE Keion White . But one couldn't blame the Patriots if they invested all of their cap and draft resources in 2025 into the offense in a bid to support Maye. Ja'Lynn Polk was a notable disappointment in 2024, but he isn't the first wideout to struggle mightily as a rookie.

Salary cap

New England is projected to have nearly $124 million in available cap space this year, per OverTheCap , the most in the league. It's a tempting component of the job for the next coach given the opportunity to realistically target players he might want – perhaps a rising star like WR Tee Higgins , who's coming off a franchise tag in Cincinnati.

Executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf was mainly responsible for managing the roster in 2024. But owner Robert Kraft hasn't divulged what Wolf's role will be moving forward, though he is expected to remain with the organization.

2025 NFL draft

Sunday's victory against Buffalo was hardly meaningless – it cost the Patriots this year's No. 1 pick and dropped them to fourth in Round 1. And while falling three spots might not seem like an especially big deal for a team that won't be in the market for a young quarterback, significant capital was likely lost in a year where the QB crop appears thin and trading that top selection might have brought a nice return. New England does own an extra third-rounder.

Outlook

The presumption is that Kraft will pursue Mike Vrabel , who's already a proven NFL head coach – unlike Mayo – and also a Patriots legend who earned three rings as a linebacker in the early years of the Belichick-Brady dynasty and was a member of the legendary 18-1 team in 2007. But despite the quick pivots from Belichick to Mayo to whomever is next – and Kraft has rightly taken blame for the quick hook on Mayo – this is typically a first-class organization that knows what winning looks like and spares no expense or effort in pursuit of that goal. Kraft will surely take a painstaking approach to getting the next hire right, ensuring the org chart flows logically while passing the torch to someone who will have an enviable number of resources for what the fan base – and owner – will expect to be a resumption of Super Bowl aspirations.

2. Chicago Bears

Quarterback situation

Caleb Williams , the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft and widely regarded as a generational prospect, is supposed to be this franchise's savior. It didn't go that way during his highly uneven rookie season, when he too often reverted to his bad college habits by consistently trying to force the issue on lost plays while absorbing a league-worst 68 sacks. Yet Williams also flashed the brilliance that landed him in this position and, while he made plenty of mistakes in terms of game management, he also set a rookie record by throwing 353 consecutive passes without an interception. Bottom line, his presence and potential will be quite an enticement for prospective coaches – Ben Johnson? – eyeing this job.

There's also plenty to like about 24-year-old backup Tyson Bagent , but it would probably behoove the organization to bring in a veteran to tutor Williams and perhaps serve as a trusted sounding board for both youngsters.

Roster

There are plenty of good players here, notably WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze , who was picked eight spots after Williams, RB D'Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet – though their collective output was certainly depressed by the offense's dysfunction in 2024. The O-line has room to improve, but it shouldn't be inordinately blamed for Williams' outlandish sack total, the rookie causing quite a bit of self-sabotage.

The defense regressed but appears set in key spots with CB Jaylon Johnson , LB Tremaine Edmunds and pass rusher Montez Sweat . All of them need to play better in 2025, and the front seven could use reinforcements.

WR Keenan Allen and G Teven Jenkins are the most notable free agents.

Salary cap

The team is projected to have more than $80 million to spend in free agency, which is presently among the five highest bankrolls in the league. Talent acquisition hasn't been an issue for GM Ryan Poles, though it obviously needs to coalesce better under the next coaching staff.

2025 NFL draft

Poles' trade of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft has one more dividend to pay as the Bears own Carolina's second-rounder this year. That should mean Chicago picks four times among the top 72 selections, including 10th overall – and there's definitely more work to do in order to build up the supporting cast around Williams.

Outlook

The prospect of working with Williams on a rookie contract – and with so many other quality pieces in place – should make this a highly desirable job. However a rabid fan base looking for something more than 1985 highlights and memories will expect near-instant results – which won't be easy in the NFC North, which just sent its three other members into the postseason field . And while the roster is solid, whoever succeeds Matt Eberflus must also ensure there's philosophical alignment with team president Kevin Warren and Poles given the good work that was done in 2024 was undermined by a lack of appropriate coaching infrastructure to properly develop a rookie quarterback .

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback situation

Unlike numerous teams throughout the NFL, they have their guy in Trevor Lawrence – that certainty cemented by the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in June, tied for the second-largest contract in league history while linking him to the club through the 2030 season.

But there's a flip side to that stability given Lawrence has yet to live up to his billing as the top pick of the 2021 draft, when he was hyped as a prospect bound to make an impact on par with John Elway or Peyton Manning . Not only has that not happened – Lawrence has been a Pro Bowler one time and taken the Jags to the playoffs once – but injuries have undercut his performance the past two seasons.

After his rookie year was squandered by Urban Meyer, Lawrence generally played better under Pederson. But the next coach must certainly find a way to truly unlock his potential.

The backup situation will need to be addressed anew with Mac Jones headed for free agency.

Roster

Regardless of how one assesses Lawrence, there's a nice nucleus here. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was a breakout star on a receiver corps that already boasted Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram . The defense is stocked with a first-rate pass rusher in Josh Hines-Allen and promising youngsters like Travon Walker , Devin Lloyd and Tyson Campbell . Work needs to be done in the trenches, and the rushing attack in particular never really got on track in 2024.

A talent deficit is not a major issue in Duval County even if, overall, the whole has seemingly been less than the sum of the parts here for some time.

Salary cap

Barring any significant roster adjustments – Kirk has occasionally been involved in trade rumors, for example – the Jags should have about $35 million available, which puts them in the middle of the pack league-wide.

2025 NFL draft

Not only does Jacksonville have a top-five pick – No. 5 to be exact – that can be earmarked for the best available player, it has 10 selections overall, which should allow for great flexibility to maneuver around the board if not an opportunity to simply bring in more young talent.

Outlook

This team is only two years removed from winning the AFC South and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. It nearly won the division again in 2023 despite a rash of injuries. There's plenty to like here, from the players to the local golf courses.

Yet one intriguing element is the ongoing employment of GM Trent Baalke, who is about to work with his fifth different head coach (interim included) since he joined the front office in 2020. Pederson's successor will have to take that for what it's worth, but it's hard to ignore the power dynamic.

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4. New York Jets

Quarterback situation

So much to unpack here ... or pack.

Coming off a hugely disappointing year, Aaron Rodgers has been less than forthcoming about his future plans but is under contract for 2025 (and so is backup Tyrod Taylor ). Talented former Florida State star Jordan Travis effectively took a medical redshirt during his rookie year as he continues to work his way back from the grisly ankle injury that ended his Seminoles career late in the 2023 season.

Could be a lot of moving parts here … and there could just as easily be none.

Roster

Recently fired GM Joe Douglas brought plenty of talent into this building – and plenty of players favored by Rodgers – but it never got the Jets close to breaking the league's longest playoff drought , which now stands at 14 seasons. The high point of Douglas' tenure was a 2022 draft class that includes CB Sauce Gardner , WR Garrett Wilson – both rookies of the year on their respective sides of the ball – Pro Bowl OLB Jermaine Johnson II and RB Breece Hall . In yet another tricky obstacle course for the Jets' next brain trust to navigate, all are eligible for extensions this year – though Wilson was the only one of the quartet to play close to his ability in 2024. Johnson missed most of the season with a torn Achilles.

Brothers Quinnen and Quincy Williams have been defensive mainstays, and pass rusher Will McDonald IV had a breakthrough in his sophomore season. The offensive line improved yet will field two new tackles in 2025 with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses out of contract. CB D.J. Reed is the Jets' best player poised to hit the open market.

Midseason acquisition Davante Adams , 32, generally played well given the circumstances, but it would be a surprise if his future isn't tied to Rodgers'. Adams' contract would have to be adjusted if he remains given he's out of guarantees, and his base salary spikes to $35.7 million each of the next two seasons.

Salary cap

As matters stand now, the Jets have nearly $30 million in cap room. But given the uncertainty around Rodgers, Adams and probably others, that figure seems bound to be fluid.

2025 NFL draft

They'll select seventh overall in Round 1 – but in a year with an unimpressive quarterback crop. They own the Lions' third-rounder (96th overall) … but surrendered their own – which comes 23 spots earlier – to acquire Adams in October.

Outlook

Quite obviously, a very mixed bag – one with the potential for an instant about-face given the talent quotient if not necessarily set up for the restart a new coach and general manager might prefer. From a cap standpoint, it probably makes sense to retain Rodgers – if he even wants to play – given how difficult it will be to obtain anyone worthy of promoting as the next quarterbacking savior in 2025. Yet Rodgers' presence would doubtless be problematic for a new regime trying to lay the groundwork for sustained success, which will be inherently difficult given the impatient nature and problematic reputation that continues to dog owner Woody Johnson – though he is unfailingly willing to invest resources into his wayward football team. Buyer enjoy and buyer beware.

5. New Orleans Saints

Quarterback situation

Meh? Since coming to the Big Easy in 2023, Derek Carr has pretty much been what he was with the Raiders – solid, steady ... unspectacular. He's essentially exemplified the league average, going 14-13 in 27 starts with the Saints and posting a 98.8 QB rating that's seven points better than his mark with the Raiders. It's a decent body of work, especially considering the protection problems Carr has had and a steady rate of injuries affecting him (he missed seven games in 2024) and his receiver corps.

It's also not exactly what New Orleans was hoping for after signing Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract – the franchise trying to restore itself as an NFC South power after wallowing around .500 following Drew Brees ' retirement in the aftermath of the 2020 season. Yet it's been status quo at best with Carr, the club still mired in a rut and failing again to qualify for its first playoff game since Brees and Co. were ousted four years ago.

Youngsters Spencer Rattler , 24, and Jake Haener , 25, struggled while getting shots to play when Carr was unavailable. Rattler's intriguing potential dates to his high school days and sometimes-promising tenures at the University of Oklahoma and University of South Carolina. The rookie was the first quarterback drafted last year outside the first round (Round 5) and didn't exactly get to play with a full deck given the Saints' heap of injury issues.

New Orleans is scheduled to pick ninth in the first round of this year's draft. Cutting Carr would mean a $50 million dead cap hit but would spare the Saints from paying his base salary, which balloons from $1.2 million in 2024 to $30 million next season and $50 million in 2026. It would also stand to reason that a new coach, especially an offensively minded one, probably would prefer to chart a course that doesn't include Carr in what would likely be a temporary role.

Roster

Several name brands here – LB Demario Davis , DE Cam Jordan and RB Alvin Kamara among them. But aside from Kamara, who recently signed a two-year extension, they're all pretty much in concerning decline. GM Mickey Loomis admitted after Dennis Allen's midseason firing that the former head coach had been victimized by "an avalanche of injuries."

The future foundation will seemingly be comprised of relative youngsters such as DT Bryan Bresee , LT Taliese Fuaga, DE Carl Granderson , C Erik McCoy , CB Kool-Aid McKinstry , WR Chris Olave , G Cesar Ruiz, WR Rashid Shaheed , DB Alontae Taylor and LB Pete Werner . It doesn't necessarily seem like a nascent powerhouse, yet it's also far from an empty cupboard.

Salary cap

No team runs up the NFL version of credit card debt like this one, and it could be an important consideration for anyone who chooses to team with Loomis, who just finished his 23rd season with the small-market franchise and is currently the league's longest-serving general manager. The Saints typically spread out contractual cap hits by adding void years to player contracts. New Orleans is presently more than $50 million overspent in 2025 – the largest figure in the league by orders of magnitude – and that's before incurring the potential hit that would be created by parting with Carr. The team typically does a series of significant restructures and/or releases every March to become cap compliant, but that can handcuff the Saints once free agency begins in earnest. DE Chase Young , who signed a one-year, $13 million pact, was the only significant addition in 2024.

2025 NFL draft

Their organic picks mean they'll select in the top 10 in each of the first four rounds. Trading CB Marshon Lattimore at midseason also upped the arsenal nicely, the Pro Bowler netting an extra third- and fourth-rounder in a deal with the Commanders. The added capital at least provides flexibility if Loomis opts to pursue a passer.

Outlook

When you're talking about one of 32 jobs, prospective candidates are unlikely to turn their noses up at this one. There's enough to like and (currently) a stable enough front office and ownership situation that the next man up should get a decent runway to flourish. Few fans are as passionate as New Orleans', and the civic bond to the organization was only strengthened by Hurricane Katrina. This job may rate lower among the vacancies, but that doesn't mean it's one to run from.

6. Las Vegas Raiders

Quarterback situation

If you've got five, as the Silver and Black did at the end of their season, the problem is self-evident. Aidan O'Connell, Desmond Ridder and rookie Carter Bradley wound up on the active roster with Gardner Minshew II on injured reserve and Jake Luton on the practice squad. Statistically, the Raiders actually had a middling passing game in 2024, if only because of a complete inability to run the ball.

But it was patently obvious why they coveted Jayden Daniels in last year's draft. O'Connell has shown enough to be a bridge to the future and maybe a long-term backup – roles that Minshew has capably executed. But barring the pursuit of, say, Sam Darnold , difficult to discern where a 2025 solution is emanating from.

Roster

Brock Bowers had the best season, from a numbers standpoint, of any rookie tight end in NFL history and should be part of this foundation for some time. The offensive line is solid, WR Jakobi Meyers had his first 1,000-yard season, and DE Maxx Crosby is one of the league's true game wreckers when he's on the field – which wasn't the case in recent weeks due to an ankle injury. DT Christian Wilkins only appeared in five games after signing a huge contract in free agency. Tyree Wilson , the No. 7 pick in 2023, hasn't been impactful.

Telesco's replacement probably has to at least consider trading Crosby, who has in many ways become the face of the franchise but has also grown tired of losing. His value is unlikely to get any higher.

Salary cap

Las Vegas will have more than $100 million for free agency – only the Patriots are expected to have more casino chips – which could make the Raiders a player for someone like Darnold if he becomes available and certainly opens up additional possibilities.

2025 NFL draft

With the Jets' third-rounder at their disposal, the Silver and Black have four of the top 73 selections, including No. 6 overall – though there appear to be three QB-needy teams ahead of them (Titans, Browns, Giants). Regardless, the Raiders could be in striking of distance of passers like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders … if they so choose.

Outlook

If this franchise is indeed turning around, it's reversing course with the speed of an aircraft carrier (which isn't quickly for you non-sailors). The next coach will be Las Vegas' fifth, interim ones included, over a five-season period, so stability has obviously been lacking. And it will be interesting to monitor the role of Brady, who's now a minority stakeholder in the organization and seems even more likely to be influential in terms of philosophical and personnel input following Telesco's ouster. He's already reportedly attempted to woo Belichick away from UNC .

Pierce consistently got this team to play hard, but the horsepower hasn't been there. And re-establishing a "Commitment to Excellence" will likely only get tougher with the Raiders left by the wayside as the other three AFC West teams prepare for postseason, the Chargers and Broncos well ahead on their reboots and pursuit of the champion Chiefs. But at least initial expectations here should be manageable ... theoretically.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL coach jobs ranked best to worst after Raiders fire Antonio Pierce

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