Who is College Football Playoff-bound , and who will be stuck in second-tier bowl misery? It's a riddle that's nearly solved, but not quite. Only conference championship games remain ahead of the CFP's bracket release, which means for most teams, no more ink can go on the résumé. At this point, the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Mountain West title games control what's left of the conversation. But those games can also have at least a mild impact on how teams not playing for a league crown — Alabama included — are perceived. A look at where the Crimson Tide stands:
The short answer is, probably not. The Crimson Tide would have been in far better shape had it taken care of business against Oklahoma , but a 24-3 loss to the Sooners relegated UA to fringe consideration. Alabama needed as much upheaval as possible in Week 14. It got enough of it — South Carolina 's win over Clemson , Texas ' win over Texas A&M , and Syracuse's win over Miami — to position itself for an outside shot at the CFP. But other games, such as Georgia's win over Georgia Tech and Tennessee 's win over Vanderbilt, didn't help the Crimson Tide.
Entering Tuesday's rankings release from the CFP selection committee, Alabama is ranked 13th . Its 28-14 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, combined with Week 14 losses by Miami and Clemson, could propel UA forward. Currently, ESPN gives Alabama a 30% chance to reach the playoff, but then again, ESPN's predictor is being rather generous with the percentage chances that it's handing out to bubble teams. There's not much that can happen on conference championship weekend that can help Alabama, but one game that might offer some assistance is SMU vs. Clemson in the ACC title game. An SMU win would knock Clemson out of the playoff picture, perhaps opening a slot for Alabama. By contrast, a Clemson win is far less likely to bounce the Mustangs out of the party. The official bracket will be announced on Sunday.
Here's how we see the CFP bracket shaping up:
Automatic bids: SEC champion Georgia, ACC champion Clemson, Big Ten champion Oregon , Big 12 champion Arizona State, Mountain West champion Boise State .
At-large bids: Texas, Tennessee, SMU, Ohio State , Penn State , Indiana , Notre Dame.
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Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Will Alabama football reach the CFP? Bracket, scenarios, predictions
