12 Pivotal Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff Field

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12 Pivotal Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff Field

Steven Lassan · Athlon Sports

Thu, Nov 6, 2025 ·

10 min read

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With the release of the first College Football Playoff selection committee rankings on Tuesday night, the final stretch of the 2025 season has arrived. Just five weeks of games remain before the playoff and bowl matchups are set on Dec. 7. While the list of remaining contests is dwindling, the month of November still has several impact games that will significantly play a role in shaping the playoff rankings or conference title outlooks.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana are on a collision course for a showdown in the Big Ten Championship. But the Buckeyes will get a shot at rival Michigan on Nov. 29, while conference foes in Oregon, Washington, Iowa, and USC all face critical make-or-break matchups down the stretch.

The SEC is loaded with intriguing games in November, including Oklahoma-Alabama, Texas A&M-Texas, and Texas-Georgia.

Which games will have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff in November? Athlon Sports' editors Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood break down the top 12:

12 Pivotal Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff Field

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day and Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29)
The expectation is that the Buckeyes will run the table until The Game, considering Purdue, UCLA and Rutgers are a combined 9-17. Even with a loss to the Wolverines, Ohio State is a lock for the College Football Playoff and, in all likelihood, the Big Ten championship. Of course, coach Ryan Day would love to put an end to the four-game losing streak in this heated rivalry, but the Buckeyes will be up against a Michigan team fighting for its playoff life. The Wolverines still have to win at Northwestern (5-3) and Maryland (4-4), but a 10-2 Wolverines team with a win over the reigning national champions would almost certainly earn a spot in the CFP. - Kyle Wood

HEISMAN RANKINGS: Top candidates entering Week 11

2. Texas A&M at Texas (Nov. 28)
The return of the Lone Star Showdown didn't disappoint last season, as both Texas A&M and Texas had playoff and SEC Championship Game hopes riding on the meeting in College Station. The stakes could be just as high on Nov. 28 for the second matchup between the Aggies and Longhorns as SEC members. If Texas knocks off Georgia in Week 12, this game against Texas A&M is likely the only obstacle to a playoff appearance. And for the Aggies, this contest could clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game or solidify their case for seeding in the playoff. After a slow start, Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has played some of his best ball of the season. Manning needs a strong finish for Texas to finish its late-season run and make the playoff. The matchup of the Aggies' offense against a standout Longhorns' defense should be one of the most-anticipated battles in November. Will Texas A&M get revenge and keep Texas out of the playoff? Or will the Longhorns win again and potentially end the Aggies' perfect record? - Steven Lassan

3. Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15)
Texas hasn't quite met expectations as the preseason No. 1 team, but coach Steve Sarkisian's squad still has a chance to make the playoff. The Longhorns are heating up at the right time, with quarterback Arch Manning throwing six touchdowns over the last two games and looking like the player most expected to rank among the top signal-callers in the nation. Georgia knocked off Texas twice last season, including an overtime thriller in the SEC Championship Game. Coach Kirby Smart's defense isn't as dominant as some of the previous groups in Athens. However, this unit is still a standout group (4.98 yards per play allowed). The back-and-forth battle between Georgia's defense and Sarkisian's offense is a must-see matchup. The Texas' defense will also make life difficult for quarterback Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs' rushing attack. - Lassan

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson warms up before a game against South Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Sept. 7, 2024, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.© Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

4. Oklahoma at Alabama (Nov. 15)
The Sooners lost their margin for error two weeks ago when they fell to Ole Miss. Now, they have to run the table the rest of the way against a gauntlet that begins on the road against the Crimson Tide. For what it's worth, Oklahoma stunned Alabama a season ago, but these are very different teams this time around. The Tide can still afford to drop another game for playoff purposes, but another loss would factor into the SEC championship race. And 'Bama would much prefer to not be in a must-win scenario in the Iron Bowl, where strange things tend to happen. - Wood

BOWL PROJECTIONS: Predicting the postseason matchups entering Week 11

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King (10) throws against Clemson in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field on Sep 13, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

5. Georgia vs. Georgia Tech (Mercedes Benz-Stadium, Nov. 28)
Depending on how the next few weeks unfold, the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets could both be fighting for an at-large spot when they descend on Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Of course, Georgia and Georgia Tech are in position to win their respective conferences, but that's far from a certainty. The Bulldogs likely have a stronger case for an at-large spot with or without a win in this game, while the Yellow Jackets might need to knock off their rival to wind up in the field if they don't win the ACC. For the first time since the inaugural CFP, Georgia Tech will be playing for its own playoff spot rather than just to spoil Georgia's postseason hopes. - Wood

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6. BYU at Texas Tech (Nov. 8)
The winner of this weekend's game has a clear path to the Big 12 title game, where the Cougars and Red Raiders could meet again in a month's time. BYU is in a better spot without a loss on its résumé, but its remaining schedule includes a visit from a dangerous TCU team and a trip to Cincinnati. Neither of those games are guaranteed wins. Meanwhile, Texas Tech wraps the year at home against UCF and at West Virginia, a much easier end to the year. However, a second loss complicates the path to the conference championship and thus, the playoff. The Big 12 looks like a two-bid league today, but that could change once one of these teams goes down. - Wood

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (5) throws a pass before the game against Indiana at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Oregon.Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

7. Oregon at Washington (Nov. 29)
Washington checked in at No. 23 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but coach Jedd Fisch's team is squarely in the mix to make the 12-team field. With upcoming games against Wisconsin, Purdue, and UCLA, odds favor the Huskies reaching 9-2 before the Nov. 29 showdown against Oregon. Washington has won three out of the last four in this series, including a 36-33 thriller in Seattle in '23. The Ducks dominated the Huskies 49-21 last year, but this season's meeting should be a lot closer. Washington quarterback Demond Williams (318.3 total yards a game) will test an Oregon defense holding teams to 13.5 points a contest entering Week 11. - Lassan

HEISMAN RANKINGS: Top candidates entering Week 11

8. Vanderbilt at Tennessee (Nov. 29)
Tennessee's loss to Oklahoma dropped coach Josh Heupel's team out of the playoff mix with three losses. However, the potential stakes for the annual showdown in the Volunteer State may never be higher for Vanderbilt. If the Commodores knock off Auburn and Kentucky, coach Clark Lea's team will be sitting at 9-2 and likely on the playoff bubble entering Knoxville on Nov. 29. Never bet against Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, but the Commodores have won only three times in Knoxville since 1976. - Lassan

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass in the first half against Michigan at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 11, 2025, in Los Angeles, California.© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

9. USC at Oregon (Nov. 22)
With games at Iowa and Washington, along with this home date versus USC, Oregon has one of the toughest November stretches for a team in the playoff hunt. If the Ducks lose at Iowa on Nov. 8, coach Dan Lanning's team won't have any margin for error, which potentially makes this showdown a make-or-break matchup. That's certainly the case on the USC sideline, as coach Lincoln Riley's team hosts Northwestern and Iowa before coming to Eugene. If the Trojans survive those two, beating the Ducks is a must to get into the playoff. There will be no shortage of offense with both teams averaging over 38 points a game and a matchup featuring two of the Big Ten's top quarterbacks in Jayden Maiava (USC) and Dante Moore (Oregon). The Ducks have won three in a row over USC. The Trojans have not won in Autzen Stadium since '11. - Lassan

OVERRATED TEAMS: Two teams the committee missed on in its first rankings

10. Notre Dame at Pitt (Nov. 15)
If Notre Dame knocks off Navy on Nov. 8, the biggest remaining obstacle to a playoff spot for coach Marcus Freeman's team would be this matchup in the Steel City. Pitt has reeled off five wins in a row behind true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel and owns one of the ACC's top defenses by limiting teams to 4.7 yards per snap. Since an 0-2 start, the Fighting Irish have looked like a top-10 team during the six-game losing streak, with quarterback CJ Carr getting better with every snap and an improving defense. Notre Dame has won four in a row in this series, but Pitt is 9-3 at home over the last two years. - Lassan

Brigham Young quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) throws the ball against West Virginia during the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Oct. 3, 2025, in Provo, Utah.

11. BYU at Cincinnati (Nov. 22)
The Bearcats are still alive in the Big 12 race even after last week's loss. Like virtually every team on the bubble, they just have to win out. It's a tall task for a Cincinnati team that was just blown out on the road, but it's not impossible. The Cougars, on the other hand, can bounce back from a potential loss to Texas Tech and still wind up in the conference championship — assuming they handle the rest of their schedule. And if BYU beats Texas Tech this week, there's room for error the rest of the way, though this could be the last remaining hurdle to a potentially undefeated regular season, likely assuring an at-large spot regardless of the Big 12 champion. - Wood

12. Tulane at Memphis (Nov. 7)As damning a loss as the Green Wave just endured, it was only their first in conference play. That ties them with the Tigers — and what seems like half of the American — and puts a little extra weight on Friday's game. Tulane still has a strong résumé with nonconference wins over Northwestern and Duke, but Jon Sumrall's team has to be perfect from here on out. The same can be said of Memphis, which closes the season against three of those one-loss teams jockeying for position in pursuit of a spot in the conference title game. The winner of the American will most likely end up in the CFP, and either of these teams is capable of earning that spot.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Nov 6, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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