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What CFP rankings told us about Group of Five playoff race, and why Tulane's path is simple
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- What CFP rankings told us about Group of Five playoff race, and why Tulane's path is simple
Tulane football didn't play on Nov. 18, but the Green Wave might as well have gotten another win.
Tulane (8-2, 4-2 American Conference ) was the only Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff rankings that were released on Nov. 18. Though the only rankings that matter are the ones released the day after the conference title games, the latest poll cements the Green Wave as the team to beat in the race to the CFP.
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It's far from over, though. The selection committee has now released three different sets of rankings. In the first on Nov. 4, Memphis was the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The Tigers then fell to Tulane and lost the spot. On Nov. 11, South Florida was the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The Bulls then fell to Navy and lost the spot.
Tulane has two regular-season games left: Nov. 22 at Temple and Nov. 29 home against Charlotte. The game against the Owls looms as the only real test for the Green Wave, as Charlotte has yet to win a conference game and has been dreadful this season. If Tulane wins those two games and wins the American Conference title game a week later, the Green Wave are going to the playoff.
Why rankings help Tulane on two fronts
The American looks like it could be headed for a multi-team tie at the top of the conference. Tulane, Navy, North Texas and ECU all only have one conference loss, and none of them play each other over the final two weeks of the season. Navy has to play at Memphis, but the rest of those teams will be favored in their remaining games.
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That's where the conference's tiebreakers come in. If multiple teams are tied, the highest-ranked team in the last CFP rankings of the regular-season (the ones released on Nov. 25) gets to go to the title game. Tulane's spot in the rankings essentially ensures that the Green Wave will not only go to the title game, but they'll host it as the top team in the conference if they win their next two games.
North Texas cracked the Top 25 in the AP poll and the US LBM Coaches Poll, while Navy was the first team out in both polls. With Navy on an open week, it's more likely that North Texas gets ranked next week. That would mean Tulane and North Texas would play in the conference title game, with Navy getting hurt by the fact that a resume-boosting win on Thanksgiving wouldn't affect the tiebreakers.
ECU has three losses and needs those teams to lose to have a shot at reaching the conference title game.
Why James Madison needs help to get to the CFP
James Madison was the highest-ranked Group of Five team in both the AP and coaches polls, but the committee clearly didn't agree with that. The Dukes don't have any opportunities to make major improvements to their resume. They play Washington State and Coastal Carolina before a projected Sun Belt Conference title matchup against Southern Miss.
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The Dukes' only loss came in a competitive game at Louisville, but the Cardinals have imploded down the stretch and are no longer ranked. That's likely hurting James Madison's standing with the committee.
If you're a James Madison fan, it's time to root for chaos in the American.
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What latest CFP rankings told us about Group of Five playoff race
