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Resetting the Group of Five playoff race after first CFP rankings release
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- Resetting the Group of Five playoff race after first CFP rankings release
It's only early November, but Memphis football is in the lead of the Group of Five's race to the College Football Playoff.
The Tigers (8-1, 4-1 American Conference ) were unranked in the first edition of the CFP rankings that was released on Nov. 4. No Group of Five team was ranked, and the committee slotted the Tigers ahead of the rest of the Group of Five and put them at No. 12 in the bracket.
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The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the 12-team field, so that essentially means there's at least one spot for a champion from the Group of Five (American, MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA and Mountain West). Washington State and Oregon State are the only current members of the Pac-12 and are not eligible for a conference champion spot in the playoff this season.
The American appears to have the best shot at sending a team to the playoff. Memphis, Tulane, ECU, North Texas, Navy and USF all have one conference loss and are still alive in the conference title race. And teams from other G5 conferences still have paths to the playoff, too.
Here's a look at where the Group of Five playoff race stands on Nov. 4.
American Conference champion likely going to the CFP
The American had the most success of any Group of Five conference in non-conference play, and that's helping everyone out as they ready for the final few games of the season. Memphis' path is crystal clear: Win out, and the Tigers are in the playoff. Though the Tigers have a bad loss to UAB, they would have five quality wins if they get there: USF, the three remaining regular season games and the conference title game.
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Ditto for Navy, but the Midshipmen are headed to South Bend to play Notre Dame next. Tulane, USF and North Texas would all likely be in if they win out.
ECU lost twice in non-conference play (NC State and BYU) and would be trying to get in as a three-loss conference champion.
That could open the door for...
The Sun Belt has one hope: James Madison
James Madison (7-1, 5-0) looks like the only team in the Sun Belt with a legitimate playoff shot. The Dukes had fellow playoff contender Louisville on the ropes on Sept. 5, but Bob Chesney's dual-quarterback experiment didn't work out in the second half and James Madison lost.
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If that game had gone differently, the Dukes would probably be ranked. They've been mostly winning handily since, even if their strength of schedule isn't as high as the American teams because of who's in their conference.
James Madison's path is to win out and root for chaos in the American. If there's a two- or three-loss American champion, the Dukes might have a case.
San Diego State is still alive ... sort of
San Diego State is the only Mountain West team still alive in the playoff race.
The Aztecs (7-1, 4-0) lost to 4-5 Washington State, but they also beat Cal 34-0 in one of the strangest results this season. San Diego State would have to win out and claim the Mountain West title, and even that might not be enough.
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Conference USA, MAC will have to wait another year
Everyone in the MAC has at least three losses.
In CUSA, Kennesaw State is in the midst of an incredible turnaround under Jerry Mack and is 6-2. But it's hard to see the Owls entering the playoff conversation.
Is there a chance two Group of Five teams make CFP?
The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff. Theoretically, that doesn't necessarily mean every power conference champion will make it. Still, it's very unlikely that multiple Group of Five teams will make the playoff field.
Virginia was ranked No. 14, but the Cavaliers made the field as the top-ranked ACC team. For two Group of Five teams to make the playoff, they'd each have to be above the lowest-ranked power conference champion. The fact that no Group of Five team was ranked and Virginia was at No. 14 doesn't bode well for that extremely slight possibility.
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Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Resetting the Group of Five playoff race after CFP rankings release
