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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s on the Cusp?
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- College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s on the Cusp?
The second edition of the College Football Playoff selection committee's top 25 rankings didn't feature many changes from the first version. Nine of the top 10 teams from last week remained in the top 10 on Tuesday night. Additionally, the top-five order remained the same as the post-Week 10 version. Despite few changes at the top, Tuesday night's release provided valuable insight into at-large teams on the bubble.
With four weeks to go in the 2025 season, several scenarios are still in play. The ACC and Big 12 are presently trending to be one-bid leagues. The Big Ten and SEC are expected to dominate the bulk of at-large selections, but plenty of mystery surrounds which teams will be in the field.
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Notre Dame (No. 9) moved up one spot from last week and remains in great shape to make the playoff if it wins out.
What do the second set of rankings for '25 tell us about what could happen on the bubble this season? Athlon Sports examines the second release and breaks down which teams are in great shape, which teams have work to do, and which teams are squarely on the bubble:
College Football Playoff Bubble Watch
ACC
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck throws the ball against the SMU Mustangs in Dallas on Nov. 1, 2025.Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
In:Miami (No. 15)
On the Bubble:Georgia Tech (No. 16), Virginia (No. 19), Louisville (No. 20), Pitt (No. 22), Duke (Not Ranked), SMU (Not Ranked)
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The selection committee's skepticism of the ACC was apparent in last week's rankings with Virginia checking in as the highest-ranked team at No. 14. And that skepticism played out in Week 11, as the Cavaliers fell to Wake Forest, and Louisville dropped an overtime game to California.
Virginia and Louisville both fell five spots in this week's rankings, with Miami (No. 15) and Georgia Tech (No. 16) moving up as the top ACC teams. However, both have work to do to reach the conference title game. The Hurricanes and Yellow Jackets both play Pitt (No. 22), and the tiebreakers aren't in favor of coach Mario Cristobal's team right now with Louisville and SMU both owning a head-to-head win. If — and it's a big if considering how Miami has played recently — the Hurricanes win out, they may have a better chance to get an at-large playoff spot than play in the ACC Championship Game.
With Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami remaining on Pitt's schedule, the Panthers arguably the team that will shape the playoff the most out of the ACC over the next couple of weeks. Even though Duke is 5-4, if coach Manny Diaz's team wins out (Virginia, at North Carolina, and Wake Forest), the Blue Devils will play for the ACC championship and have an opportunity to play spoiler on the rest of the conference.
Entering Week 12, the ACC still looks like a one-bid conference. However, there are a wide range of outcomes still in play with seven teams still in the mix.
● OVERRATED TEAMS: Which teams did the committee miss on in the second rankings?
Big 12
Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton looks to pass against the BYU Cougars in Lubbock, Texas, on Nov. 8, 2025.© Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
In:Texas Tech (No. 6)
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On the Bubble:BYU (No. 12), Utah (No. 13), Cincinnati (No. 25)
After handling BYU 29-7 in Lubbock on Saturday, Texas Tech is entrenched as the favorite to win the Big 12. The Red Raiders already have a victory over Utah (No. 13) and won't play Cincinnati in the regular season. Coach Joey McGuire's team will be a heavy favorite in its final two games (UCF and at West Virginia) and may get a rematch against BYU or Utah — two teams it handled by a combined score of 63-17 this season — in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Big 12's hopes of getting two teams into the playoff took a hit with BYU's lackluster showing in Lubbock. However, if the Cougars navigate a schedule that includes a road trip to Cincinnati in two weeks, coach Kalani Sitake's team can get another shot at Texas Tech and win its way into the playoff field. Utah's remaining schedule (at Baylor, Kansas State, at Kansas) is favorable for a run at 10-2 and an at-large spot. However, the Utes may need two more losses by BYU to jump ahead because of their 24-21 loss to the Cougars earlier this season.
After checking in at No. 25 in this week's ranking, Cincinnati's best hope for a playoff trip is to win the Big 12 and claim one of the five highest-rated spots among conference champions. The Bearcats get BYU in Cincinnati on Nov. 22.
Big Ten
Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood hands off the ball against the USC Trojans in Los Angeles on Oct. 11, 2025.
In:Ohio State (No. 1), Indiana (No. 2), Oregon (No. 8)
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On the Bubble:USC (No. 17), Michigan (No. 18)
Anything can happen on a Saturday slate in the world of college football, and a few upsets are likely in the final four weeks of the season. However, Ohio State (No. 1) and Indiana (No. 2) are virtual locks for the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes face UCLA and Rutgers before closing at archrival Michigan. The Hoosiers face Wisconsin and Purdue (a combined 5-14) to close out their regular season.
Oregon's win over Iowa moved coach Dan Lanning's team closer to the 12-team field. However, the Ducks have a tricky road ahead, starting on Friday night with a visit from Minnesota. Oregon closes with a home date against USC and a road trip to Washington. USC-Oregon on Nov. 22 looms large for the playoff hopes of both teams. If the Ducks survive that one, a Huskies' team led by dynamic sophomore quarterback Demond Williams will be a tough out on rivalry weekend.
Michigan has a clear path to a spot in the playoff. The Wolverines get Northwestern in Wrigley Field this Saturday, followed by a trip to Maryland in Week 13. If coach Sherrone Moore's team goes 2-0 as expected, then the annual showdown against Ohio State will be a chance for Michigan to win and claim a spot in the 12-team field.
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● BOWL PROJECTIONS: Predicting the matchups for every bowl and playoff game
SEC
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer throws against the Auburn Tigers in Norman, Oklahoma, on Sept. 20, 2025.Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
In:Texas A&M (No. 3), Alabama (No. 4), Georgia (No. 5), Ole Miss (No. 7)
On the Bubble:Texas (No. 10), Oklahoma (No. 11), Vanderbilt (No. 14)
The top four playoff contenders in the SEC — Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss — all won on Saturday and are solidly in the playoff field entering Week 12. The Aggies are in the best shape of the bunch with favorable upcoming home games against South Carolina and Samford, giving coach Mike Elko's team a path to 11-0 prior to the showdown at Texas.
Week 12 looms large for playoff positioning in the SEC. Oklahoma brings its standout defense to Tuscaloosa to battle Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson
and a prolific passing attack. A close loss or win by the Sooners could help coach Brent Venables' team make a case (pending scenarios in other leagues) for an at-large spot at 9-3. That's the scenario also playing out in Athens on Saturday night. Georgia (8-1) is in great shape to make the playoff. But Texas desperately needs a win against the Bulldogs or on Nov. 28 versus Texas A&M to make a case for an at-large spot.
At 9-1, Ole Miss is closing in on the program's first playoff appearance. The Rebels host Florida this Saturday, followed by an off date before a road trip to Starkville to play rival Mississippi State for the Egg Bowl. A split of those games should be enough for coach Lane Kiffin's team to make the field.
Vanderbilt (No. 14) is off this Saturday and ends the season with Kentucky and a road trip to Tennessee.
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Independents
Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr looks to pass against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Stadium on Oct. 11, 2025.
In:Notre Dame (No. 9)
The Fighting Irish continued their march to the College Football Playoff by winning their seventh game in a row, crushing Navy 49-10 on Saturday night. This week's matchup at Pitt is arguably the toughest remaining game on Notre Dame's schedule, with Syracuse (Nov. 22) and Stanford (Nov. 29) on tap.
With two losses, coach Marcus Freeman's team doesn't have any margin for error. However, if Notre Dame wins its final three games, the Irish will be in the College Football Playoff.
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Related: 2 Most Overrated Teams in Latest College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings
Related: College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 11
Related: 12 Pivotal Games That Will Shape the College Football Playoff Field
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Nov 12, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
