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What does first loss do to Texas Tech football's CFP, Big 12 Championship game chances?
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- What does first loss do to Texas Tech football's CFP, Big 12 Championship game chances?
As many in the national media, and plenty among local outlets, thought the Texas Tech football team was a juggernaut, losing a game (or two) was always on the table.
That finally came to fruition in Tempe, Texas Tech was unable to close the door after mounting a furious comeback in the fourth quarter. Arizona State got the 26-22 win and stormed the field in celebration, knowing the importance of the game for both sides.
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HOW IT HAPPENED: Texas Tech football vs Arizona State highlights: Red Raiders' comeback falls short vs Sun Devils
A loss by the Sun Devils would've essentially knocked them out of the running for a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Meanwhile, those asking whether Texas Tech would be able to run the gauntlet unscathed will now ask whether the Red Raiders were all that good to begin with.
We're going to ignore those talking points for the time being. Instead, we need to do a reset on what Texas Tech has in front of it, what's still doable, and how the Red Raiders can still get to Arlington and beyond.
Can Texas Tech football still make the Big 12 Championship after losing to Arizona State ?
The long and short of it is -- yes. Everything the Red Raiders could've potentially achieved with a win over the Sun Devils is still there, even with a loss. At 6-1, Texas Tech still boasts one of the best records in the country, but its margin for error is gone.
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Saturday was essentially the buffer game, a loss Texas Tech could afford to take, especially after beating Utah in the conference opener.
Looking at the rest of Texas Tech's schedule, there are two games that should be circled. The first comes on Nov. 1 when the Red Raiders visit Kansas State . The Wildcats still aren't great (3-4 overall and 2-2 in league during their open date), but showed some life with a 41-28 win over TCU last week.
Then comes the big one a week later when BYU comes to Lubbock. The Cougars should also be in the thick of the Big 12 title race by game time and will have a say in the final outcome of the season, regardless.
The wild card in all of this is Cincinnati , which Texas Tech does not face this year. The Bearcats are 4-0 after downing Oklahoma State, but have tough matchups with Utah, BYU, and TCU, plus plucky opponents in Baylor and Arizona, left on the docket.
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Should Texas Tech win out, they could be on the outside looking in if Cincinnati and Arizona State (who now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tech) also win out. But the odds of that are slim.
As long as Texas Tech wins all its remaining games, it should be playing for the Big 12 title in December.
Oct 18, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Will Hammond (15) is upended by Arizona State Sun Devils safety Adrian Wilson (6) in the first half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Can Texas Tech football still make the College Football Playoff after loss to Arizona State?
Once again, the answer is yes, but it's also a bit more complicated.
Entering the week, Texas Tech probably could've gotten in with an 12-1 record and a loss in the Big 12 title game. Now the Red Raiders likely need to win the conference title regardless, though there's an argument for an at-large berth.
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Should Tech go, say, 11-2 with the second loss coming in the title game, the Red Raiders would have wins over Utah and BYU in their pocket. There's also the potential asterisk of Tech having to play Will Hammond in the loss to Arizona State. A four-point loss on the road with your backup quarterback and almost pulling it off? That shouldn't ding the Red Raiders too much with the CFP selection committee, but they're also in the Big 12, so anything's possible there.
Entering the week, most CFP projections had Texas Tech in position to be a Top 4 seed, which would mean a bye into the quarterfinals.
Let's say Texas Tech runs the table, goes 12-1 with a Big 12 title win. The one loss likely knocks them out of the Top 4 seeds, but it would still give the Red Raiders a solid argument to host a first-round game at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Any losses beyond this, coupled with the Big 12 title, would move them down another rung, putting them on the road on somebody else's home turf to begin the CFP.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Can Texas Tech football still make CFP, Big 12 title game after ASU loss?
