Story by
What is Fueling This Minnesota Twins Hot Streak?
- Story by
- What is Fueling This Minnesota Twins Hot Streak?
Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis-Imagn Images
In case you've missed it — and the attendance numbers at Target Field suggest you probably have — the Minnesota Twins are on quite the heater, of late. Since last Saturday, the Twins have won eight-straight games, including a perfect 6-0 homestand last week against the Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants .
The win streak has pushed Minnesota above .500 (21-20) for the first time all season. They've now won 14 of their last 19 games , as they try to gain ground in the American League Central Division standings , led by the surprising 26-15 Detroit Tigers (5 GB), the only team in the division with a better run differential (+72) than the Twins (+19).
Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Rocco Baldelli & Co have an off-day Monday, before they begin a six-game road trip, beginning with the aforementioned Orioles, who the Twins just swept at home last week, and ending just over the eastern border of MN, in Milwaukee against the Brewers .
Advertisement
Before the 2025 season began, the Minnesota Twins were projected to win the AL Central. They fell well behind that expectation by dropping seven of their first eleven games. Back then, the lineup couldn't hit without Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee .
The Minnesota Twins are learning how to hit
Then, a month into the season (April 28), they lost their hottest hitter , Matt Wallner , who was having a career year slashing .263/.373/.474 (.847 OPS). But as the weather has started to turn, Lee and Lewis both returned from the IL, and the Twins lineup has started to come out of its shell under new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte.
For most of the first month of the 2025 MLB season, the Minnesota Twins were in the bottom six of the league in all three slashline statistics (batting average, on-base %, slugging %). Since April 21, they are top 10 in batting average and on-base %, and 13th league-wide in slugging.
| Time Period |
Average (MLB Rank) |
On-Base (MLB Rank) |
Slugging (MLB Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| *3/27 – 4/20 |
.211 (27th) |
.282 (27th) |
.338 (26th) |
| 4/21-5/11 |
.268 (7th) |
.334 (8th) |
.413 (13th) |
*Opening Day
Advertisement
Although Derek Falvey didn't do much this offseason, the roster he was ready to run back looked strong on paper. There is a fair argument to be made that trading some of their key veteran pieces ( Paddack , Vazquez) would have made sense, in order to free up some spending money to improve elsewhere.
But the widely-held belief, entering the 2025 season, was that the Twins had arguably the most talented roster in the division. It took time for Minnesota's bats to heat up and for the pitching staff to steady itself. But now that they've settled in, this team looks even more formidable than it did on paper a couple months ago.
Related: Young Minnesota Twins Prospect Climbs into Baseball America Top 100
The Twins' recent stretch of winning hasn't been led by any sort of major power surge. Only Byron Buxton (9) and Trevor Larnach (6) have more than four home runs . Instead, this team has been able to string together good at-bats. Small ball, we used to call it.
Advertisement
Offensively, Minnesota's surge has been led by Harrison Bader (.849 OPS) and Byron Buxton (.824 OPS). While bases loaded situations remain a problem ( 3-for-24 with 10 runs ), the Minnesota Twins are crushing the baseball with runners in scoring position, overall, slashing .277/.338/.406 (.744 OPS) on the season.
DaShawn called game! pic.twitter.com/gSbVZ9LTTk
— Ted (@tlschwerz) May 11, 2025
MN Twins rotation was a sleeper
If you remember back in March, I suggested that the Minnesota Twins starting rotation would be one of the best in baseball. Same could be said for the bullpen . But this hot streak has been led by Pablo Lopez , Joe Ryan and the rest of the Twins' starting rotation.
Pablo Lopez was mediocre during a rain delayed Opening Day start ( 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 ER ). Bailey Ober gave up eight runs a couple days later, while pitching through illness. Since then, however, they've been the heart and soul of an ever-improving Twins roster.
| Group |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Pitchers |
3.32 (5th) |
9.19 (7th) |
2.49 (1st) |
6.3 (3rd) |
| Starters |
3.36 (5th) |
8.84 (10th) |
2.25 (1st) |
4.0 (6th) |
| Relievers |
3.27 (8th) |
9.70 (6th) |
2.84 (1st) |
2.3 (1st) |
*(MLB ranking)
Advertisement
But to win, you have to score runs. While Minnesota's pitching has been great, the Twins are just 2-17 , when pitchers get three or less runs of support. On the contrary, they are 19-3, when the offense scores four or more runs.
Not only do Minnesota pitchers do a great job at limited runs, but they also strike out a ton of batters, while avoiding free passes. The Twins starters' K/BB ratio (318/113) would make 2014 Phil Hughes (MLB single-season K/BB record 11.63) blush.
What does 11 Pablo Lopez strikeouts look like? pic.twitter.com/dt3sumvjTk
— Ted (@tlschwerz) May 7, 2025
The back-end of the Twins starting rotation left reason to be concerned, entering the year. Instead, Simeon Woods Richardson has been solid yet again, posting a 4.01 ERA in seven appearances.
Chris Paddack got off to a rough start, but he has a 2.51 ERA in his past six outings. Paddack even flirted with a no-hitter last week, tossing 7 1/3 innings of 3-hit ball against the Giants over the weekend .
Advertisement
Can the Twins keep doing this?
Of course, the Minnesota Twins won't keep *this* up. They aren't going to go 121-0 the rest of the way. but there's a real path for them to sustain the success.
Minnesota isn't currently slugging at a high rate. In fact, their .371 slugging percentage is just 22nd in baseball. If they can get Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis going, that will change for the better. Both Matt Wallner and rookie Luke Keaschal should be back at some point as well.
Carlos Correa pic.twitter.com/1otNqCiJTs
— John Peabody (@PeabodyHitDev) April 20, 2025
Related: Young Minnesota Twins Prospect Climbs into Baseball America Top 100
The division itself also sets up well for the Twins. Cleveland 's -14 run differential has their Pythagorean record at just 18-21 , despite them currently owning a 23-16 mark. Both Kansas City and Detroit appear to be more legitimate threats, but the Twins will get them nine and ten more times, respectively.
