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MLB Insider Finally Admits He Was Wrong on One Prominent Twin
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- MLB Insider Finally Admits He Was Wrong on One Prominent Twin
Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Projecting the future of baseball players is an inexact science. Of course it's what front offices and many insiders are paid to do, but that doesn't mean they all get them right. The Minnesota Twins were spot on with this one, however.
Keith Law is among the most prominent prospect voices in the game. He's often quick to hold a haughty opinion and stick to it. He beat Royce Lewis ' name into the mud, and has often come for prospects in a…rather direct way.
Royce Lewis 🤝 Grand Slams
The @Twins slugger has his SIXTH career grand slam!
(MLB x @DairyQueen ) pic.twitter.com/B6F2BGBDBjRelated Headlines
— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2025
The goal for any organization is to develop their prospects and young players beyond what insider expectations are for them. Law does present a yearly look back at players he missed on, and Joe Ryan is now among them.
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Joe Ryan's greatness escaped Keith Law
The Minnesota Twins targeted Joe Ryan in the Nelson Cruz trade because they saw a near-MLB ready pitcher that they believed they could get more out of. It turns out they were right. Law never ranked him highly, and often overlooked him due to a fastball that sits in the low-90's. He has now seen the error of his ways.
With Ryan, it was a simple error that turned out to be very significant in evaluating his outlook. I'd heard so many times about pitchers with so-called "invisiballs," fastballs that were impossible for hitters to see or square up, that I'd become skeptical of anyone who supposedly threw one.
Ryan was one of those "invisiball" guys; the highest ranking I ever gave him as a prospect was when he made my just-missed list going into the 2020 season, where I referred to his "ordinary stuff," saying he did it with deception and a plus changeup but that his fastball was just average.
I know one scout in particular who told me I was underrating Ryan, because he believed the fastball was going to continue to play in the majors, but I was too jaded from all the invisiballs that didn't work out and was definitely too focused on Ryan's meh velocity rather than all of the other attributes that can make a fastball work.
Law's assessment of Ryan was lacking due to recency bias. Ryan's fastball works because of his extension, which Law notes, "he Twins boosted his extension from right around the league average of 6.4 feet to 6.8 feet this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile." While the velocity isn't top-tier, it plays because of how he throws the pitch.
There are lots of examples across baseball in which a process or certain mechanical intention doesn't work. The times it does though, are the spots in which a player stands out.
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Although Ryan has scuffled down the stretch, the Twins pitcher owns a 3.32 ERA (3.43 FIP) and was a fringe Cy Young candidate. He made his first All-Star team this season, and is trending upwards as Minnesota must rebuild their rotation.
Is there more for Joe Ryan in Minnesota?
What is next for Ryan remains a mystery. He doesn't hit free agency until after the 2027 season, but that didn't stop the Twins from dangling him in trade talks at the deadline. The Boston Red Sox came close to acquiring his services, and he has already openly admitted he'd be ok with a move.
Ryan has not been shy about speaking out against missteps by the organization. He is penciled in as a top-two starter behind Pablo Lopez for the 2026 team, but it's possible that the Pohlads tear down the Twins spending even further.
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Related: Joe Ryan Exposes Pohlad Budget Cut That Killed the Twins
If Ryan moves elsewhere, the goal of that organization will be to get him to the next level. Through his first 24 starts , Ryan owned a 2.72 ERA with Minnesota this season. A 3.26 FIP suggests some likely regression, but it has hit hard. In four starts since, he has allowed 16 runs on 23 hits and four homers in just 18 innings.
No matter how pronounced the cold streak is, Ryan remains a dominant pitcher and a true asset. Law missed on that when Minnesota didn't. Now it's on the Twins to not miss on capitalizing his value with the franchise rather than parting him out and starting over.
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