The 2026 NFL Draft is set to kick off on Thursday night. What chaos should everyone expect when the first round begins?
The 2026 NFL Draft is just three days away. We are soon going to learn just how right or wrong each mock draft was, as well as what rumors and speculation were true or dishonest. It promises to be a chaotic three days beginning on Thursday night.
With help from several of my A to Z Sports colleagues, including Kyle Crabbs , Charles Goldman , Evan Winter , and Easton Freeze , we decided to put together some final predictions for what the first round chaos will bring. Each of us contributed three predictions, and some of them were extremely bold. It won't be long to figure out just how bold they truly are.
Those predictions ranged from everything from potential trades, player-team fits, and some trends we could see on Thursday when the games officially begin. Even if you aren't the biggest fan of the 2026 class, the odds are high that the chaos will keep everyone very entertained.
1. No Miami Hurricanes in the Top-10 picks
It was once upon a time that we considered Miami a contender to get two players into the top-5 of this year’s class. The tumble of pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. feels like it is exponentially more severe by the week as we come down the home stretch, with a great deal of the insiders suggesting it has nothing at all to do with the recently reported 2024 fatal car accident that Bain was the driver for. It seems the top of this year’s draft is more squeamish about his unorthodox arm length than we’d assumed they’d be all fall.
But this take requires tackle Francis Mauigoa to tumble, too. The recent New York Giants trade back into the 10th overall pick here could be a complication to this take unless all the Jordyn Tyson smoke is legit. But I’ll say Cleveland likes Carnell Tate more than they like Mauigoa, and then I’ll say the Cardinals (after a potential trade down from No. 3) end up liking another tackle more.
2. Six wide receivers go in the top-25
Possible wide receiver teams inside the top-25 picks include: Jets (twice), Giants (twice), Browns (twice), Commanders , Saints, Chiefs , Dolphins, Rams, Panthers , Steelers , Eagles. It’s more than half the spots - and that’s before you get to trades, too. I’ll take cheese on this being a crazy wide receiver year, especially now that the Giants appear well-positioned to create two receivers in the top-10 between Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson.
Getting six in the top-25 means we’ll see Tate, Tyson, Makai Lemon , KC Concepcion , Omar Cooper Jr. , and Denzel Boston off the board by pick No. 26.
3. The Pittsburgh Steelers draft Ty Simpson
Death and taxes are no longer the only certainties in life. Aaron Rodgers and making a playing decision are now firmly on the list. And here we are, the week of the draft, and we still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers is playing football this upcoming season. Pittsburgh owns a pick at No. 21 - they’ve been awkwardly quiet on the quarterback front despite being in Rodgers purgatory. Instead, all of the smoke seems to be fully in on the Cardinals being the Ty Simpson team.
I think the Steelers draft Simpson with their pick ahead of the Cardinals’ second pick and free themselves from being fully at Rodgers’ mercy.
1. At least eight offensive linemen will be drafted in the first round
Every year, the national media devalues offensive line talent in their mock drafts and acts surprised when more of those players go in Round 1. The average number of offensive linemen selected in the first round over the last decade is six players. In 2025, there were eight offensive linemen selected in Round 1. In 2024, nine players were selected. Simply put, the NFL values offensive line talent more than the fans do. That's only going to increase as the costs to pay guards and centers in free agency rise.
I think seven college offensive tackles can realistically go in Round 1. Spencer Fano , Francis Mauigoa, Monroe Freeling , Caleb Lomu , Kadyn Proctor , Max Iheanachor, and Blake Miller. On the interior offensive line, Ola Ioane, Chase Bisonitis, Emmanuel Pregnon, Keylan Rutledge, and Conner Lew could all be in play for the first round as well. Overall, I'd set the over/under no lower than eight offensive linemen. This year, with few elite talents and little consensus, I'm probably taking the over.
2. Rumor has it that the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft will be trade-heavy. Here's why I am cautiously buying it.
There's to be some buzz among NFL reporters that the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft will be trade-heavy. I'm cautiously buying those rumors for a few reasons. The lack of elite talent at premium positions this year makes me feel like teams will hyperfocus on who they like. I think that a lot of NFL teams, specifically those at the top of the draft, want to trade down. Finding partners who want to move up will be the hard part.
The Arizona Cardinals put their name in the hat for Jeremiyah Love , which I feel like is the wild-card move that could spring a few trades. If they did take Love, where do the Titans pivot at No. 4? Could they trade down and let a team come up for Arvell Reese or David Bailey? Then I look at the Giants. There were some early rumors about Jeremiyah Love, but now that has shifted to Jordyn Tyson as his buzz has increased. It feels like bait to try to get a team to move up.
There's a ton of smoke surrounding the Dallas Cowboys as a team trying to move up, and I buy it. I'm just not sure how many other teams realistically have an interest in moving into the top 10. I could see as few as three trades and as many as seven happening in Round 1 alone.
3. Chiefs GM Brett Veach's overcorrection of the year will be on the defensive line
When things go majorly wrong for the Chiefs, Brett Veach has tended to overcorrect. Not necessarily in a bad way, but he makes a heavy investment to ensure it's no longer an issue. After their offensive line collapsed against the Bucs in Super Bowl LV, he went out and got Orlando Brown Jr. , Joe Thuney , Creed Humphrey , and Trey Smith . When they lost to the Bengals in the AFC title game in 2021, he completely rebuilt the secondary with Justin Reid , Trent McDuffie , Bryan Cook , and Jaylen Watson . After a 6-11 season in 2025, the worst record of the Andy Reid era, here comes another overcorrection.
This time, I think it's going to come on the defensive line. Khyiris Tonga was only the start. Chris Jones was loafing in 2025 because he was basically a one-man show. In the 2026 NFL Draft, I expect them to come away with at least three defensive linemen. Especially if they keep all nine of their current picks. I think they'll look for one pass-rush specialist type at edge rusher and target them early in the draft at either pick No. 9 or No. 29. They could even trade up. Then another versatile inside/outside piece to replace Charles Omenihu/Mike Danna later in the draft. Finally, they'll add at least one pure interior defensive lineman.
1. Cardinals stick at No. 3 and take Francis Mauigoa
It's my understanding that the Arizona Cardinals are more than willing to entertain trade targets for their No. 3 overall selection. With the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins , and Cleveland Browns all having multiple first round picks behind them, it's quite possible that they could make a trade happen. That's assuming that any of those teams deem it necessary to make a move happen.
If the Cardinals end up sticking at No. 3, there has been a lot of speculation about who they could take. We have heard names such as linebacker Arvell Reese (Ohio State) , pass rusher David Bailey (Texas Tech) , running back Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame), and offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (Miami), which are most likely to drive up interest. If the Cardinals do get stuck at No. 3, I believe it will be Mauigoa who is selected. There is a lot of love for the Hurricane right tackle in that building.
2. A team trades back into round one to take KC Concepcion
Throughout this process, I have found there to be a deep appreciation for Texas A&M wide receiver Kevin "KC" Concepcion around the league. Due to Concepcion being a bit banged up and not being able to run a forty-yard dash as a result, he has gone a bit under the radar from a media perspective. Despite that, I do believe the love for the dynamic pass catcher is very, very real. The NFL is a sucker for speed and ability after the catch, both of which the former NC State wide receiver brings to the table.
At the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine, there was a lot of talk that Concepcion could be the target of several teams trading back into the end of the first round. I still believe that could very much be a reality, especially if the wide receiver run starts early. If there is a pass catcher who demands that type of maneuver (outside of a massive fall for Arizona State star Jordyn Tyson), it'll be Concepcion.
3. Jacob Rodriguez goes in the first round
Ever since the combine, Rodriguez has been receiving some top-40 hype from the media side, and there's a reason for that. The 2026 draft class is a pretty interesting one, lacking elite talent up top, and almost no consensus on what's going to happen in the back end of the first round. Rodriguez is one of the players who could surprise some and go inside the top-32 selections. Just don't be surprised if it happens in a few days, carrying a ton of momentum after a strong overall process.
1. Alabama QB Ty Simpson does not go in Round One
As we know, the NFL is typically quarterback-drunk to the point where teams are willing to risk it all for their guy. Outside of certain instances like Malik Willis and Shedeur Sanders , guys who were widely considered to be first-round picks just to fall into Day 2 and Day 3, teams tend to talk themselves into anything regarding quarterbacks.
I don’t think Simpson moves the needle enough to warrant a Round 1 selection, especially when looking at the teams picking 22-33. Except for the Jets, every single one of those teams has a QB that either is a franchise QB, becoming one, or their respective team believes they’ll become one.
That’s why the Cardinals will stay put at 34 and take him there. I think the Jets, who pick at 33, view Geno Smith as a band-aid until next year’s draft, where there will be a far better selection of quarterbacks. The only team that threatens this is the Steelers at 21, but the belief is that Aaron Rodgers returns for one more season, taking them off the board.
2. San Diego St. CB Chris Johnson sneaks into Round One
Personally, I think Chris Johnson is the best cornerback in this class. He’s arguably the most complete cornerback when it comes to traits, resume, and career projection. He’s fluid, disciplined, versatile, and can play in both zone coverage and press-man schemes. Johnson also mirrors routes very well and has enough size and speed to match up with any receiver.
His biggest questions are overall length and inconsistency with disrupting catches at the high point. Running backs can take him for a sleigh ride at times, too. However, he has the grit and desire to work on whatever issues he has, and someone will definitely bet on the positives in the first round, albeit in the back end.
3. Ohio State will either match or surpass the total number of SEC players drafted in Round One
This is a BOLD prediction, but one worth putting up, in my opinion. Right now, the Buckeyes are likely to have five players go in Round 1: Caleb Downs , Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles , Carnell Tate, and Kayden McDonald .
For the SEC, it’s likely 6-7 players go in Round 1, creating a thin enough margin where this is totally plausible if some guys from other conferences sneak into Round 1. Names like Peter Woods, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, and Jacob Rodriguez are ones that can help make this happen.
Ohio State has become an NFL factory over recent years, and it’ll get the chance to flex its muscles over the once-dominant SEC in this year’s draft.
1. The first four players off the board are set
You're going to hear a lot of different scenarios for how the first round will play out this week. Some will be far-fetched, while others will sound highly plausible. I'm here to tell you that the "boring" answer is the most likely one. QB Fernando Mendoza, RB Jeremiyah Love, and EDGE's David Bailey and Arvell Reese will all be gone by pick 5.
There's no debate over where Mendoza is going. Either Reese or Bailey will be a Jet at 2. Whoever they don't pick will be the third or fourth pick, and Jeremiyah Love will take the final spot. The only players who could feasibly break up this four-pack are LB Sonny Styles or OT Francis Mauigoa. But the devalued nature of Styles' position and Mauigoa's medicals-which I know at least two teams see as serious-keep them going later in the top-10 in my opinion.
Sometimes the simplest explanations are the truth: the top QB, the top offensive player in the draft, and the top two pass rushers are who the league will take first.
2. The Cardinals won't pick 3rd
But the Cardinals won't be a part of that top-4 pick party! I'm taking on Ryan Robert's prediction of Mauigoa to Arizona at pick 3 directly. I'm calling you out pal!
In all seriousness, I think the overwhelming smoke about GM Monti Ossenfort's borderline desperation to trade down is real. It also makes all the sense in the world. This team needs additional picks, they need help in the trenches, Ossenfort is on the hot seat to produce results, and they want QB Ty Simpson later in the draft in a potential trade-up. They need to sell this pick, and with a top EDGE still on the board at 3, I think they will.
3. No 2027 1st or 2nd Round picks will exchange hands
On the topic of trades: while I have no reason to discredit the idea that this will be a trade-heavy draft weekend, I will put my foot down on top-62 picks in 2027. We always talk about the next class being the best class, and that's a cautionary tale we never seem to learn from. But the whole league is operating on this assumption, more or less: the ‘27 class is going to be loaded.
So while we may see plenty of trades, I think they will involve ‘26 picks, mid/late ‘27 picks, and veteran players. Each team will protect their top picks next year with their lives.
