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Cakewalk or brutal stretch? Making sense of Patriots’ schedule debate
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- Cakewalk or brutal stretch? Making sense of Patriots’ schedule debate
FOXBOROUGH, MA – As New England Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell walked to the locker room following his team's victory over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, his head coach, Mike Vrabel, gave him a chin tap – in "keep your head up" fashion – between the celebratory handshakes.
Campbell wasn't pleased with his performance despite the 28-16 victory , as the Texans' pass rush busted his side of the offensive line for five sacks, three by Will Anderson Jr. , who had Campbell's number all afternoon.
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The circumstance, and Vrabel's motivational tactic, is the result of the Patriots ' scheduling conundrum entering the Jan. 25 AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos . By some metrics and statistics, the path to the Super Bowl – which now includes facing a backup quarterback in the conference title tilt – has never been easier. The Patriots' players, and Campbell in that moment after the Texans game, beg to differ.
"We're just trying to play great football," linebacker Jack Gibbens told USA TODAY Sports. "We're chasing a goal. We're not that worried with what's going on on the outside."
The defenses of both the Los Angeles Chargers and Texans presented massive challenges for Campbell, quarterback Drake Maye and the entire offensive unit. Los Angeles' defense finished the regular season 10th in DVOA ( defense-adjusted value over average ), which measures a team's efficiency by comparing every play to a league-average baseline, adjusted for opponent strength, game situation (down, distance, score). Houston was second, and the Denver defense ranked fifth. Should the Pats to advance to Super Bowl 60, either the Seattle Seahawks (first) or Los Angeles Rams (fourth) would await. Facing four consecutive top-10 defenses – they all finished in the top-10 in least points allowed, too – would be no walk in the park.
"They'll be the best defense that we've played to date, because it's the next one," Vrabel said of Denver's defense. "That's just how this goes. … Each and every week, they get tougher."
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Patriots' schedule talk won't matter if they keep winning
There's also no denying the Pats set themselves up in this prime position by feasting on a weak schedule. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) data , the Patriots faced the easiest schedule when compared to average NFL teams. The 113 combined wins by opponents was the lowest in the NFL, as was the .391 strength of schedule.
Finishing 4-13, which led to the firing of Jerrod Mayo and another top-five pick (Campbell, taken fourth overall), led to a last-place schedule in which the Pats faced every team that also finished fourth in their division in 2024. The NFC division they played against was the South, which was won by the 8-9 Carolina Panthers (the Patriots went 4-0 against that division). The AFC North was no juggernaut, either. No resistance from the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins to New England 's 5-1 record in the AFC East also helped.
The 10-game improvement tied the 2008 Dolphins and 1999 Indianapolis Colts for the largest turnarounds year-over-year. Vrabel became the third coach in NFL history to have 14 wins in his first season coaching a team.
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"I think this is a pretty motivated group. … I'm confident that they'll remain excited and ready to go," Vrabel said.
The quarterback couldn't care less about anybody minimizing the moment his team faces.
"Shoot, I'm not worried about what everybody else thinks," Maye said. "You worry about people in this locker room, in this building. It's the biggest game because it's the next one. I think that's the best mentality for this team, and we've had that mentality all year long. I've been proud of how we've approached that."
But the argument about New England's path to the playoffs has been made throughout the discourse for more than a month, now. Invariably, the Patriots are aware of it.
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Vrabel sarcastically responded to a question about players potentially staying off their phones – an impossible reality, according to the coach.
"Yeah, I'll try that, see if that works," Vrabel said. "No, we just try to stay as consistent as possible. I think from the time that we started this thing up until now, we try to stay as consistent as possible, continue to coach the actions, not the results, focus on the things that we need to do to win, the environment, making sure that our operation is good, the defense is as prepared as possible for anything that could happen, and the special teams and their role in the game – that's about all you can do.
"I'll try (the) stay off your phone thing, see if that works."
NBC Sports Boston analyst and longtime Patriots insider Tom Curran remarked during a show recently that Patriots fans should be upset that their team isn't entering Championship Sunday undefeated. His reasoning isn't too far-fetched: a Week 1 loss at home to the lowly Las Vegas Raiders , a five-turnover nightmare against the Pittsburgh Steelers , along with a second-half collapse at the hands of the Buffalo Bills account for the trio of losses in 2025.
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Then again, had the Pats secured the No. 1 seed, they would have had a bye to the divisional round against the Bills and Josh Allen had everything else played out the same. Would they rather have the bye and the Bills, or the path they actually traveled?
Uncomfortable questions tend to have complicated answers.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Patriots' easy schedule doesn't diminish AFC championship game run
