Which NFL teams and players have been WAY better than expected - and which ones have completely failed to live up to expectations? On this episode of 4th & Football, Kyle Crabbs and Garret Greenlee break down the biggest overachievers and underachievers of the 2026 NFL season so far and try to determine which teams and players can actually sustain their current trajectory. FIRST DOWN starts with the biggest overachieving and underachieving NFL teams. The Cleveland Browns are the first team mentioned after an unexpected 5-2 start. The Browns are sitting in first place in the AFC North despite entering the season with extremely low expectations. The Minnesota Vikings are another obvious overachiever. Minnesota is 6-0 and the NFL's final undefeated team heading into the end of October, despite plenty of offseason questions surrounding the roster and quarterback situation. The New York Giants round out the top three. New York is 4-2-1 and sitting in first place in the NFC East, with J.J. McCarthy already showing flashes in his first stretch of meaningful action. On the other side, the Houston Texans are identified as the biggest underachiever. Garrett explains why he was extremely high on Houston's defense entering the season and why that unit has fallen dramatically short of expectations. The Los Angeles Chargers are also included after an offensive collapse that has left them near the bottom of the NFL in scoring. The Los Angeles Rams round out the three biggest underachieving teams, although the guys acknowledge that injuries have played a major role in their disappointing start. SECOND DOWN asks whether these teams will regress or continue on their current trajectories. The guys debate whether Cleveland can sustain its winning pace, whether Minnesota's undefeated start is legitimate, whether the Giants can actually win the NFC East, and whether Houston, Los Angeles and the Rams can recover. THIRD DOWN shifts to individual players. Kenneth Walker III is identified as one of the biggest overachievers after an outstanding start to the season, while Minnesota's Dallas Turner has made a major leap as a pass rusher. Boye Mafe is another standout overachiever after producing pressure at an extraordinary rate. On the underachieving side, Justin Herbert is the biggest name. The guys believe Herbert's current production is far below what his six-year track record suggests and expect significant positive regression. Jalen Waddle is another major disappointment. After entering the season with expectations of a potential 1,000-yard campaign, Waddle has struggled to consistently produce and has been held below 50 receiving yards in every game since his huge Week 2 performance. Ashton Gentry is also discussed as an underachieving player whose production has fallen well short of expectations. FOURTH DOWN determines which of these players can actually sustain their current trajectories. The guys debate whether Boye Mafe can maintain his current pressure rate, whether Kenneth Walker's production is sustainable, and whether Dallas Turner can continue his breakout. They also discuss why Justin Herbert should eventually return toward his career norms and why they aren't expecting Jalen Waddle to suddenly become the player they anticipated entering the season. Finally, Kyle and Garret make their Thursday Night Football prediction for the Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers. Who is the biggest NFL overachiever? Who is the biggest underachiever? And which of these players or teams is about to regress? Let us know in the comments. This is 4th & Football with Kyle Crabbs and Garret Greenlee.
