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March Madness bracket hot takes, from Sweet 16 upsets to Final Four predictions
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- March Madness bracket hot takes, from Sweet 16 upsets to Final Four predictions
So long, upsets, and goodnight Cinderella .
Goodnight, Hubert Davis ? Maybe in a day or two.
Goodnight, Mark Pope ? Wait 'til 2027 on that one.
Although blue-bloods North Carolina , Kentucky and UCLA are mired in misery, most of the big dogs march on in March. Cinderella's glass slipper shattered after the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Well, except for Iowa . The Hawkeyes retained a slipper .
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Sweet 16 predictions: Experts pick who will advance in March Madness bracket
March Madness winners, losers: Big Ten dominance entering Sweet 16
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Tavion Banks #6 of the Iowa Hawkeyes dunks the ball against Alex Condon #21 of the Florida Gators during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Alvaro Folgueiras #7 of the Iowa Hawkeyes attempts a three point basket against the Florida Gators with under five seconds left during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Alvaro Folgueiras #7 of the Iowa Hawkeyes attempts a three point basket against the Florida Gators with under five seconds left during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators late in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) dribbles the ball against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) shoots against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) holds his follow through on a shot against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) and Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) celebrate after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) high-fives Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cam Manyawu (3) against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) is seen against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Florida Gators guard Isaiah Brown (20) dunks the ball past Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators late in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) reacts after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Florida Gators guard Xaivian Lee (1) passes the ball around Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) in the final seconds as Florida Gators was unable to get a shot off in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) reacts after losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
Alex Condon #21 of the Florida Gators reacts after being defeated by the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
Thomas Haugh #10 of the Florida Gators reacts after being defeated by the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
1
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
1
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
2
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
3
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
4
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Tavion Banks #6 of the Iowa Hawkeyes dunks the ball against Alex Condon #21 of the Florida Gators during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
5
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
6
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Alvaro Folgueiras #7 of the Iowa Hawkeyes attempts a three point basket against the Florida Gators with under five seconds left during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
7
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
8
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Alvaro Folgueiras #7 of the Iowa Hawkeyes attempts a three point basket against the Florida Gators with under five seconds left during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
9
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators late in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
10
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) dribbles the ball against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
11
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) shoots against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
12
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) holds his follow through on a shot against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
13
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) and Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) celebrate after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
14
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
15
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) celebrates after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
16
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) high-fives Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cam Manyawu (3) against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
17
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) is seen against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
18
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Florida Gators guard Isaiah Brown (20) dunks the ball past Iowa Hawkeyes forward Cooper Koch (8) in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
19
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
20
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) makes a go-ahead three-point basket against the Florida Gators late in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
21
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) reacts after a play against the Florida Gators in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
22
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Florida Gators guard Xaivian Lee (1) passes the ball around Iowa Hawkeyes forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) in the final seconds as Florida Gators was unable to get a shot off in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
23
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) reacts after losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
(Matt Pendleton, Imagn Images)
24
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Alex Condon #21 of the Florida Gators reacts after being defeated by the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
25
/25
Iowa shocks Florida with statement NCAA tournament upset
Thomas Haugh #10 of the Florida Gators reacts after being defeated by the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.
(Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
What to make of the mostly chalky first two rounds ?
Well, the easy and perhaps most relevant explanation is NIL and transfer free agency mostly benefited Power conference brands, at the expense of mid-majors. Plus, this is a particularly good freshman class, and Power programs tend to gobble up the five-star prospects. With so many five-stars (see Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff) playing up to their billing, that's a boon for the high majors, because blue-chippers don't sign with mid-majors.
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Also, this year's bubble was particularly weak. The wheat separated from the chaff. A soft bubble is good for frontrunners.
Quiet tournament for upsets, but all eyes on Final Four
Does a relative lack of major upsets amount to a boring tournament? That depends on your perspective. If your interest in March Madness mostly hinges on upsets and bracket-busting stunners, then this tournament isn't for you.
On the other hand, the favorites also ruled last year's tournament, but that created an epic Final Four featuring three great games, on the heels of some Sweet 16 and Elite Eight thrillers.
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In other words: Stay tuned. The tournament should get better as it goes.
If you're hungry for upsets, though, here are three possibilities for the Sweet 16:
Four Sweet 16 games with upset potential
No. 4 Arkansas over No. 1 Arizona
Arizona is the most complete team in the bracket, with five starters who each average in double digits, plus two bench players who started on last year's team that reached the Sweet 16.
So, why the upset potential? Well, because Arkansas is playing as well as anyone the past few weeks. John Calipari's team hasn't lost this month, and Acuff is becoming one of the top individual stories of the tournament. Asked about Acuff's 36-point barrage in the second-round win over High Point, Calipari said, "What you saw is what he be's."
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I'm not sure if that's grammatically correct, but his point resonates, nonetheless.
No. 6 Tennessee over No. 2 Iowa State
Rick Barnes' two best NCAA Tournament finishes at Tennessee came the past two seasons. Now, he's trying for a third consecutive Elite Eight. If Tennessee plays defense like it did in wins against Miami ( Ohio ) and Virginia , it'll position itself to pull off the mild upset.
Never mind the seeds, because KenPom metrics would tell you Tennessee is closer to a 3-seed or a 4-seed. Iowa State has been under-manned without star scorer Joshua Jefferson . He's dealing with an ankle injury. Of course, if Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic play like they did against Kentucky , Iowa State might be just fine.
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Rubén Prey #17 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts as Flory Bidunga #40 and Kohl Rosario #7 of the Kansas Jayhawks look on during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket against Tre White #3 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket defended by Tre White #3 and Melvin Council Jr. #14 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Darryn Peterson #22 of the Kansas Jayhawks defends against Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket defended by Elmarko Jackson #13 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Bryce Hopkins #23 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Bryson Tiller #15 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm looks on during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Paul Mbiya #34 of the Kansas Jayhawks blocks a shot by Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Melvin Council Jr. #14 of the Kansas Jayhawks shoots the ball against Dillon Mitchell #1 of the St. John's Red Storm during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm defends against Paul Mbiya #34 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Bryce Hopkins #23 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Rubén Prey #17 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks reacts as Bryce Hopkins #23 and Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrate a 67-65 victory after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm looks on after a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) celebrates after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)
1
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
1
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
2
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Rubén Prey #17 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts as Flory Bidunga #40 and Kohl Rosario #7 of the Kansas Jayhawks look on during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
3
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
4
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket against Tre White #3 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
5
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
6
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket defended by Tre White #3 and Melvin Council Jr. #14 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
7
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Darryn Peterson #22 of the Kansas Jayhawks defends against Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
8
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm drives to the basket defended by Elmarko Jackson #13 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
9
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Bryce Hopkins #23 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
10
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Bryson Tiller #15 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
11
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm looks on during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
12
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Paul Mbiya #34 of the Kansas Jayhawks blocks a shot by Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
13
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Melvin Council Jr. #14 of the Kansas Jayhawks shoots the ball against Dillon Mitchell #1 of the St. John's Red Storm during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
14
/24
St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Ian Jackson #11 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm defends against Paul Mbiya #34 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Bryce Hopkins #23 of the St. John's Red Storm reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Rubén Prey #17 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm shoots the ball against Elmarko Jackson #13 and Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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St. John’s wins on dramatic buzzer‑beater to reach Sweet 16
Flory Bidunga #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks reacts as Bryce Hopkins #23 and Zuby Ejiofor #24 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrate a 67-65 victory after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks after the game in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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Dylan Darling #0 of the St. John's Red Storm looks on after a 67-65 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) celebrates after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)
No. 5 St. John's over No. 1 Duke
Kentucky might be interested in what Rick Pitino has achieved these past two seasons at St. John's. His Red Storm have won 21 of their past 22 games.
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Duke hasn't looked particularly stout in this tournament, and the ACC appears to be a fraud.
Pitino has St. John's into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999, after winning 31 games last season. The more Pitino wins, the more Big Blue Nation will wish he'd never left "Camelot."
Final Four picks: Be skeptical of Duke
This much we know: We won't see a repeat of all four 1-seeds in the Final Four, not after Florida went down to Iowa. Duke might be next.
If basing an evaluation on the tournament's first two rounds, you might think Michigan or Arizona or Houston was the tournament's No. 1 overall seed. Duke didn't perform like the No. 1 overall seed in either of its wins against Siena or TCU, and the sharpest teeth of the East Region still awaits.
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An early scare or two is not a doomsday scenario. Last year, Florida got pushed to the brink by UConn in the second round before rallying. The Gators also trailed Texas Tech by nine points with less than three minutes remaining in the Elite Eight, but Walter Clayton Jr. refused to let Florida fall.
Point being, Duke's scare against Siena could become nothing more than a minor footnote for the Blue Devils, and yet I'd trust Duke more if they had a clutch veteran guard like Florida had in Clayton in 2025. I'd also trust Duke more if it didn't have to face a scorching-hot St. John's team, led by a veteran coach who's a shark in March.
On Selection Sunday, I picked a Final Four of Michigan State, Arizona, Michigan and Houston. All four teams looked good through two rounds. No reason to change those picks.
Put it in Sharpie: Michigan State. Arizona. Michigan. Houston.
Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.
Kansas Jayhawks cheerleaders perform before a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the St. John's Red Storm at Viejas Arena on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, Calif.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)
Nebraska's Berke Buyuktuncel celebrates with fans following a second-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Nebraska Cornhuskers and Vanderbilt Commodores at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on March 21, 2026.
Arkansas Razorbacks cheerleaders in the second half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
VCU Rams fans react after a 3-pointer by Terrence Hill Jr. #6 of the VCU Rams in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)
Howard Bison cheerleaders perform during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Michigan Wolverines at Keybank Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)
BYU Cougars cheerleader in the second half against the Texas Longhorns during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
Former North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams is seen in the crowd against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Mar 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
Texas A&M Aggies cheerleaders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)
Texas Longhorns band in the first half against the BYU Cougars during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
St. John's Red Storm mascot Johnny Thunder mixes with players prior to taking the court during practice day ahead of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 19, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
A Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleader practices before the game during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
The High Point Panthers fans cheer during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)
The High Point Panthers cheerleaders react during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images)
The North Dakota State Bison mascot and cheerleaders pose for a photo before the game against the Michigan State Spartans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY
(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)
Nebraska Cornhuskers fans cheer after defeating the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(Alonzo Adams, Imagn Images)
The Wisconsin Badgers mascot performs during a time out during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
A view of Buddy the Street Dog as Queens University of Charlotte Royals guard Yoav Berman talks to the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center in St. Louis on March 19, 2026.
(Jeff Le, Imagn Images)
The High Point Panthers band performs prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
High Point Panthers fans cheer prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
The Wisconsin Badgers cheerleaders preform during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
The South Florida Bulls mascot performs during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)
The Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleaders perform in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images)
The Troy Trojans mascot dances on the floor during the second half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, William Purnell-Imagn Images)
The UCF Knights band performs during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 19, 2026 in Philadelphia.
(Bill Streicher, Imagn Images)
Nebraska Cornhuskers cheerleaders perform during the second half against the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)
A Wisconsin Badgers cheerleader performs during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
The Ohio State Buckeyes cheerleaders perform in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
Akron Zips fans in the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
Texas Tech Red Raiders cheerleaders in the first half against the Akron Zips during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)
Santa Clara Broncos fans react to game play against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 20, 2026 in St. Louis, MO.
(Jeff Le, Jeff Le-Imagn Images)
Akron Zips cheerleaders and mascot in the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
Wright State Raiders fans celebrate after a Wright State Raiders guard TJ Burch (22) scores during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, PA.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
Hofstra Pride cheerleaders in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
Garth Noble of the Louisville pep band is amped at the 2026 NCAA Women's March Madness basketball tournament at the KFC Yum Center In Louisville, Kentucky. March 21, 2026.
(Matt Stone/Courier Journal)
Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players after 95-72 win over Saint Louis at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026.
(Junfu Han, USA TODAY NETWORK)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish band and spirit squad cheer during the first round of the NCAA women's basketball tournament against the Fairfield Stags at Ohio State's Schottenstein Center in Columbus on March 21, 2026.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)
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Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.
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Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.
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Kansas Jayhawks cheerleaders perform before a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the St. John's Red Storm at Viejas Arena on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, Calif.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)
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Nebraska's Berke Buyuktuncel celebrates with fans following a second-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Nebraska Cornhuskers and Vanderbilt Commodores at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on March 21, 2026.
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Arkansas Razorbacks cheerleaders in the second half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
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VCU Rams fans react after a 3-pointer by Terrence Hill Jr. #6 of the VCU Rams in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)
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Howard Bison cheerleaders perform during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Michigan Wolverines at Keybank Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)
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BYU Cougars cheerleader in the second half against the Texas Longhorns during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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Former North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams is seen in the crowd against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Mar 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
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Texas A&M Aggies cheerleaders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)
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Texas Longhorns band in the first half against the BYU Cougars during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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St. John's Red Storm mascot Johnny Thunder mixes with players prior to taking the court during practice day ahead of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 19, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)
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A Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleader practices before the game during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
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The High Point Panthers fans cheer during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)
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The High Point Panthers cheerleaders react during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images)
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The North Dakota State Bison mascot and cheerleaders pose for a photo before the game against the Michigan State Spartans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY
(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)
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Nebraska Cornhuskers fans cheer after defeating the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(Alonzo Adams, Imagn Images)
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The Wisconsin Badgers mascot performs during a time out during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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A view of Buddy the Street Dog as Queens University of Charlotte Royals guard Yoav Berman talks to the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center in St. Louis on March 19, 2026.
(Jeff Le, Imagn Images)
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The High Point Panthers band performs prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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High Point Panthers fans cheer prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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The Wisconsin Badgers cheerleaders preform during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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The South Florida Bulls mascot performs during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)
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The Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleaders perform in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images)
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The Troy Trojans mascot dances on the floor during the second half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, William Purnell-Imagn Images)
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The UCF Knights band performs during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 19, 2026 in Philadelphia.
(Bill Streicher, Imagn Images)
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Nebraska Cornhuskers cheerleaders perform during the second half against the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)
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A Wisconsin Badgers cheerleader performs during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)
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The Ohio State Buckeyes cheerleaders perform in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
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Akron Zips fans in the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
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Texas Tech Red Raiders cheerleaders in the first half against the Akron Zips during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)
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Santa Clara Broncos fans react to game play against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 20, 2026 in St. Louis, MO.
(Jeff Le, Jeff Le-Imagn Images)
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Akron Zips cheerleaders and mascot in the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
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Wright State Raiders fans celebrate after a Wright State Raiders guard TJ Burch (22) scores during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, PA.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
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Hofstra Pride cheerleaders in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)
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Garth Noble of the Louisville pep band is amped at the 2026 NCAA Women's March Madness basketball tournament at the KFC Yum Center In Louisville, Kentucky. March 21, 2026.
(Matt Stone/Courier Journal)
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Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players after 95-72 win over Saint Louis at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026.
(Junfu Han, USA TODAY NETWORK)
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The Notre Dame Fighting Irish band and spirit squad cheer during the first round of the NCAA women's basketball tournament against the Fairfield Stags at Ohio State's Schottenstein Center in Columbus on March 21, 2026.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)
National championship: Arizona beats Houston
I highlighted Arkansas-Arizona as a potential Sweet 16 upset, but I'm picking the Wildcats to survive and overcome their history of March Madness fizzles, which plagued this program for the past quarter-century.
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History aside, there's nothing to dislike about Arizona. I subscribe to the cliche old guards win in March, and Jaden Bradley is an excellent engine for Arizona at point guard. The Wildcats balance Bradley's experience with an excellent counterpart in freshman guard Brayden Burries . Add in a frontcourt that's unmatched, and you see why Arizona is 34-2, despite playing a tough schedule.
As for Houston, I'm impressed by the guts of point guard Kingston Flemings , the big-game experience of Emanuel Sharp , Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler , and the savvy of coach Kelvin Sampson. Nobody in the South Region plays better defense than Houston. The Cougars should benefit from playing the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in Houston, too.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament bracket predictions: Sweet 16 upsets, new Final Four picks
