NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 17: Merry Christmas to all!

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NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 17: Merry Christmas to all!

Tim Crean, ClutchPoints

Wed, Dec 24, 2025 ·

11 min read

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NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 17: Merry Christmas to all! appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

Merry Christmas, and are you ready for some football? We kickoff the holiday week with three not-so-festive games on Christmas Day— Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders , Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings , and Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chief s—where four of the six teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Still, we get more pro football to wager on, so let's dive into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Last weekend, we got a handful of amazing games between playoff contenders, and several, like the Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams matchup on Thursday , the Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers on Sunday , and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions on Sunday , did not disappoint.

This week… we have Christmas!

Enjoy your family. Reconnect with old friends. Maybe check in on the NBA. Did you know the season started already? The good news is that if you are looking for meaningful games between good teams, you don't really have to check in until the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills face off at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

All that said, when there is NFL football on, it means we can bet on games, so the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column has you covered for all your holiday wagering needs.

The Christmas week schedule is quite spread out, with three Thursday games on Christmas Day (1:00 pm, 4:30 pm, 8:15 pm ET). After that, we go with two Saturday showdowns kicking at 4:30 pm and 8:00 pm ET, seven 1:00 p.m. ET games, just two late window tilts, a Sunday night affair, and a Monday nighter.

We finally got back on track in Week 16, crushing it both straight up (13-3) and against the spread (10-5-1). This killer week keeps us cruising at 145-95 when just picking winners and helps us improve to 109-126-5 ATS on the season.

So, with that, let's get right into the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds .

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been playing hard of late, and it's easy to see that if they had a healthy Jayden Daniels this season, they would be right back in the playoff picture. However, they don't have a healthy Daniels or a healthy Mariota right now , so this game is tenuous at best.

While the Commanders keep overperforming, the Cowboys are doing the opposite lately, losing three straight. This seems to add up to a Commanders cover or even win, but the injury pendulum may have swung too far in Washington, and it's time for Dallas to pull out one more big game on national TV to remind everyone what they could have or should have been.

Pick:Cowboys 28-14

Detroit Lions (-6) at Minnesota Vikings

In two of the three Christmas Day division games, we are going to go against our own general tenets here at the Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column. We believe that division games are generally closer than expected, but these first two are exceptions.

The issue here is that the Lions are fighting for their life, and the Vikings are starting Max Brosmer. That's enough of a disparity to think that Detroit is going to cruise, even on the road and with a banged-up offensive line.

Pick:Lions 24-17

Denver Broncos (-13.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

This is a game between a potential No. 1 overall seed in the AFC and a team with its third-string quarterback. It's easy to see why this game comes with a two-touchdown spread. However, there are a few big signs here that point to a Broncos cover.

This is a division game, the Broncos generally don't blow teams out, and Andy Reid should be able to scheme up enough to score a time or two, while the Chiefs' defense will at least contain Bo Nix. It won't be the prettiest game on Christmas, but it should be a relatively close one.

Pick:Broncos 20-10

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

While much will be made about CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert here, this game is all about the defenses. We all know how good the Texans' unit is, but the Chargers D is an underrated bunch this season that hits hard and takes names. In LA's four-game win streak, they haven't allowed more than 19 points.

With Herbert and the run game providing more than Stroud and his crew, we'll take the sneaky-good Chargers defense to be the difference here and get its team a win.

Pick:Chargers 21-17

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

The Packers are a good team, but if you've been reading the Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column for a while now, you know that we just can't get on board with Joran Love to win it all in a big spot. And while this is a big game, it's not crucial for the Pack. Plus, it may be Malik Willis if Jordan Love doesn't clear concussion protocol .

On the flip side, the Ravens always seem to find a way to lose big games, and that was on full display last week. Technically, the Ravens are still alive for a postseason berth , but they only have a 9% chance right now. That goes up to 22% if they win and >1% if they lose, which we suspect they will.

Pick:Packers 27-23

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers

Seattle is coming off a mini bye after playing last Thursday in an overtime classic against the Rams. That means they will be rested, but flying across the country to play a 10:00 am PT game is not ideal.

The Panthers don't really need this game. Their whole season comes down to next week against the Buccaneers for the division, unless they win and the Bucs lose. Still, Carolina is tough at home, and this could be closer than a touchdown game.

Pick:Seattle 24-23

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

With Joe Burrow, the Bengals are the much better team here, and the Cardinals seem like a "1-2-3, Cancun!" team at this point. There's not a lot of high-level analysis to do here other than to say that the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the Bengals big and keep it moving.

Pick:Bengals 34-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

Todd Bowles may be coaching his final games with the Buccaneers, as his former lieutenants, Dave Canales and Liam Cohen, are having a ton of success right now, and Tampa Bay is blowing games that they should win.

This seems like an easy win for the Buccaneers, but that's when they seem to struggle the most. And with the Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins still playing hard and in the nice, warm South Florida weather, this game is primed for an upset.

Pick:Dolphins 21-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars are rolling right now, and a trip to Indianapolis isn't going to slow that down. With two weeks of 44-year-old Philip Rivers now on tape, defenses know what he is and what he can (and can't) do, and that's a problem for the Colts.

Indy has held on admirably as their season completely unraveled, but other than being home, why is there any belief they can improve on the 36-19 drubbing Jacksonville gave their rivals just three weeks prior?

Pick:Jaguars 37-18

New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets

The Patriots are a wagon right now after beating a good team for the first time since they took down the Bills in Week 5. Drake Maye is back in the MVP conversation, and everything seems to be going right for the Pats, which makes everyone outside of New England hate this team and its fans even more.

Unfortunately for everyone outside the upper Northeast, the Jets are not the team to give this hateable franchise its comeuppance. Maye and Mike Vrabel will win this one by a whole lot.

Pick:Patriots 35-12

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Don't look now, but the Saints are one of the hottest teams in football. Winners of three in a row and four of their last six, the Saints are coming together at a good time to show that they actually have a platform to build on next season.

The Titans are still looking for that platform, and it will largely be built by a coach who is not in the building yet. So, until the Titans find better footing, the Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the Saints by at least a field goal.

Pick:Saints 21-16

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Aaron Rodgers and company are improving as the year goes on, finding more in Arthur Smith's offense now that it has become a more rush-heavy attack. Sure, not having DK Metcalf isn't great, but the Steelers are playing well enough right now to overcome that.

As for the Browns, the defense is still tough, but no longer as intimidating as it was midseason. The Cleveland offense has successfully demoralized the defense, and if Pittsburgh gets even a little momentum, this could be over quickly.

Pick:Steelers 23-12

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Maybe if the Giants' coaching staff and front office would still let Jackson Dart run, this game could be at least an exciting one. As it is, the franchise has neutered its star QB in the name of protecting him from head injuries.

The Raiders aren't really all that much better than the G Men, but they are at home ,and they looked OK last week with Ashton Jeanty running the ball more often. If they keep it simple at home, they can cover the 1.5-point spread.

Pick:Raiders 16-13

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

Well, the Bills pulled a Bills last Sunday and let the Browns hang around for no apparent reason. This team loves playing down to its competition, and now, instead of crushing Cleveland and getting Allen out of the game early, Buffalo has a signal-caller with a bum foot heading into Week 17.

The good news is, while the Bills almost always play down to their competition, they mostly play up to it as well. They might go down by three scores, but Allen generally finds a way to win and cover when the team across from them is among the NFL's elite, which the Eagles are.

Pick:Bills 35-30

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

This is a matchup we could easily see again as early as the opening week of the playoffs. So, while both teams want to win for playoff positioning, they may not be showing all their cards in this game.

Ultimately, these are two evenly matched teams, and this should be a good game. If the trends hold for the 2025 regular season, the Bears should win this one by a point or two because that's what happens pretty much every week at this point.

Pick:Bears 26-25

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are sitting on two wins in a row right now, although those two wins have come against the fading Buccaneers and bad Cardinals. As has been the case all season, the Falcons have the talent to win a lot of games, but you never know who is going to show up on a given weekend.

As for the Rams, they are fighting for the one seed still and will want to put this game away early and get ready for next week and the weeks after. Despite the two Falcons' wins, the more informative game is their Week 14 loss to the Seahawks. While the Rams just played that team in an overtime thriller, the Falcons lost 37-9.

Pick:Rams 35-20

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