The three-game NFL slate on Thanksgiving Day feels like one of the best in recent memory. It kicks off with the Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions (FOX) followed by a potential shootout at AT&T Stadium between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys . Finally, football on Thanksgiving wraps up with Joe Burrow returning for a clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens (NBC).
Let's dive into our bold predictions for the NFL Thanksgiving Games 2025, offering three projections for each matchup on Thanksgiving Day. We'll go in order from the Packers vs Lions matchup to the Bengals vs Ravens.
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In his Packers debut against the Lions, Micah Parsons recorded 1 sack and 1 tackle for loss in just 30 snaps. The All-Pro edge rusher is playing roughly 53 snaps per game. He also has a pretty strong history against Lions right tackle Penei Sewell , leading the NFL in generated pressures (seven) when facing the All-Pro lineman, That's not necessarily a knock on Sewell, but he does enter Thanksgiving Day outside the top-20 at his position in ESPN pass-block win rate and he isn't quite as dominant in pass protection as he is as a run blocker. Jared Goff does get rid of the football quickly (2.60 average seconds to throw, third-fastest in NFL ), but he does have his worst sack rate (6.13 percent) since 2021. On Thanksgiving, we think Parsons beats Sewell once for a sack on Goff and then gets another with a blitz up the middle through the heart of the Lions' interior offensive line.
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In Week 1 versus Green Bay at Lambeau Field, Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs averaged just 2.1 yards per carry with 50 scrimmage yards on 19 touches. Since then, he's averaged 128 scrimmage yards per game with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. The Packers run defense has also fallen off since a strong two-week start, allowing a 4.2 yards-per-carry average in the last nine games. With linebacker Quay Walker also banged up, a defense that ranks 23rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed (43.2 percent) since Week 3 will surrender a big day to Gibbs.
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The Lions are 3-1 at Ford Field versus the Packers in the last four seasons coming into this matchup. It's been a new era under Dan Campbell and the stakes are especially high on Thanksgiving Day as the winner would have about a 90 percent shot of making the playoffs. What Detroit has going for it on Thursday are the explosive weapons in Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams who can each deliver big plays. That's something the Packers offense doesn't have without Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft . It'll be the difference-maker in this game, with Green Bay proving too reliant on third-down conversion and big stops from its defense. Detroit pulls out a close one in the fourth quarter.
Prediction:Detroit Lions 24, Green Bay Packers 17
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Here's the issue Kansas City faces on Thanksgiving Day. Steve Spagnuolo likes to move Trent McDuffie around depending on the matchup, sometimes deploying him as the slot corner but often using him out wide. McDuffie is an All-Pro talent, but the 5-foot-11 defensive back really struggles against big-bodied wide receivers. So, Kansas City either aligns him in a matchup where the 6-foot-3 George Pickens will have the size and speed advantage, or he puts McDuffie on Lamb and allows Pickens to go up against Jaylen Watson , who has the size (6-foot-2) but not the speed to stick with Pickens. Either way, the Cowboys' No. 1B receiver will get 100-plus yards and a touchdown.
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Patrick Mahomes grew up a Cowboys fan, and he now has a chance to torch the team he grew up rooting for on Thanksgiving Day. Winning in Dallas won't be easy, especially given how inconsistent the Chiefs offense has been this season. However, Mahomes will do his part in what could be the highest-scoring NFL game in Week 13. Dallas can get after the quarterback, but its secondary is vulnerable. In the last four games, opponents have averaged 238.3 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game against Dallas. Rashee Rice will be the primary beneficiary, but Travis Kelce can have success against a defense that has allowed 56.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. With Mahomes spreading the ball around, he'll eclipse the 300-yard mark for the third time this season. Keep in mind that he's averaged 288.5 pass ypg since Week 4.
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In a fantastic battle between top quarterbacks, it'll be the better defensive mind that wins out. Steve Spagnuolo usually has a trick or two up his sleeve to limit the effectiveness of top quarterbacks. That'll be harder at AT&T Stadium, where Dallas has looked unstoppable, but one play can make the difference. A critical third-down stop inside the red zone results in the Cowboys settling for a field goal. That proves to be the difference later, with Mahomes coming through with a fourth-quarter comeback and the go-ahead touchdown pass in his return to Texas. The Cowboys will get the football back down one, but there won't be enough time to mount a true game-winning drive.
Prediction:Kansas City Chiefs 28, Dallas Cowboys 27
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While the Ravens have gotten their season back on track, this offense is still having some real issues that could pop up on Thursday night. One of the biggest is Baltimore's red-zone woes, as it comes into Week 13 with the third-lowest touchdown rate in the red zone (46.3 percent). One way to try and fix that is by going back to what works. Mark Andrews has scored 8 career touchdowns against the Bengals defense in 13 games, and Cincinnati has allowed nearly twice as many touchdowns to tight ends this season (13) as the next closest team. There's a golden opportunity here for the Ravens' red-zone woes to be solved, at least temporarily, by the Bengals defense on Thanksgiving Day.
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The Bengals have already ruled out Tee Higgins (concussion) for Week 13, but quarterback Joe Burrow will make his long-awaited return with teammate Ja'Marr Chase out there. Now is a good time to mention that Chase has five career games with 190-plus receiving yards, and three of them have come against Baltimore. With Kyle Hamilton (ankle) injured and Cincinnati in desperation mode, Burrow will pepper Chase with 18-plus targets and the All-Pro wideout will turn it into another 200-yard performance against the Ravens.
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If Lamar Jackson was healthy and the Ravens offensive line played at the standard it set last season, Baltimore would win this one fairly comfortably. However, the two-time NFL MVP is dealing with multiple injuries, and Baltimore's offensive line has been one of its biggest problems this season. That will open the door for Burrow, who is 3-6 in his career against the Ravens, to pull off the upset. Unfortunately for him, Cincinnati's defense will do what it does best and cost this team another win.
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