The NHL's contract market is changing rapidly, and that could have major implications for the New York Islanders when it's time to negotiate with franchise cornerstone Matthew Schaefer .
While an extension is still a year away, league agents already believe the young defenseman's next deal could shatter expectations.
Schaefer, the first overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, made an immediate impact in his debut season. The 18-year-old defenseman scored 23 goals and added 36 assists for 59 points in 82 games, unanimously winning the Calder Memorial Trophy.
His 23 goals tied Brian Leetch's rookie record for defensemen and made Schaefer the first rookie blueliner to score at least 20 goals in a season since the 1980s.
Although Schaefer is not eligible to sign a contract extension until July 1, 2027, league agents are already warning Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche that the market for elite young stars has changed dramatically.
One NHL agent told ESPN that Schaefer's next contract is expected to carry a double-digit average annual value. "That's happening. There's no doubt about it. There's no world in which Matthew Schaefer's next contract doesn't have a double-digit AAV."
The warning comes as the NHL contract market continues to climb. Leo Carlsson 's recent $18 million AAV offer sheet has raised the ceiling for elite young forwards, and agents believe the defenseman market is poised to follow.
Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are the two definitive titans whose pending extensions will codify the new financial reality, directly dictating what Matthew Schaefer's camp can demand when he becomes extension-eligible.
Another NHL agent suggested that Schaefer could become the first defenseman to earn more than $10 million annually on the first contract signed after an entry-level deal.
"If he repeats this in his second year and if I was Schaefer, I would not look to extend," one agent remarked.
"I would look to play my contract out to show I am who I am. I would do this for three consecutive years, and then push for whatever the market is at that point. It could be between $16 to $18 million. I would go short [term] because I would want to stay in the market," the agent said.
The Islanders may have to pay much more if they don't sign Schaefer as soon as he's eligible for an extension.
If Hughes and Makar sign market-defining deals over the next 12 months, Schaefer's historic rookie season will not simply position him among elite young defensemen. It could place him in the conversation with the highest-paid players in the NHL.
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That is the reality check facing the Islanders. Schaefer may still be on his entry-level contract, but his next deal is already shaping up to be one of the franchise's most important financial decisions in years.
