Ranking NFL Division Winners’ Chances Of Going From First To Worst In 2026

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Ranking NFL Division Winners’ Chances Of Going From First To Worst In 2026

Jason Leach · Sportsnaut

Sun, Jul 5, 2026 ·

4 min read

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We're getting closer and closer to the start of the 2026 NFL season as training camps will open at the end of this month.

In the NFL, anything can happen on a year-to-year basis. In 2025, we saw two teams, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears , go from worst to first in their respective divisions.

We rarely see the opposite scenario happen, where a team goes from first to worst, as there should be enough talent on the roster to prevent a dramatic dropoff.

But as we mentioned, anything can happen in the NFL. Although it's unlikely that any of the eight division winners from last season will finish last in 2026, here's our ranking of the chances of this happening.

1. Carolina Panthers (8-9)

NFL: Carolina Panthers Minicamp — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Carolina Panthers were fortunate to win the NFC South with an 8-9 record as both the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the same record. Although the New Orleans Saints finished last in the division, they started to show promise, winning four out of their last five games with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough .

The Panthers' leading rusher last season, Rico Dowdle , is now a Pittsburgh Steeler , and there are still questions about whether Bryce Young is a franchise quarterback. Given how evenly matched all the teams are in the NFC South, Carolina is the most likely team to go from first to worst in their division.

2. Chicago Bears (11-6)

NFL: NFC Divisional Round-Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Chicago Bears went from worst in the division in 2024 to first in 2025 thanks to rookie head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams . But now they have the toughest strength of schedule, and unlike last season, they won't sneak up on anybody

A big reason why their schedule is so difficult is because every team in the NFC North had a winning record. The Bears went 7-4 in one-possession games last season; if they do the reverse this season, they can easily go from the top to the bottom in the division.

3. Pittsburgh Steeler s (10-7)

NFL: AFC Wild Card Round-Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the first time since 2006, Mike Tomlin is not the head coach of the Steelers as Mike McCarthy enters his first season in the Steel City. Steelers ownership is hopeful that by reuniting McCarthy with quarterback Aaron Rodgers , the two can find the magic they had 16 years ago when they won a Super Bowl with the Packers .

But Rodgers is 42 and several key players on their defense, such as T.J. Watt , Jalen Ramsey , and Cameron Heyward , are all over 30 years old. Regression from an aging roster is a strong possibility this season, but since the Cleveland Browns are in the same division, this prevents the Steelers from being number one on this list.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

NFL: NFC Wild Card Round-San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Whether or not A.J Brown caused a divide in the locker room about being vocal about issues with the offense, the Philadelphia Eagles are going to miss the three-time Second Team All-Pro wideout. It's unknown if DeVonta Smith can be a true number one receiver, and quarterback Jalen Hurts will be the most scrutinized player in the league this season due to the team's offensive woes in 2025.

In addition, the other three teams in the NFC East got better this offseason by adding three All-American Ohio State Buckeyes to their defense Arvell Reese ( New York Giants ), Sonny Styles ( Washington Commanders ), and Caleb Downs ( Dallas Cowboys ). The Eagles became the first team in two decades to repeat as NFC East champs, but this year they're more likely to finish last in the division than three-peat as champs.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) rushes for yards during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South thanks to winning their final eight games of the regular season. However, losing running back Travis Etienne Jr and linebacker Devin Lloyd will hurt their chances of repeating as division champs.

But their biggest obstacle in repeating will be the Houston Texans , whose defense gave up the fewest points in the AFC (295) and could be even better this season with the addition of safety Reed Blankenship . Even if the Texans win the division, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is too talented to have the team slip below the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts .

6. Denver Broncos (14-3)

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix gets ready to fire a pass to a receiver while the Bills defense keep an eye on him during — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Denver Broncos not only won the AFC West last season, but they were the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. If Bo Nix didn't fracture his ankle in the final moments of their 33-30 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, they probably would have made it to Super Bowl LX.

The expectation is that Nix will be ready for the season opener, but the Broncos will face tough competition in their division. The Las Vegas Raiders will be improved under number one overall pick Fernando Mendoza , the Los Angeles Chargers ' scoring attack will be more explosive under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel , and the Kansas City Chiefs will bounce back once Patrick Mahomes is healthy.

Denver will see a decrease in their win total, but because of their defense, it's unlikely they'll finish last.

7. Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

NFL: Super Bowl LX-Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It wouldn't come as a shock if the defending Super Bowl Champions Seattle Seahawks took a step back this season. After all, they lost key pieces this offseason in Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

However, most of their defense, which gave up the fewest points in the NFL last season, is back, and although they play in the best division in the NFL, the Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection has been unstoppable. Even if Seattle is plagued by injuries this year, the Arizona Cardinals are arguably the worst team in the league and will finish last in the NFC West.

8. New England Patriots (14-3)

The New England Patriots benefited from having the third easiest schedule in 2025, and their opponents had a combined 124-165 record in 2024. Last year, they finished the year with a 14-3 record and went from worst to first in the AFC East. This year, they have the sixth-hardest schedule, which includes starting the season against four playoff teams from last year.

With A.J Brown now on the team, quarterback Drake Maye will once again be an MVP candidate, but their win total will decrease. Fortunately for the Super Bowl LX runner-up, they play in the same division as two of the worst teams in the league, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets . So Patriots fans don't need to worry about their team finishing last in the AFC East.

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