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What Are Reasonable Expectations for Drew Allar?
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- What Are Reasonable Expectations for Drew Allar?
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 11, 2025. -- Matthew Lynch / Nittany Sports Now
For a little over year, Pittsburgh Steelers fans have been extolling the praise of young quarterback Will Howard , the team's sixth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft , all despite never having seen him take a competitive snap in black and gold.
With the team drafting Penn State quarterback Drew Allar in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft in April, the fanbase cacophony expecting the world from a young passer now has a harmony.
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An (admittedly unscientific) poll conducted by my colleague Tim Benz of Trib Live, over 65% of the team's fanbase wants the Steelers to either start Howard or Allar in 2026.
Earlier this offseason, I looked at every quarterback drafted in the sixth round since 2000 to try to add some context to those fan expectations for Howard , and the results were eye-opening.
Of the 50, 40% of them never threw for a single NFL passing yard, 56% of them never started a game and only five, or 10% ever became a team's starting quarterback by choice.
The closest-to-average quarterback — with the average being heavily skewed by the presence of Tom Brady — was Jeff Driskel . The closest to the median was Nate Sudfeld .
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Will Howard runs off the field after a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Dec. 7, 2025. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now
OK, so while anything is possible, it would be extremely unlikely that the Steelers found their next quarterback of the future in the sixth round in Howard. But what about Allar? It has to be much more likely for a third-rounder to pan out, right?
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The answer is, sort of.
I did the same research for third-round picks that I did for sixth-round picks, looking at 25 years of draft data from 2000 to 2024. There were 32 quarterbacks drafted in the third round.
At the top of the scale was Russell Wilson , who has started 202 games and thrown for 48,966 passing yards — a true franchise quarterback. He was the only one in the sample.
Not only that, there weren't even a lot more starters. Matt Schaub started 93 games, mostly in a seven-year run as the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans , during which he was elected to two Pro Bowls.
Josh McCown , Jacoby Brissett and Nick Foles had long careers as backups but relatively little success as starters. Colt McCoy , Trent Edwards , Charlie Frye, Mike Glennon , Mason Rudolph , Desmond Ridder and Davis Mills all had short, unsuccessful stints as starters, with some of them doing a better job than others hanging around as backups. Malik Willis will get his first crack at a starting job in 2026.
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The big difference between the third-round sample and the sixth-round sample is that almost all of the third-rounders at least got a shot. Only four of the 32 did not have at least one passing yard — 12.5%, down from 40%.
The average player hasn't changed a great deal. The closest-to-average player in the sample is Edwards, with 33 starts and 6,033 yards. The closest-to-median player in the sample is Cody Kessler , with 12 starts and 2,215 career yards.
At the end of the day, a third-round choice like Allar is a lot more likely to have a successful career as a backup, and is much less likely to totally flame out, than a sixth-round pick like Howard.
But when it comes to the higher end of the upside, while the third-round sample does slightly better, it's not a lot more promising. Just 16% of the sample have 10,000 career passing yards — not a high bar — and only 3% have started more than 100 career games.
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THIRD-ROUND QBs VS. SIXTH-ROUND QBs
| * | * | * |
| * | Third-round pick |
Sixth-round pick |
| >100 games started |
3% |
2% |
| >10,000 career yards |
16% |
10% |
| Named starter |
41% |
10% |
| < 100 career yards |
22% |
50% |
| Average player |
Trent Edwards33 GS, 6,033 yds |
Jeff Driskel12 GS, 2,394 yds |
| Median player |
Cody Kessler12 GS, 2,215 yds |
Nate Sudfeld0 GS, 188 yds |
THIRD-ROUND QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED FROM 2000-24
| Year |
Player |
GS |
Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 |
202 |
48966 |
|
| 2004 |
Matt Schaub |
93 |
25467 |
| 2002 |
Josh McCown |
76 |
17731 |
| 2016 |
65 |
14766 |
|
| 2012 |
Nick Foles |
58 |
14227 |
| 2010 |
Colt McCoy |
36 |
7975 |
| 2021 |
Davis Mills |
29 |
7082 |
| 2013 |
Mike Glennon |
31 |
7025 |
| 2007 |
Trent Edwards |
33 |
6033 |
| 2018 |
19 |
4925 |
|
| 2005 |
Charlie Frye |
23 |
4154 |
| 2022 |
Desmond Ridder |
18 |
4002 |
| 2017 |
C.J. Beathard |
13 |
3886 |
| 2000 |
Chris Redman |
12 |
3179 |
| 2003 |
Chris Simms |
16 |
3117 |
| 2006 |
9 |
2463 |
|
| 2016 |
Cody Kessler |
12 |
2215 |
| 2005 |
Andrew Walter |
9 |
1919 |
| 2011 |
8 |
1835 |
|
| 2006 |
Brodie Croyle |
10 |
1669 |
| 2022 |
6 |
1322 |
|
| 2015 |
Sean Mannion |
3 |
573 |
| 2019 |
2 |
228 |
|
| 2017 |
1 |
168 |
|
| 2003 |
Dave Ragone |
2 |
135 |
| 2023 |
0 |
62 |
|
| 2008 |
Kevin O'Connell |
0 |
23 |
| 2021 |
0 |
5 |
|
| 2000 |
Giovanni Carmazzzi |
0 |
0 |
| 2005 |
David Greene |
0 |
0 |
| 2015 |
0 |
0 |
|
| 2022 |
0 |
0 |
This article originally appeared on Steelers Now : What Are Reasonable Expectations for Drew Allar?
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