Rockets vs. Spurs prediction, odds, pick – 3/8/2026

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Rockets vs. Spurs prediction, odds, pick – 3/8/2026

Dominik Zawartko, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sun, Mar 8, 2026 ·

4 min read

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We're back inside the NBA with another betting prediction and pick for the latest installment of this Western Conference divisional rivalry. The Houston Rockets (39-23)will take on the San Antonio Spurs (46-17)in their final meeting this season, the Spurs leading the series 2-1. Check our NBA odds series for the Rockets-Spurs prediction and pick.

The Houston Rockets are currently third in the Western Conference, 6.5 games behind the Spurs after beating the Portland Trail Blazers 106-99 their last time out. They've held pace as a top seed in the West, hoping to even their season series against a team they'll likely meet in the playoffs.

The San Antonio Spurs are second in the West, trailing Oklahoma City by three games after most recently beating the Clippers 116-112. They've notched some hallmark wins over their last 10 games and continue to chase the top seed in the West, looking to capitalize here as home favorites.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Rockets vs. Spurs Odds

Houston Rockets: +5.5 (-112)

San Antonio Spurs: -5.5 (-108)

Over: 222.5 (-112)

Under: 222.5 (-108)

Rockets vs. Spurs Key Injuries

Houston: Steven Adams (ankle – OUT) / Jae'Sean Tate (knee – OUT) / Fred VanVleet (knee – OUT)

San Antonio: Harrison Barnes (ankle – OUT) / Mason Plumlee (reconditioning – OUT)

Rockets vs. Spurs Betting Trends

The San Antonio Spurs are 23-6 at home. The Houston Rockets are 18-15 on the road.
The Spurs have gone 35-11 as betting favorites. The Rockets are 3-3 as underdogs.
The Spurs are 36-28 ATS overall, 17-12 ATS at home. The Rockets are 28-34 ATS overall, 17-16 ATS on the road.
The Rockets are 7-3 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Spurs.
The Spurs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games.
The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of San Antonio's last seven games.
The total has gone OVER in five of Houston's last seven games.

Keys to Rockets vs. Spurs Matchup

The San Antonio Spurs lead this season series 2-1 against Houston, winning the most recent meeting in January 111-99. The Spurs managed to steal a win on the road as both teams alternated wins and losses, but they have a chance to win this series decisively against one of their bigger threats in the West. The Spurs finished 2-0 against the Detroit Pistons this season and went 4-1 against their biggest rivals in OKC – this recent 14-1 stretch over their last 15 games has proven their standard as serious title contenders.

The Rockets, however, are built for a championship in their own right, seeing Kevin Durant (26.1 PPG) and Alperen Sengun (20.5 PPG) seriously taking the lead in the scoring efforts during this second half of the season. This biggest revelations, however, have been the leaps in improvement from Jabari Smith Jr. and massive scoring efforts from Reed Sheppard . Sheppard recently dropped 30 points on the Warriors , scoring double-digit totals over his last 12 consecutive games. Expect Sheppard and Smith to both play a huge role as the Rockets will need depth to beat the Spurs.

Victor Wembanyama is looking like the most impactful player in the league at the moment, completely changing each game with his scoring around the rim and protection of the paint. His length allows for teammates to play their assignments tighter knowing Wembanyama is usually within an arm's reach to provide help on defense. They've shown their grit all season and their latest 25-point comeback against the Clippers was evident of how hard this team is willing to hustle to win games.

The consistent scoring of Kevin Durant should be in effect throughout this game as the Rockets will likely need to find scoring from behind the arc if they want to have a chance at leading. They've managed to be the better-shooting team from three in two of the previous three meetings, so clearly it'll take a more concerted effort to find scoring from the free-throw line and in the paint.

Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

The Spurs seem to have an edge over their biggest rivals this season and their latest 25-point comeback against the Clippers has people believing this team is built for a championship. At 14-1 over their last 15 games, they're the hottest team in the league right now and clearly the biggest threat to challenge Oklahoma City for their repeat.

The Spurs could be on tired legs given their last effort against the Spurs and the Rockets will be returning a few players from short injury stints and added rest. While I still expect the Spurs to come away with a win, the physicality of the Rockets should be enough to keep this a close game and Houston within the spread.

Final Rockets-Spurs Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets -5.5 (-112)

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