Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction: College Football Playoff Round 1 Preview

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Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction: College Football Playoff Round 1 Preview

Kyle Wood · Athlon Sports

Sat, Dec 20, 2025 ·

5 min read

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Tulane earned its first College Football Playoff berth by pulling off an upset in the American Championship Game to cap off a season in which it went 2-1 against Power 4 opponents. However, that lone loss came against Ole Miss , which the Green Wave drew in the first-round of the playoff.

The Rebels routed Tulane 45-10 back in September, but a lot has changed in Oxford since then. The elephant in the room is Lane Kiffin's absence. The former Ole Miss coach bolted for the top job at rival LSU at the end of the regular season and was denied the opportunity to continue coaching the team into its first playoff appearance. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding was promoted to head coach in his stead.

On the opposite sideline, Tulane coach Jon Sumrall is living out Kiffin's dream of continuing to coach his team for the duration of its playoff run despite having accepted a position elsewhere. Sumrall is off to Florida , a destination Kiffin was linked to for much of the coaching carousel, whenever the Green Wave are eliminated.

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No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) has won 11 in a row in Oxford and boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country with Trinidad Chambliss under center. No. 11 Tulane (11-2) returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on a five-game winning streak, having knocked off would-be American contenders like Memphis and North Texas on its path here.

The Rebels lead the all-time series, 44-28, and they haven't lost to the Green Wave this century.

College Football Playoff First Round: Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds, Details

Location:Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS
Kickoff:Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV:TNT
Spread:Ole Miss -17.5
Over/Under:57.5
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer

Tulane vs. Ole Miss: Keys to Victory

Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) looks on against North Texas in the 2025 American Championship at Yulman Stadium on Dec. 5, 2025, in New Orleans, LA.© Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Why Tulane Will Win

The Green Wave defense has been exceptional over the last month, allowing just over 11 points on average over its last three games. Sumrall's squad shut down Temple , shut out Charlotte and held North Texas, the nation's No. 1 scoring offense, to a season-low 21 points. Tulane will have to keep up that high level of play to keep the Rebels' offense contained.

Much of the Green Wave's defensive production is turnover-dependent. The Mean Green won the yardage battle in the conference title game, but Tulane forced five turnovers. The Green Wave boast a plus-10 turnover margin this season and 24 takeaways in 13 games. Ole Miss is minus-two on the year, though Chambliss has only thrown three interceptions. Mistakes are few and far between for the Rebels' offense — if and when they happen, Tulane must take advantage.

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The Green Wave offense runs through dual-threat quarterback Retzlaff, who's the team's top rusher with 16 touchdowns on the year. Luckily for Retzlaff, running back Jamauri McClure has hit his stride over the last month with a pair of 100-yard games. The way to beat Ole Miss is on the ground, and Retzlaff and McClure could find room to room to run behind a stout offensive line. Special teams is the one area where Tulane has a true leg up. Kicker Patrick Durkin and punter Alec Clark were both named to the American Conference First Team.

Why Ole Miss Will Win

Chambliss ran rampant the first time these teams met, finishing with a season-high 112 yards on the ground to go with 307 through the air. And that was in just his second start for the Rebels. He's now had almost a full season in the offense. And though Kiffin is gone, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is still calling plays. Chambliss has ample receiving options between Harrison Wallace III , Deuce Alexander, Cayden Lee and De'Zhaun Stribling, all of whom have more than 500 receiving yards on the year.

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Few offenses create as many explosive plays as Ole Miss, one of 12 teams with more than 200 plays of 10-plus yards this season. Chambliss provides plenty of fireworks with his downfield passing, while running back Kewan Lacy rounds out the offense between the tackles. Lacy, who ran for over 200 yards a few weeks ago against Florida, ranks ninth in the FBS in rushing yards (1,279) and second in touchdowns (20). He enters the CFP on a six-game scoring streak with seven touchdowns in his last three games.

The Rebels' defense finished out the regular season strong, surrendering 20-plus points just once over its final four games. Golding's group has been vulnerable against the run but doesn't give up much through the air. The Green Wave ran for 178 yards in the first meeting, but Retzlaff finished with just 56 passing yards before his backup took over in the blow out.

Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20

Earlier in the season, the Rebels had some close calls, including one-score wins over Kentucky , Arkansas and Washington State . Even at that point when they were still working things out, they didn't leave anything to chance against the Green Wave. Ole Miss has gotten better as the season progressed and the lone blemish on its résumé is a one-possession loss to Georgia. This was a tough matchup for Tulane in the regular season and in 2024, and that remains true on an even bigger stage for both teams.

ATS:Ole Miss -17.5
O/U:Over 57.5

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 20, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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