Victor Wembanyama, Spurs throw wrench in Thunder's dynasty dreams – pressure is on this offseason to respond appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .
When the San Antonio Spurs took down the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-109 in Las Vegas to advance to the NBA Cup Championship , many eyebrows were raised around the NBA. In the bowels of T-Mobile Arena, one common question was being thrown around media members in a joking manner:
Could the Spurs actually contend in the West right now and take down the Thunder following their championship run?
Some of those immediately clinging to this question were serious, but the vast majority in the media room were simply latching onto the biggest talking point for shows and their takeaway stories. At the end of the day, this was just one loss by the defending champions, just their second all season to that point, and the Thunder were still everyone's choice to win the West.
The idea that the Spurs, even with Victor Wembanyama emerging as a real MVP candidate, would have a breakthrough year and be able to take down the almighty Thunder with all their depth and championship pedigree was nothing more than a silly thought being tossed around among the media at the NBA Cup.
Think of it as a general conversation on Sunday in the booth between Jim Nantz asking Tony Romo something and his response being the classic, "I don't know, Jim!"
San Antonio would play the Thunder exactly 10 days after meeting in Las Vegas, followed by a much-anticipated Christmas Day battle . The Spurs went on to win both games, and those conversations about whether their NBA Cup win over Oklahoma City was a fluke or a one-off were no more.
Well, six months later, we have our answer as clear as day after the Spurs took down the Thunder in seven games to advance to the 2026 NBA Finals and win the Western Conference for the first time since 2014. In just his third season at 22 years old, Wembanyama has led what is one of the youngest teams in the league to the Finals and is just four wins away from the franchise's sixth championship.
Everyone around the league always pointed to the Spurs when asked who would be the biggest threat to Oklahoma City's budding dynasty in the West, but nobody really believed that San Antonio would emerge this quickly. With Wembanyama, Stephon Castle , Dylan Harper , and all of their depth, the Spurs proved that they not only caught up to the Thunder in the blink of an eye, but they've also passed the defending champions.
Entering the playoffs, it really didn't seem like anyone was going to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming off back-to-back regular-season MVPs, especially once the Thunder began their postseason run by sweeping both the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers . All seemed to be aligned for a second championship run in Oklahoma City, yet another parade is not on the schedule this summer.
Instead, Sam Presti and his staff will now prepare for the 2026 NBA Draft in three weeks and hold lengthy conversations about several key topics pertaining to the state of the organization.
Obviously, Gilgeous-Alexander and head coach Mark Daigneault aren't going anywhere. Neither is Ajay Mitchell , who had a breakout second year in the league and is under contract for at least two more years on the best deal in the league based on his production.
But this Thunder team is expected to look different entering the 2026-27 season, especially with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams ' extensions kicking in, which currently put this team over the second apron.
This has long been Presti's plan . Viewed by many of his peers as the best executive in the league, Presti maxed out his three stars last season (Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren) because he knew the team had flexibility and plenty of future draft capital to continue building the back end of the roster.
The Thunder can easily move out of the aprons and remain in good financial standing. However, key talents like Isaiah Hartenstein , Luguentz Dort , and Kenrich Williams all have team options, which, when combined, total close to $54 million. Cason Wallace will also be eligible for an extension, and Presti has two first-round picks at No. 12 and No. 17 overall to make decisions on.
Not to mention, Williams' injury struggles all year and Holmgren folding in the Western Conference Finals have led to many league personnel wondering if the Thunder and Presti will stay the course this offseason with what they've built or make major adjustments based on what happened against San Antonio.
After all, in a conference that now appears to be run by Wembanyama and the Spurs, there is no time to waste if the Thunder are to reclaim their spot representing the Western Conference in the 2027 NBA Finals and compete for another title to keep their dynasty talk going.
An offseason full of question marks now ensues for the 2025 NBA champions, starting with an evaluation of Holmgren's career year that couldn't have ended any worse.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
All season, the Thunder dealt with adjusting to life without Jalen Williams . Multiple hamstring injuries and a wrist injury to begin the year led to the All-NBA wing playing in just 33 games during the regular season, which led to elevated roles for Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe , Cason Wallace, and especially Chet Holmgren as the team's go-to options on offense outside of their MVP leader.
Holmgren made his first All-Star appearance, he made both the All-NBA and All-Defensive lists for the first time in his career, and he averaged a career-high 17.1 points per game while shooting a career-best 55.7 percent from the floor.
Despite Williams' health concerns, Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren led this team to 64 wins and the best record in the NBA once again. All season, Holmgren always looked like an All-NBA talent… until he looked at the calendar and saw the Spurs circled.
This rivalry, or whatever we want to call it, between Wembanyama and Holmgren doesn't deserve to be called a rivalry right now simply because of how one-sided it is. Wembanyama has dominated Holmgren to the point where many, after the Western Conference Finals, are questioning whether Oklahoma City should even keep him.
Let's just start with looking at the regular -eason matchups between the two before diving into Holmgren's no-show against the Spurs in the conference finals.
Holmgren and Wembanyama played against one another in four of their team's five regular-season clashes this year. The Spurs superstar averaged 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game while shooting 51.1 percent from the floor against Holmgren and Oklahoma City during the regular season.
Specifically against Holmgren, Wembanyama shot 9-of-16 (56.3 percent) from the floor when guarded by Holmgren or having the Thunder big man's hand in his face. Multiple times during their regular-season duels, Wembanyama isolated himself against Holmgren on the perimeter and found a lot of success attacking the lane, with the Thunder star unable to keep the French phenom in front of him.
This led to Daigneault and the Thunder opting to have Williams, Alex Caruso , and Isaiah Hartenstein guard Wemby instead of Holmgren.
As far as Holmgren's production (or lack thereof, we should say) against the Spurs this season, he averaged 10.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game while shooting 38.7 percent from the floor in four games.
Now onto the Western Conference Finals, where much of the same happened, only worse for Holmgren.
Although Holmgren was effective at times guarding Wembanyama at the rim in the playoffs, holding Wemby to 14-of-30 shooting in the seven-game series while guarding him, the inability to guard him one-on-one from perimeter to post caused major problems for the Thunder's defense.
That is why Holmgren only played 30 or more minutes three times, including the Game 1 double-overtime thriller, after playing over 30 minutes in all four games of the previous series against Los Angeles .
Another factor that played a role in Daigneault shifting his focus to Hartenstein, who had more defensive success against Wembanyama, and Jaylin Williams in the frontcourt, was Holmgren averaging just 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game while shooting 51.0 percent from the floor and 27.3 percent from 3-point range against San Antonio.
Holmgren scored more than 10 points in just one of the final four games of this series, finishing Game 7 with just four points, which he scored in the first half. He took just two shots in the final game of the series, none of which came in the second half.
This is an All-NBA, first-time All-Star who has been essential to the Thunder's success and an even bigger focal point for them with both Williams and Mitchell out, yet Wembanyama neutralized him instantly and made Holmgren nonexistent in this series. As a result, the Thunder big man was blamed by fans on social media and by those on daily sports talk shows for Oklahoma City losing this series.
Things clearly would've been different with Williams and Mitchell healthy, and he is obviously a better player with those two on the court next to Gilgeous-Alexander, but the fact of the matter is that this was Holmgren's first massive test against Wembanyama and a team the Thunder will need to get past in the playoffs to win more championships moving forward.
He failed and was not even close to passing this test.
So, what happens now with Holmgren, who will now enter the first year of his massive five-year, $239 million contract extension signed last offseason and set to make $41.25 million during the 2026-27 season? After all, this isn't the first time Holmgren has struggled on offense in the playoffs, as he has shot just 30.1 percent from deep in 48 career postseason games.
The easy answer, and one some around the league have suggested, is to trade the 24-year-old All-Defensive big man while he still has value at the start of his mega contract. Perhaps Holmgren's long-term future will come up as a minor talking point for Presti and other high-ranking front-office members in Oklahoma City this offseason, but the Thunder are by no means looking to move him this summer, two sources close to the organization told ClutchPoints on Monday.
Whereas some with other organizations have suggested the obvious swap of draft capital and Holmgren for Giannis Antetokounmpo to combat Wembanyama's rise for years to come, this simply isn't a scenario the Thunder have ever expressed interest in. Would that change now that they failed to make the NBA Finals again, and given Holmgren's struggles?
Again, it's hard to see that happening, especially with teams around the league of the mindset that Antetokounmpo, if traded by Milwaukee , wants to remain in the Eastern Conference.
Trading Holmgren to move into the top three of this year's draft and possibly select Cameron Boozer , whom multiple league sources say the Thunder have clear interest in, would be the most likely scenario IFthere was a move to be made with the former No. 2 overall pick.
But again, this appears to be nothing more than a fantasy one could live out on NBA 2K, as a trade-up scenario for Oklahoma City would be with the intention of keeping Holmgren and pairing him with Boozer in the frontcourt for years to come.
Do not think about all of this trade-up stuff with the Thunder all that much, as sources from multiple teams in both conferences have been adamant lately that the top four in this year's draft isn't changing.
There are clear and obvious roster changes that will be made in Oklahoma City this summer. Even though Holmgren's list of lackluster performances against Wembanyama and the Spurs sticks out, especially days after his awful Game 7 performance, moving on from Holmgren doesn't appear to be in Presti's deck of cards right now.
Next year, should the same offensive limitations and playoff problems persist, specifically against Wembanyama and the Spurs, that is when it would be time to pull the trigger on moving Holmgren. Timing is everything in this league, though, and when it comes to Presti, always expect the unexpected.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Although Holmgren, Williams, and Gilgeous-Alexander will make a combined $123 million during the 2026-27 season, taking up roughly 75 percent of the Thunder's cap, Presti and this organization still have a lot of financial flexibility.
The main reason for this is Hartenstein's $28.5 million team option, Lu Dort's $18.2 million team option, and Kenrich Williams' $7.2 million team option. When Presti agreed to these contracts years ago, he did so envisioning that Holmgren and Williams would turn into max players alongside SGA.
As always, Presti was right, which is why these three contracts can now offer the Thunder clear relief in the offseason to maintain their position without tearing things down like other teams facing the second apron tend to do.
Despite losing in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder are still a young team that isn't going anywhere anytime soon. They will enter the 2026-27 NBA season as a favorite to win it all yet again, especially since Presti is not expected to make any monumental changes to the roster.
There is a small possibility that Hartenstein's team option will get picked up, but the league-wide belief is that he and the team will agree on a new long-term extension upon declining his $28.5 million option. As reported by ClutchPoints on May 13, the expectation is that Hartenstein will re-sign with the Thunder at a smaller cap figure to help the team.
After all, he is an integral part of Oklahoma City's rotation , and the team will need Hartenstein around to go up against Wembanyama moving forward. It would come as a shock if the German big man wasn't on the Thunder's roster to begin the 2026-27 season.
The same cannot be said for Kenrich Williams, who will have his $7.2 million team option declined. Whether or not he will remain with the team on a minimum contract will come down to if the Thunder actually have a roster spot for him.
As for Dort, he is the big question mark among the three players with team options for next season. Dort has long been an integral part of the Thunder's rotation as one of their defensive anchors on the perimeter. After entering the league as a non-shooting threat, Dort instantly became one of the best 3-and-D wings over the last two seasons before regressing this year and shooting just 34.4 percent from deep, with that number dipping to 30.8 percent during the playoff run. Dort was especially ineffective against the Spurs, shooting 34.3 percent overall and 20.0 percent from 3-point land while Oklahoma City got crushed in his minutes every game.
Not to mention, Dort has suddenly drawn the label of being a dirty player by rival teams for his on-court antics regarding unnatural leg movements on shooters and his hard fouls. This season specifically, Dort got into it with Nikola Jokic multiple times and was ejected from a game against the Denver Nuggets for intentionally tripping the three-time MVP.
While Gilgeous-Alexander is a big fan of Dort and will reportedly lobby to keep him despite claiming he has no "zero" interest in shaping roster decisions , whether or not the veteran actually sticks around could come down to the Thunder's belief in other players on the roster. Cason Wallace has clearly stepped into a larger role and to become an All-Defensive talent on the perimeter this season after leading the league in total steals (150). Not to mention, he's a more consistent 3-point shooting threat than Dort and has the ability to make plays off the dribble.
The questions for Wallace, however, revolve around him entering the final year of his rookie contract and being eligible for a contract extension. Wallace is expected to eclipse $20 million per season on an extension based on his market value around the league. Dyson Daniels just received a four-year, $100 million deal from the Atlanta Hawks , and this contract will be used as a baseline for Wallace and his representation.
Then again, Wallace pointed out how he isn't focused on the money or any of that in his end-of-season comments.
"I love the Thunder. But I'm more focused on getting better this summer and being able to go back out there and compete," Wallace said. "I'm not money-driven. I want to compete, that's my main focus. So whether I get paid this summer or not, you know, I'm going to get better because that's what I have to do to stay in this league."
It is certainly possible that Wallace and the Thunder hold off long-term contract negotiations until he hits restricted free agency and the team has a better idea where they will be financially following the 2026-27 season. In terms of the long-term future, it's still very hard to envision Wallace and Dort co-existing unless Dort takes a significant pay cut.
Presti may very well need to make his choice this offseason, which is why the No. 12 and No. 17 picks are vital to the Thunder and can provide immediate replacements.
ClutchPoints has already reported that the Thunder will be active in trade discussions involving both of their first-round picks , with many around the league believing the team will move at least one of these two selections. It is certainly possible that Presti pinpoints a talent in the top 10 of this draft and packages these two selections with another draft asset to move up and replace one of the players he's set to move on from this summer.
Even if Hartenstein is willing to take a $10 million pay cut and the Thunder cut ties with Williams, this team will still be about $12 million over the second apron, and that doesn't include the guaranteed rookie contracts for their two projected first-round picks.
Dort's deal could be restructured, and the Thunder could momentarily keep him, but doing so would almost ensure Aaron Wiggins or Isaiah Joe, or maybe even both players, being traded.
Joe, despite his success since joining the Thunder in 2022, would be the most likely player to be dealt since he has an $11.3 million team option for the 2027-28 season and can offer any team that wants him immediate 3-point production for less than the mid-level exception. Jared McCain 's arrival and production in Oklahoma City have also made Joe more expendable to this team.
Counting both first-round picks owned by the Thunder, as well as those with team options, Oklahoma City is projected to have 17 players on the roster right now. That means some type of move will need to be made, whether that's letting Williams go and trading a first-round pick or some other scenario.
No matter what, the focus for Presti and the Thunder is remaining in good financial standing under the second apron, which they are prepared to do.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
This season is one big what-if scenario for the Thunder.
What if Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell were healthy for the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs? What if Chet Holmgren gave them just a little bit more production, especially on offense, and added pressure to San Antonio? What if Dort was knocking down shots instead of bricks in the Western Conference Finals?
There was a clear opportunity for the Thunder to get back to the NBA Finals and defend their title, but that simply wasn't in the basketball gods' plans.
Perhaps this is a blessing in disguise for the Thunder to not only take a step back and not get in over their heads, but also readjust their overall mindset. After all, they have gone from the hunted to the hunters, with the Spurs now being the top team in the West, which will allow Oklahoma City to prove itself again, much like the 2024-25 season.
The Game 7 loss will only make the Thunder a hungrier team, which makes them even more dangerous than they've been over the last few years.
It is no secret that Williams' injury struggles and Holmgren's lack of productivity against the Spurs will be the key talking points entering the offseason, but that won't be the focus in Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander made this clear in his final comments on the year, specifically making sure to support both Williams and Holmgren as his two star teammates.
"Yeah, I mean, not having Dub (Jalen) for the whole year basically sucked. He's just like a unicorn out there," the Thunder two-time MVP said. "He's a 20-point-per-game scorer that guards one through five. Last season, he got All-NBA for offense, All-NBA for defense, and was an All-Star all in the same season. So like, I mean, losing a guy like that just hurts.
"And Chet… we need Chet. Before Chet was here, we weren't who we are today. We didn't have the success we had today. Like when he's the best version of himself, we're the best version of ourselves, and it's no secret."
As for Holmgren's disappearance in the Western Conference Finals and whether Gilgeous-Alexander will work with him in the offseason, the 27-year-old leader made it clear he doesn't need to approach his big man and tell him what he needs to do differently in the summer.
"I haven't talked to Chet about that. I don't… I won't. I also don't feel like I need to," Gilgeous-Alexander admitted. "I also didn't perform my greatest series either, and Chet won't come to me with a development plan for the summer. Chet knows how much I care about this game and want to be the best version of myself every night out there on the floor. And I know how much Chet loves this game and wants to be the best version of himself out there every night on the floor.
"All you can do is use that experience to get better, which is what I've done in my career. It's what Chet's done in his career. I have no doubt he'll continue to do that… Chet will figure it out."
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Thunder have gone 189-57 during the regular season, making two conference finals appearances and winning it all in 2025. This team has been built around their three pinnacles in Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren, which is why that won't change entering the offseason.
While we don't know exactly what tweaks Presti will make to the roster ahead of the 2026-27 season, what we do know is that the Thunder will be more motivated than ever to prove this year's playoff run was a fluke and that this group has what it takes to win their second championship.
The Spurs and Thunder will likely meet one another again in next year's playoffs, which will be yet another battle for supremacy between two franchises that will run the NBA for the next decade.
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