There's nothing like Rivalry Week in college football. For so many of these matchups, the old saying about "throw the records out" is appropriate, as last season's stunning victory by the Michigan Wolverines over the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes demonstrated. That's what makes Week 14 so exciting.
Previewing the best college football games this week, our entire focus is on rivalry games. From the Egg Bowl and Clean, Old Fashioned Hate and the return of the Lone Star Showdown on Friday to a Saturday slate including The Game and the Iron Bowl, the matchups couldn't get any better and the hate between all of these programs is very real.
Let's dive into our college football predictions for Rivalry Week, projecting the outcomes of the biggest games.
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If circumstances were normal for the Egg Bowl on Friday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium, the Mississippi Rebels would be heavy favorites and a strong pick to dominate the Mississippi State Bulldogs . Thanks to Lane Kiffin, this is far from an ordinary situation. The swirling rumors of a potential departure to LSU or Florida, with an announcement coming the day after the Egg Bowl, hang a cloud over Ole Miss vs Mississippi State.
Related: Ole Miss Coaching Candidates if Lane Kiffin Leaves
On paper, this is a great matchup for Rebels running back Kewan Lacy. The sophomore comes into Week 14 having averaged 146.7 rushing yards per game (440) with a 6.6 yards-per-carry average in the last three weeks. He's taking on a Bulldogs defense that ranks 119th nationally against the run, allowing 189.8 rush ypg and a 4.96 yards-per-carry average. This is also a favorable matchup for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, given Mississippi State's pass rush ranks 86th nationally in sacks per game (1.82) and 95th in TFLs per game (4.9).
It's just that lingering question about whether the seemingly inevitable departure of Kiffin and how he's allowed these rumors to hang over the football team for weeks, all culminating in a big reveal after the Egg Bowl, could prove a distraction. For now, we're banking on the Rebels' talent to overcome it.
Prediction:Ole Miss Rebels 35, Mississippi State Bulldogs 24
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We'll start with the obvious: matchups between the Georgia Bulldogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets belong on campus in front of a raucous crowd, not at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It's also important to recognize that while the Bulldogs are nearly a two-touchdown favorite to beat the Yellow Jackets on Friday afternoon, the 44–42 game that went to eight overtimes last season demonstrates that anything can happen in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.
Our concern from Georgia Tech's perspective is its defense. In the last three games, the Yellow Jackets surrendered 41.3 points and 510.7 total yards per game, with its opponents averaging an alarming 7.4 yards per play with a 47.2 percent third-down conversion rate.
Georgia Tech can't afford to fall behind big in this game, and its greatest strength, running the football (215.2 rushing yards per game), will be tested by a Bulldogs defense that has allowed just 70.3 rushing yards per game in the last three weeks. Furthermore, opponents are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry against Georgia this season. We just see a scenario unfolding where Gunner Stockton gets the Bulldogs up by two scores early and forces the Yellow Jackets to play a game script they aren't comfortable with. Plus, Georgia has the advantages in the trenches.
Prediction:Georgia Bulldogs 35, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 21
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It's the Lone Star Showdown and there are College Football stakes for both sides. For the Texas Longhorns , a victory on Friday night opens the door for a playoff spot despite being a three-loss team. It would also mean Arch Manning delivers a signature win, something that can carry over into his junior season. As for the Texas A&M Aggies, beating Texas in Austin would be the icing on the cake of a historic season and the final proof that this isn't the same perennial eight-win program that it used to be. Oh, a win also clinches a spot in the SEC Championship Game and could mean a potential first-round bye in the playoffs.
This matchup also feels totally different from last season's 17-7 win at Kyle Field for the Longhorns. That's because the Aggies (301.9 total ypg allowed) have the slightly better defense than Texas (335.5 total ypg allowed). Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has also made significant strides as a passer since his last meeting versus the Longhorns, a defense that has allowed a 152.2 passer rating and a 6.0 yards-per-play average in the last three games.
We also remain a bit skeptical of Manning behind this offensive line. Texas has allowed a 5.59 percent sack rate this season (63rd in FBS), and the Aggies defense leads the nation in sacks per game (3.8) with by far the most sack yards lost (297) in the country. On Friday night at Texas Memorial Stadium, Reed and the Aggies' defense cap off their undefeated regular season.
Prediction:Texas A&M Aggies 28, Texas Longhorns 21
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The Buckeyes were nearly a three-touchdown favorite last season at home when Ryan Day and Will Howard were stunned by the Wolverines in a 13-10 loss at home. A year later, The Game is at Michigan Stadium and the Wolverines come into this one as a much better team than in their last meeting with the Buckeyes.
Still, Ohio State is a double-digit favorite to win at The Big House. Part of the reason for that is Michigan will be without star running back Justice Haynes (season-ending injury), and fellow back Jordan Marshall will be playing through a shoulder injury. As with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate for Ohio State, though, the star power for these offenses will be out on the field for The Game.
What decides this matchup is the advantages at quarterback and on defense. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin enters Rivalry Week with the highest single-season completion rate (79.4 percent) in college football history. In his first year as the starter, he's shown decision-making, ball placement, and a football IQ that is beyond his years. Meanwhile, Michigan will need its run game to take pressure off true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has completed just 62.2 percent of his passes with a 3.3 percent passing touchdown rate.
The Buckeyes defense is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (80.0) and the fourth-lowest yards-per-carry average (2.67) this season. That sets up a lot of third-and-longs against the nation's best pass defense (5.1 ypa, 126.6 pass ypg, and 5-6 TD-INT allowed in 11 games). As long as Ohio State rides its passing game and defense, it should win at Michigan. That's just not a given with Ryan Day.
Prediction:Ohio State Buckeyes 21, Michigan Wolverines 10
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The Cascade Clash always seems to fall below the radar on Rivalry Week. While it might not get as much national attention as the best rivalry games, there's plenty of bad blood between the Oregon Ducks and the Washington Huskies . That's especially the case on Saturday afternoon at Husky Stadium, with the Huskies having an opportunity to do serious damage to the Ducks' momentum before the College Football Playoff.
Washington might be a three-loss team with just one victory over a ranked opponent (Illinois), but Ohio State can attest to how difficult it is to win at Husky Stadium. Back in September, the Buckeyes only had a 14-6 lead entering the fourth quarter. While they went on to win 24-6, it was a fight until the end.
The issue for Washington might prove to be the inconsistency of sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr. He tore up Illinois (78.8 percent completion rate, 4-0 TD-INT) and UCLA (4 total touchdowns), but he threw 3 interceptions versus Michigan and finished under 150 net passing yards versus both Ohio State and Wisconsin. Oregon, meanwhile, has allowed the second-lowest passer rating (101.59) among Power 4 teams, and it has recorded more interceptions (14) than touchdowns allowed (10).
Even if Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. can't play versus Washington, the Ducks still have tight end Kenyon Sadiq (8 touchdowns and 13.3 yards per catch) and Malik Benson. If there is a path to victory for the Huskies, it's their stout run defense (3.46 ypc allowed) shutting down Noah Whittington and Williams Jr playing like he has at home (76.7 percent completion rate, 10-0 TD-INT and 10.6 ypa) all year.
Prediction:Oregon Ducks 24, Washington Huskies 21
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For the Vanderbilt Commodores, a win at Neyland Stadium on Rivalry Week would mean two things. Most importantly, a good shot of making the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history . A victory would also mean that Diego Pavia finally gets his redemption after last season's brutal performance against the Tennessee Volunteers.
At home, Tennessee would love nothing more than to extinguish Pavia's Heisman Trophy candidacy, keep Vanderbilt out of the playoff, and spoil a magical season for their rival. We could also see Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel put a lot more on the shoulders of his quarterback, given the Commodores defense has allowed just 105.1 rush ypg and a 3.68 yards-per-carry average to its opponents this season.
Joey Aguilar can attack this secondary. Through 11 games this season, Vanderbilt's defense ranks 111th in passing yards allowed per game (248.3) and it surrenders 6.97 yards per attempt. The issue for Tennessee is that its defense is nearly just as bad (247.1 pass ypg and 7.08 ypa allowed). This is going to be a shootout, but we think home-field advantage and a season-best performance from Aguilar propels Tennessee to a win.
Prediction:Tennessee Volunteers 35, Vanderbilt Commodores 31
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The last time we got an Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium between a top-10 Alabama program and the unranked Auburn Tigers, the Crimson Tide needed a go-ahead touchdown on 4th-and-Goal from the 31-yard line to win, despite outgaining Auburn by over 100 yards and winning the turnover battle (3-0). So, chaos can absolutely happen on Saturday.
It's worth keeping in mind heading into the Iron Bowl that Auburn nearly won at Vanderbilt a few weeks ago thanks to Ashton Daniels putting up 4 total touchdowns with 442 total yards of offense. He was then kept out versus Mercer to preserve a year of eligibility, but should be out there Saturday to face Alabama.
We just don't see Kalen DeBoer letting this one slip away, not with a potential playoff spot and his job security at stake. Ty Simpson will propel Alabama to a critical road victory on Saturday night, with Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams both finding the end zone. Auburn's potential game-tying drive in the fourth ends on an INT.
Prediction:Alabama Crimson Tide 28, Auburn Tigers 24
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