Who will win 2026 NBA Draft Lottery? 100 simulations predict ultimate winner

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Who will win 2026 NBA Draft Lottery? 100 simulations predict ultimate winner

Brett Siegel, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, May 6, 2026 ·

11 min read

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Who will win 2026 NBA Draft Lottery? 100 simulations predict ultimate winner appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

In a matter of days, we will know the complete order of the 2026 NBA Draft, which will change the landscape of the league as we know it with high-level prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer , and Darryn Peterson sitting at the top of draft boards . But who will ultimately receive the No. 1 pick? That is for the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery to decide.

On Sunday, the NBA will conduct the official lottery drawing with members of the league's legal department and representatives from the law firm Ernst & Young confirming the results in front of team executives and a select group of media in a locked room before the official draft order is shared with the world at 3 p.m. ET.

The stakes across the NBA have never been higher, as this is one of the most anticipated draft lotteries, not just to land the top pick but to see who moves into the top four and who potentially falls. Tanking has been one of the biggest topics during the 2025-26 NBA season, and now all those franchises that had been focusing on the draft since the beginning of the year face either their greatest triumph or mistake.

While the Washington Wizards , Indiana Pacers , and Brooklyn Nets all own the best odds (14%) to land the first pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, if we know anything from the lottery through the years, it's that the ultimate results always deliver surprises. Teams are always moving up inside the top four despite having minimal odds, and we should expect no less this year.

Although there is no way of telling what will ultimately happen on Sunday during the NBA Draft Lottery, we collected data from 100 different simulations here at ClutchPoints to try to deliver you the answers you need about this year's draft odds and potential positions.

The results from these 100 simulations did not disappoint when it came to potential drama, and there was a clear top team that appeared the most for the first overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Who wins 2026 NBA Draft Lottery in 100 simulations?

Thanks to our friends over at Tankathon and their tools, we were able to run 100 different 2026 NBA Draft Lottery simulations utilizing the exact percentages each team possesses entering Sunday's real lottery.

The Wizards, Pacers, and Nets all own a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings are at 11.5%, the Memphis Grizzlies sit at 9%, and so on.

All of these data points were utilized and factored into the simulation, and it presents us with what we will witness on Sunday: a random drawing where there is no guarantee any of the worst teams in the league end up with the No. 1 pick, and multiple teams could wind up jumping into the top four.

Over 100 different draft lottery simulations, these were the results for how many times each team ended up with the first, second, third, and fourth selections, which would indicate that one of their combinations appeared during the drawing:

#1-4 SIMULATION	No. 1 Pick (per 100)	No. 2 Pick (per 100)	No. 3 Pick (per 100)	No. 4 Pick (per 100)
Washington Wizards (14%)	19	14	16	11
Indiana Pacers (14%)*	13	13	15	8
Brooklyn Nets (14%)	9	18	7	16
Utah Jazz (11.5%)	12	10	13	17
Sacramento Kings (11.5%)	12	13	8	8
Memphis Grizzlies (9.0%)	10	10	13	7
New Orleans Pelicans (6.8%)**	7	5	8	13
Dallas Mavericks (6.7%)	6	7	5	7
Chicago Bulls (4.5%)	6	2	7	3
Milwaukee Bucks (3.0%)**	2	1	5	2
Golden State Warriors (2.0%)	1	3	1	3
Los Angeles Clippers (1.5%)^	2	3	1	4
Miami Heat (1.0%)	1	1	0	1
Charlotte Hornets (0.5%)	0	0	1	0

*IND pick goes to LAC if outside top four.
** NOP/MIL pick goes to ATL; whichever is higher.
^LAC pick goes to OKC.

As one can tell from the data, the Wizards were the winners of the lottery simulation, claiming the No. 1 pick in 19 of the 100 simulations, 19% of the time. As expected, four of the five teams with odds greater than 10% to land the No. 1 pick during the real draft lottery ended up appearing at the top of the list the most.

The Pacers won the simulated lottery 13 times, and tied for third were the Jazz and Kings at 12 times. Unfortunately for the Nets, they were left out of the fun, finishing behind the Memphis Grizzlies (10 times) at nine simulations with the No. 1 pick despite owning 14% odds at the top choice.

Maybe this is reverse fortune for the Nets, and they will actually wind up winning the real lottery since they got the short end of the stick in these simulations.

Going down the list, the four teams with 2% or fewer odds to pull off a miracle and claim the top pick appeared at the top of the simulation a combined four times. The Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat each won the lottery simulation once, while the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be giving their pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder , won the lottery twice.

While they were unlucky in the simulation when it came to the No. 1 pick, the Nets did finish in second the most times (18). The Wizards (14), Pacers (13), and Kings (13) followed Brooklyn when looking at the second pick.

Washington also finished the most times with the third pick, and the Jazz were the most frequent team to appear for the fourth pick. Interestingly enough, the Pacers, who will keep their pick if it lands in the top four (52.1%), ended up inside the top four of the simulation just 49 times.

Outside of the simulation results for the top four picks, this is what the rest of the data looked like for Picks 5-14:

#5-14 SIMULATION	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9	#10	#11	#12	#13	#14
WAS	40	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
IND	31	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
BKN	21	24	5	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
UTA	4	26	16	2	X	X	X	X	X	X
SAC	4	20	28	5	2	X	X	X	X	X
MEM	X	10	28	20	1	1	X	X	X	X
NOP	X	X	23	34	9	0	1	X	X	X
DAL	X	X	X	39	31	5	0	0	X	X
CHI	X	X	X	X	57	22	3	0	0	X
MIL	X	X	X	X	X	72	16	2	0	0
GSW	X	X	X	X	X	X	80	12	0	0
LAC	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	86	4	0
MIA	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	96	1
CHA	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	99

It is really interesting to see that the Wizards finished at the top of the lottery simulation 19 times, but then they also appeared the most times for the No. 3 pick and the No. 5 pick. The only way for the Wizards to fall out of the top four entirely is if two teams move up in the lottery, which has actually happened quite a bit in recent years, and their combinations are not selected.

The rest of the data is not all that surprising regarding who finished with the most appearances in the No. 8 through No. 14 slots, as those are all the teams reflecting their realistic odds and probability.

You never know who is going to make the jump in the NBA Draft Lottery, and that is what these 100 simulations proved. The No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft is highly coveted by all the teams with a chance of obtaining it in Sunday's lottery, and it certainly means something different to all of them.

What earning No. 1 pick means for each lottery team

As of right now, AJ Dybantsa is widely presumed to be the favorite among almost all the lottery teams to be the first player taken in June's draft. However, there is still a lot of time between now and then. Anything can change, especially throughout the pre-draft process and the entire week following the lottery drawing on Sunday at the NBA Draft Combine.

Nonetheless, Dybantsa's athleticism, pure scoring abilities, and versatility on the wing is why teams like the Wizards, Nets, Jazz, and Kings all need the first pick. These franchises have been rebuilding and need a young spark to finally kick them in the right direction. Dybantsa can be that type of player for all four struggling franchises.

The BYU product would also be the perfect face for the Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls' rebuilds, as well as quite the long-term partner next to Cooper Flagg on the Dallas Mavericks.

At the very bottom of the lottery odds, Dybantsa could instantly lift these playoff threats to title-contending status. Just imagine what Dybantsa could do with the Miami Heat or on the Charlotte Hornets next to LaMelo Ball , Kon Knueppel , and Brandon Miller .

Dybantsa is clearly the top prospect in this year's draft class, which is why he is ranked No. 1 on ClutchPoints' 2026 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0. With this said, it's definitely not a given that Dybantsa will instantly pack his bags and prepare to head to whichever team wins the lottery on Sunday.

For example, what happens if the Indiana Pacers, a team that doesn't necessarily need a ball-dominant wing like Dybantsa, wins the lottery? In terms of fit, Cam Boozer could make the most sense for the Pacers, much like he could for the Warriors if they were fortunate enough to see their 2% chance at the top pick deliver.

The Dybantsa debate could also be had with the Atlanta Hawks , who have two chances to jump into the No. 1 spot via the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans. Would the Hawks take Dybantsa over Darryn Peterson or someone else since they already have Jalen Johnson , Dyson Daniels , Zaccharie Risacher , and Jonathan Kuminga on the wing?

Unless you are a fan of them, nobody wants to see the Oklahoma City Thunder win the lottery via the LA Clippers' pick near the end. Should Sam Presti's magic work again, would the Thunder want Dybantsa, or would they look elsewhere?

There are certainly scenarios where Dybantsa is 100% locked in to be the No. 1 pick, but there are also scenarios, as presented, where teams would seriously weigh their options. Not to mention, landing the top pick and the rights to take Dybantsa opens the door for plenty of trade discussions, especially if a team like the Thunder, Warriors, or Heat pulls off a miracle and wins the lottery.

Biggest risers & fallers in lottery simulations

At the end of the day, the data from 100 simulations shown in the charts above doesn't really mean anything. You could run these simulations again 100 times and receive data that may look completely different.

Although this is essentially just a mock draft lottery conducted 100 times, it's certainly notable to see just how volatile this process can be and how each team differs from one another with their respective odds.

Take the Wizards, for example, and their 14% chances at landing the top pick. Just because Washington shares the best odds with Brooklyn and Indiana doesn't mean it will automatically receive a top-three pick, and that was clearly shown by the fact that it finished with the fourth-most appearances with the No. 4 pick and the most appearances with the No. 5 pick.

In terms of the biggest risers in the simulation, the Grizzlies outperformed their 37.2% chance to land a top-four pick by appearing inside the top four 40% of the time. Another riser throughout the simulations was Oklahoma City, which finished inside the top four 10 different times compared to the real 7.2% odds at a top-four pick.

The Mavericks also outperformed their projected No. 8 overall pick, as the average from the 100 simulations put them at 7.04 overall, meaning they essentially jumped up a whole spot in the lottery projections. This means that based on the simulation, the expectations were that the Mavs would move into the top four since moving up one spot would insinuate that one of their combinations was chosen.

As for those who were not as lucky, we have to start at the top with the Wizards, Pacers, and Nets. These three teams have the best odds for the No. 1 pick, yet only Washington outperformed the real 14% odds.

More combinations don't necessarily always equate to landing a higher pick in the NBA Draft, and that is what the lottery simulation proves. On Sunday, four teams will end up as the ultimate winners ahead of the 2026 NBA Draft. Whether those will be the teams at the top of these charts is yet to be determined.

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