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Gene Frenette: Jaguars' history of drafting first-round receivers has been a complete bust
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- Gene Frenette: Jaguars' history of drafting first-round receivers has been a complete bust
When it's time for the Jacksonville Jaguars to make their first-round NFL draft pick at No. 17 , even if they trade up or down, I have three words of advice for general manager Trent Baalke should he opt for a wide receiver:
Hold your breath.
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No matter how long the Jaguars have waited for the reincarnation of Jimmy Smith or Keenan McCardell, no receiver has come remotely close to approaching their numbers.
For reasons that cannot be properly explained, three different Jaguars' front-office czars — Tom Coughlin, James "Shack" Harris and Gene Smith — have gone the receiver route in the first round and ended up laboring to remove all the collective egg off their faces.
Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke talks with reporters on Thursday from the Miller Electric Center.
It's well-documented how the Jaguars' draft history is littered with about a dozen or so first-round busts. At no position has it happened with more frequency than receiver.
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Not just half the time or most of the time either. It's all the time, as in 4-for-4 colossal bust territory. More on that in a second.
With receiver and cornerback being the Jaguars' most glaring needs, and defensive line to a lesser extent, it'd be draft malpractice for Baalke to not at least consider taking a wideout this year with the team's first selection.
With Calvin Ridley now a Tennessee Titan , and even signing Gabe Davis in free agency , the Jaguars could use another receiver target for Trevor Lawrence besides Christian Kirk and Zay Jones .
A lot depends on what remains on the board when it's time for the Jaguars to pick, be it at 17 or wherever, plus the value Baalke and his scouting department has assigned to potentially a half-dozen viable options.
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Not that draft history should matter much because Baalke has repeatedly emphasized the importance of a team trusting its value board. Still, it doesn't mean Jaguars' fans won't be a tad bit wary if that first-round pick turns out to be a receiver.
That's because they know all too well how those previous choices panned out. Each turned into a real-life franchise nightmare.
Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Justin Blackmon (14), the No. 5 overall draft pick in 2012, had a promising rookie season, but his career quickly flamed out in Year 2 with violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy and he never played in the NFL again.
Jaguars' not-so-Fab Four
Whether selected in the top-10, middle or back end of the first round, the names R. Jay Soward (2000), Reggie Williams (2004), Matt Jones (2005) and Justin Blackmon (2012) are connected for the wrong reasons.
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The only four receivers the Jaguars have taken in the first round of 29 drafts never got to a second contract in Jacksonville or anywhere else.
All of them flamed out for self-destructive reasons, with three getting suspended for repeated violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. Though Williams was never suspended, he did sabotage his career after being arrested three times following the 2008 season for drug or alcohol-related offenses.
Jacksonville Jaguars' receiver Matt Jones (18), seen here trying to hold on to a pass in a 28-20 AFC Divisional playoff loss to the New England Patriots in the 2007 postseason, lasted four years before offseason arrests the following year ended his NFL career.
Once they exited the Jaguars, none of them ever played one NFL regular-season down and only two resurfaced professionally elsewhere. Williams played a few games for the Sacramento Mountain Lions in 2011, while Jones suited up in the 2010 preseason for the Cincinnati Bengals before getting released.
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Soward, thought to be the missing piece for a Super Bowl run in 2000, was probably the most immature first-round pick in team history. He was done after one season.
Blackmon, a two-time Biletnikoff award winner and No. 5 overall pick, had alcohol-related issues dating back to college at Oklahoma State, but the Jaguars' background checks were not thorough enough.
After Blackmon's promising rookie season, which included a 7-catch, 236-yard game against the Houston Texans , he lasted just four games in 2013 and his career was over.
Jacksonville Jaguars receiver R. Jay Soward (81), seen here walking to the practice field in 2001, was supposed to be the missing piece to a Super Bowl run, but self-destructed his way out of the NFL in less than two years.
Collectively, the Jaguars' not-so-fab Four accounted for 462 catches, 4,909 yards, 40 TDs and ten 100-yard games in a combined 166 games.
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Here's the alarming part about those numbers when stacked up against other Jaguars' receivers taken in later rounds. The team's four second-round WR picks — Laviska Shenault (2020), DJ Chark Jr. (2018), Marqise Lee (2014) and Allen Robinson (2014) — eclipsed all those totals with 644 catches, 8,283 yards, 50 TDs and 14 100-yard games.
Remarkably, four of the top six fourth-round receivers in Jaguars' history — Ernest Wilford (2004), Mike Thomas (2009), Cecil Shorts (2011) and Dede Westbrook (2017) — also surpassed the combined totals of those first-rounders with 650 receptions, 7,951 yards, 41 TDs and 12 100-yard games.
The odds are incredibly long that any NFL team could have a group of four fourth-round receivers combine to finish with more productive careers than its four first-rounders. Somehow, that happened to the Jaguars.
It only makes the wound cut deeper when you look at the first two first-round receivers taken by the AFC South rivals Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts during the Jaguars' existence. That would be Andre Johnson , DeAndre Hopkins , Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne — two Hall of Famers, another flirting with the HOF and a five-time Pro Bowler still playing.
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Here's the question for the Jaguars in the 2024 draft: will they defy history and pull the trigger anyway on a receiver in the first round?
CB versus WR dilemma
Whether Baalke stays in the 17th spot, or decides to trade up/down, the Jaguars' massive need at cornerback and receiver is undeniable.
It's a pretty good bet, though not a certainty, that Baalke will draft one of those two positions because odds favor two or three prospects being available there at the midway point of the first round.
According to The Athletic's Dane Brugler, who publishes a detailed draft synopsis ("The Beast") of nearly 400 draft prospects and listing hundreds more priority free agents, the Jaguars would almost certainly have to trade up to acquire his top three receivers (Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze ), as well as cornerbacks Terrion Arnold (Alabama) and Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo).
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It's possible one drops to 17, but the tricky part is what Baalke does if all are off the board and the Jaguars remain in the 17th slot.
Does he look at a defensive lineman like Texas' Byron Murphy or an edge rusher with greater value, take LSU receiver Brian Thomas if he's available, or turn to later first-round cornerback options Nate Wiggins (Clemson) and Cooper DeJean (Iowa)?
Another possibility is trading down, still get a corner or receiver with good value, then wait until the No. 48 pick in the second round to fill the other position.
Let's say the Jaguars fill a cornerback need opposite Tyson Campbell in the first round. That means a slew of second-round projected receivers could be available, especially if Baalke decides at that point to trade up when the price tag isn't as steep.
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Imagine the Jaguars moving up from No. 48 to 40, which could allow them to take a big-bodied receiver like Florida State's Keon Coleman (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) or the Michigan speedster Roman Wilson (4.39 in the 40). Perhaps they stay put at 48 and grab Florida's Ricky Pearsall , who has the best catch-drop ratio (29-1) of any receiver prospect over the last three years.
There's so many ways the Jaguars could go in the first two rounds, but it'd be hard to pass up bolstering the depth at cornerback and receiver.
Baalke is never one to second-guess any draft pick once he commits to that selection, even if his choice struggles to make an impact early. Or in the case of center Luke Fortner (2022 third-round pick), compels the GM to sign a free agent in Mitch Morse to take his job.
If the Jaguars take a receiver with their first-round draft pick, Baalke will do what all GMs do: sing the player's praises and talk about how the team expects him to make an immediate impact.
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But given all the previous strikeouts, you can understand if Jaguars' fans hold their collective breath.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com : (904) 359-4540
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Will GM Trent Baalke defy Jaguars' history with first-round WR? | Frenette
