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Gene Frenette: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars must find right terms for both sides on new contract
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- Gene Frenette: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars must find right terms for both sides on new contract
When the Jacksonville Jaguars' Josh Allen cashed in the equivalent of an NFL lotto ticket with a five-year, $141.25 million contract extension in April, it was made possible by the veteran pass-rusher coming off a career-high season of 17.5 sacks.
Allen hit the financial mother lode with a lights-out performance at the perfect time.
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Trevor Lawrence , on the other hand, will not necessarily need that kind of breakthrough year in 2024 to become among the richest men in pro football.
Trevor Lawrence is the Jacksonville Jaguars' long-term answer at quarterback, so it's probably better to sign him to a long-term extension now than waiting until next year, if the price is right.
Lawrence is the beneficiary of being an NFL quarterback on a team that already believes he's the long-term answer at the highest-paid position. What that means is his monster payday has the same feel of inevitability as when the Jaguars made him the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2021.
True to his custom, Lawrence had a diplomatic response Monday when asked about the ongoing contract talks.
"I'm aware of what's going on, but I try to keep focus on doing my job out here," said Lawrence. "I have full belief that'll take care of itself. It's not something I need to worry about. That's why I pay people and hire people to do that for me."
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Whether the Jaguars sign Lawrence to an extension before this season or wait until next year, he's likely going to join an exclusive cast of quarterbacks making $50 million-plus in annual salary.
And if the Jaguars and Trevor's agent, Jay Courie, don't come to an agreement until next offseason, circumstances like Jacksonville winning or getting to the Super Bowl could push Trevor into the $60 million club.
A committed marriage
Either way, unless Lawrence suffers a God-forbidden, catastrophic injury to drastically alter the negotiating process, he's going to need a Brinks truck or two just to haul off a lucrative signing bonus.
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Despite the Jaguars waiting for Lawrence to reach his full potential — showing both flashes of brilliance and being more turnover-prone than desired in his first three NFL seasons — the truth is Jacksonville and No. 16 are married to each other for the foreseeable future.
Coming off rare back-to-back winning seasons, even with the disappointment of slumping to a 9-8 finish last year and losing the AFC South title, the Jaguars have put together a better roster for Lawrence to take his biggest career step.
With the 24-year-old QB about to start his third year in Doug Pederson's system, the Jaguars appear ready to roll the dice on giving Lawrence a monster payday in anticipation that he will deliver results worthy of it.
Sure, it's a gamble if the Jaguars make him among the five highest-paid players in the NFL. However, GM Trent Baalke and the organization also know the risk of paying him now instead of later might be a cheaper option in the long run.
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One thing isn't changing: the price of a dependable quarterback keeps going up at an astounding rate.
Jacksonville Jaguars' general manager Trent Baalke was fired Wednesday by owner Shad Khan, not coincidentally coming after two prospective head coaching candidates decided not to return for a second interview.
Finding right QB price
Everything is timed up for Lawrence to cash in big, including an NFL salary cap ballooning to $255.4 million, a $30.6 million jump that represents the largest increase since free agency began in 1993.
Whenever Lawrence's extension gets done, you can bet the Jaguars will be paying as much attention to the percentage of salary cap it eats up, as opposed to his average annual salary.
The Detroit Lions ' Jared Goff , another No. 1 draft pick (2016) and a three-time Pro Bowler, is probably the best barometer to gauge what Trevor might command with his extension.
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Goff signed a four-year, $212 million contract ($170 million guaranteed) three weeks ago, which amounts to 20.75 percent of the NFL salary cap. Teams who have QBs not named Patrick Mahomes are going to be leery of going much above that percentage.
It's hard to imagine the Jaguars going a penny over Goff's $53 million APY salary, especially considering the 29-year-old Lion has produced at a consistently higher level than Lawrence by every pertinent statistic.
Of the five quarterbacks now making over $50 million per year — with the Kansas City Chiefs ' Mahomes technically still at $45 million — all of them have superior numbers in terms of TD-interception ratio, QB rating, won-loss record.
Throw in the fact Lawrence has a league-high 21 lost fumbles in three seasons, and more turnovers (60) than anybody besides the Washington Commanders ' Sam Howell and the Buffalo Bills ' Josh Allen over that span, it gives credence to the argument the Jaguars should wait until 2025 before making him generationally wealthy.
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The conundrum about that is the Jaguars steadfastly believe Lawrence will shed his turnover-prone rep and have a career breakthrough in 2024.
When judging their quarterback, Baalke and Pederson don't hold his disastrous rookie season against him. Under the misguided leadership of Urban Meyer in 2021, it's doubtful anybody in Lawrence's position could have overcome the coach's lack of readiness for the NFL.
All those considerations make for a tricky negotiating process. How do the Jaguars balance their belief in Trevor's potential with a resume that doesn't add up to a $200 million-plus contract extension?
The truth is in today's NFL, the first usually trumps the second. The Jaguars know they don't have a better option than Lawrence on the horizon. He's their guy now, next year, and likely far beyond.
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For salary cap purposes, it's to their advantage to get an extension done sooner than later to spread a massive signing bonus over the next five years. It's a question of agreeing on a comfortable price for both sides.
Time for Trevor to deliver
With or without a contract extension getting done in the coming months, this upcoming season is undoubtedly the most pressurized of Trevor's career because there are no excuses for him not to significantly elevate his game.
Most quarterbacks who experience long-term success in the NFL are either showing signs of greatness by their fourth season or certainly not having massive ball-security issues.
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It's impossible to look at where Lawrence is in his development and not think it's time for him to step off the turnover train, especially in big moments.
The Jaguars' QB can't have a league-high 10 turnovers on third down, via TruMedia, like he did in 2023. That ghost fumble so pivotal in the Baltimore Ravens ' loss, which turned a potential 3-3 tie or 7-3 lead into a 10-0 deficit, can't ever happen again.
Lawrence must have a better understanding of when to attempt fitting balls into tight windows and when to make checkdown throws.
He acknowledges having a "chip on his shoulder" about the team going 1-5 to end last season and missing the playoffs. That distasteful memory serves as motivational fuel for everyone in the organization who experienced it.
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But whatever Lawrence's shortcomings or surrounding cast, he's still talented enough and young enough that at least half the NFL teams would trade their starting quarterback for him right now.
"He's only going into his fourth year, which still blows my mind, and he's already been through so much," said tight end Evan Engram . "I think adversity is the best character-builder in this world. We've all faced it. We had a good bit of it last year.
"I think it's definitely lit a fire under our butts for us all to come together and help him, whatever we got to do to win."
Given the Jaguars' heavy off-season investment in free agency, the NFL Draft, a sturdier offensive line and what appears to be a dynamic hire in defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, this is the most Trevor-friendly environment of his career.
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It doesn't matter how much tougher the AFC South looks. It doesn't matter who starts on the offensive line in Week 1. It doesn't matter whether Pederson takes back play-calling from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.
This is Trevor Lawrence's team. The Jaguars are going to pay him like an elite quarterback, so the expectation should be that No. 16 rises to that level.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com : (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars keeping salary cap impact in mind on Trevor Lawrence contract
