No. 25 Texas Tech basketball looks to avoid skid with No. 20 BYU in town: Scouting report, predictions

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No. 25 Texas Tech basketball looks to avoid skid with No. 20 BYU in town: Scouting report, predictions

Nathan Giese, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal · Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Sat, Jan 20, 2024 ·

4 min read

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Three days after taking on one of the top teams in the country in most advanced metrics in the sport, the Texas Tech basketball team is set to do it again.

Coming off a 77-54 loss to fifth-ranked Houston on the road , the No. 25 Red Raiders (14-3, 3-1) return to the friendly confines of United Supermarkets Arena to square off with the 20th-ranked BYU Cougars on Saturday at 5 p.m. The first Cougars of the week limited the Texas Tech offense and pounded away at the defense with physicality on the road in Houston .

Grant McCasland expects a similar challenge against the West Coast Cougars , though for different reasons.

"They've got a great basketball team," McCasland said of BYU. "They're tough to defend. They cause a lot of problems because they play differently than what we've faced and a lot of teams we've faced."

Computers have loved what they've seen from BYU (14-3, 2-2) this season. KenPom has Mark Pope's squad 14th and eighth in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. Wednesday's opponent, Houston, ranks 12th and first in those categories.

More: 'I love it': Texas Tech basketball, Houston coaches know the Big 12 is anything but easy

One big difference between the two teams in 3-point shooting. Houston made its living inside the paint, outscoring Texas Tech 40-8 in the romp. BYU lives life dangerously, relying on outside shots to be one of the top scoring teams in the country — the Cougars are ninth in the nation, averaging 85.7 points per game.

Through Thursday, BYU is second in the nation in 3-point makes per game at 12.4, a stat McCasland called "wild" when previewing Saturday's contest.

The Cougars have a 37% success rate from the outside and 51% of their total shots have been beyond the arc. For comparison, 41% of Texas Tech's shots have been 3s.

"It's a unique perspective," McCasland said. "They do shoot them early. They'll shoot them off early handoffs. They'll shoot them off early ball screens. They'll screen away and shoot them quickly. They're just an aggressive team."

McCasland noted that there's nobody the Red Raiders can view as not being a threat to shoot from the outside.

"Definitely, you've got to be on edge," McCasland said. "You've got to be prepared to get after it the entire game."

Trends to watch

BYU has been dealt injuries over the last few weeks. This includes the loss of guard Dawson Baker, who will miss the rest of the year with a foot injury. Sharpshooter Trevin Knell (47% from 3, 13.1 points per game) and last year's leading scorer Fousseyni Traore each missed the Cougars' win over Iowa State on Tuesday.

In their absence, Spencer Johnson had a career-high 28 points to go with nine rebounds and five assists against the Cyclones. Guard Jaxson Robinson, a 38.9% shooter from 3, leads the team in scoring at 14.3 points per game. Johnson and Noah Waterman (10.5 points) are the lone Cougars to have started all 17 games.

Through Thursday's games, BYU is second in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.95) and 12th in fastbreak points per game (16.47).

More: Texas Tech basketball's winning streak snapped by Houston, Jamal Shead: 3 takeaways

Key statistic

Texas Tech has been outrebounded in three of its first four Big 12 games, the lone victory in this category coming against Oklahoma State by one. The Cougars are 10th in the nation and second in the conference in rebound margin, grabbing 10 more boards per game than their opponents.

Score prediction: Texas Tech 77, BYU 74

Bottom line:The Red Raiders would be best served not going into back-to-back road games at Oklahoma and TCU coming off off back-to-back losses.

Big 12 Men's Basketball

No. 20 BYU at No. 25 Texas Tech

When:Saturday, 5 p.m.

Where:United Supermarkets Arena

TV:ESPN2

Records:BYU 14-3, 2-2; Texas Tech 14-3, 3-1

Notable:Texas Tech is 70-11 as a ranked team playing at home against an fellow ranked team. Tech and BYU last played each other on Dec. 22, 1995 when the Red Raiders won 81-71.