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How OKC Thunder schedule sets up for Western Conference's No. 1 seed in NBA Playoffs
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- How OKC Thunder schedule sets up for Western Conference's No. 1 seed in NBA Playoffs
After taking a break for All-Star weekend in Indianapolis , the final third of the NBA season will tip off next Thursday.
With two months to play, the top-four seeds in the West are all but solidified. The Timberwolves (38-16), Thunder (37-17), Clippers (35-17) and Nuggets (36-18) are all within two games of each other. The fifth-place Pelicans and Suns are four games out of fourth place.
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Go ahead and pencil in the Celtics (42-12) as the No. 1 seed in the East as we wait to see who wins the West.
The Thunder officially entered the All-Star Break after beating the Magic in Orlando on Tuesday night . Before things get rolling again, I thought it would be a fun exercise to predict the Thunder's final record to get a better idea of where OKC might finish in the West.
I separated OKC's 28 remaining games by category: slam dunks, road games against teams above .500, signature home games and the leftovers.
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Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) jumps to pass past Kings guard Malik Monk (0) in the second quarter Sunday at Paycom Center.
Slam dunks: 6-1.
The Thunder is likely to be a double-digit favorite in all of these. Losing any of them would be a "bad loss," but it's the NBA. Bad losses happen.
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vs. Washington , Feb. 23; at San Antonio , Feb. 29; at Portland , March 6; vs. Memphis , March 10; at Memphis, March 16; at Charlotte, April 7; vs. San Antonio, April 10
Road games against teams above .500: 3-5.
Any of these would count as a quality win. Breaking even in these would be a terrific outcome.
at Phoenix, March 3; at LA Lakers , March 4; at Milwaukee , March 24; at New Orleans , March 26; at New York, March 31; at Philadelphia , April 2; at Boston , April 3; at Indiana , April 5
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Coach Mark Daigneault and the Thunder are 21-6 at Paycom Center this season.
Signature home games: 1-1.
The Thunder is 21-6 at Paycom Center. You expect OKC to win every home game, but these two are especially tough.
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vs. LA Clippers, Feb. 22; vs. Milwaukee April 12
The leftovers: 8-3.
All games the Thunder should win and will likely be favored in. Five of these 11 are against Houston and Dallas .
at Houston, Feb. 25; vs. Houston, Feb. 27; vs. Miami , March 8; vs. Indiana, March 12; vs. Dallas, March 14; vs. Utah, March 20; at Toronto , March 22; vs. Houston, March 27; vs. Phoenix, March 29; vs. Sacramento , April 9; vs. Dallas, April 14
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OK, so I have the Thunder going 18-10 after the All-Star break. That's a .642 winning percentage, a bit down from the team's .679 rate thus far.
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Using the combined winning percentage of its remaining opponents, the Thunder (.485), Nuggets (.485) and Timberwolves (.483) all have a similar strength of schedule remaining. The Clippers (.518) have the toughest remaining schedule of the contending quartet.
I have the Thunder finishing 55-27. Given my track record of chronically underrating this squad, OKC might very well win 60 games.
The Thunder's current over/under win total is 55.5, the same total of the Clippers and Nuggets, per FanDuel . The Timberwolves' total is 56.5, making Minnesota the favorite to get the No. 1 seed with the oddsmakers shrugging on how to sort two through four.
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Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) and guard Luguentz Dort (5) celebrate a 3-point basket by Aleksej Pokusevski (17) during the second half of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charolette Hornets at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Friday, Feb. 2, 2024.
ESPN's projections have it finishing this way, decimals and all …
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No. 1: Minnesota (56.7-25.3)
No. 2: LA Clippers (55.3-26.7)
No. 3: Oklahoma City (54.5-27.5)
No. 4: Denver (52-30)
Basketball Reference's projections are higher on the Thunder …
No. 1: Minnesota (57.2-24.8)
No. 2: Oklahoma City (55.9-26.1)
No. 3: LA Clippers (53.9-28.1)
No. 4: Denver (53.2-28.8)
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As a No. 3 seed in ESPN's projections, the Thunder would host the No. 6 seed Suns in the first round. As the No. 2 seed in Basketball Reference's projections, the Thunder would face the winner of the No. 7/No. 8 play-in game between the Suns and Kings.
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ESPN gives the Thunder a 6.7% chance of making the NBA Finals and a 1.9% chance of winning the Finals. In the West, the Clippers, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Mavericks and Warriors all have better championship odds, according to ESPN .
Basketball Reference, once again, is much more bullish on the Thunder, giving OKC a 32% chance of making the NBA Finals and a 15.5% chance of winning the Finals. Boston, according to Basketball Reference , is the only team with better championship odds.
I'm slightly higher on the Thunder than ESPN's model but I'm much lower on OKC than Basketball Reference's, which gives the Nuggets a measly 2.3% chance of repeating as NBA champions. Something is way out of whack there.
The Nuggets are still my pick to win the West, but as I said last month, I like the Thunder's chances to enter the playoffs with the No. 1 seed .
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Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com . Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com .
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder schedule sets up for No. 1 seed in NBA Western Conference
