Bettors prefer Seahawks, but recent history favors Super Bowl underdogs
Yahoo Sports Daily hosts Caroline Fenton and Jason Fitz are joined by senior sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes to preview Super Bowl LX, explain how the public is betting and discuss why recent history favors the New England Patriots, not the Seattle Seahawks. Watch the full episode of Yahoo Sports Daily on YouTube or YahooSports.TV .
Video Transcript
It's been pretty much the same story.
Public on the Seahawks is what we've seen, about 60% of bets, 65% of the money.
We did see a big bet at BetMGM come in, $325,000 on the Patriots plus four and a half, and even despite that wager, they still have more money on the Seahawks.
So the public is on the Seahawks.
We kind of expect they probably continue, will continue to be, but it is important to note a couple things.
One, we're probably, like, 10 to 20% of the overall handle that we'll see for the Super Bowl, so, so much money is coming in today, Friday, Saturday, and especially Sunday.
And then the second is we have seen the line mostly at four and a half.
There's a couple fives in Vegas.
If the line's gonna move, I think it'll go up to five, but we have seen it at a couple Vegas sports books at five, and it's kind of stayed there for a couple days, which generally means the sharps aren't taking that plus five, and so we'll see if that- we'll see if books put that five out there.
I think, though, if it goes anywhere, it probably goes towards five, five and a half, as opposed to down to four.
You mention it, Seattle, a four-and-a-half-point favorite, which four and a half points, not massive, but substantial.
Yep.
If we want to look at some historical context, how have four-and-a-half-point favorites in the Super Bowl fared in recent history?
Yeah, this was an odd one looking this up, 'cause you kind of have your s- oh, like, you figure the favorites are generally gonna win and cover.
The last 25 years, actually, we've had 11 games here where a favorite of at least four and a half points in the Super Bowl, underdogs 10 and 1 against the spread in the last 25 years, with six- Wow!
... outright wins, so- Wow ... probably more than you would expect.
The only game, I believe, in the last 15 years where the favorite won but didn't cover was that Rams beating the Bengals.
I think it was a four-and-a-half-point favorite for the Rams.
The Bengals, only they covered, they lost by three, but the Rams won the game, so that was the only one where the favorite won necessarily and didn't cover.
So in general as well, with Super Bowl 60, we're talking about those Roman numerals, 59 previous Super Bowls, the spread basically hasn't mattered as much.
It's 50, seven, and two, so basically, if you're picking the winner, they're probably going to cover.
So just some other trends to think about as well.
I mean, the joke is always, "How does Vegas always get it right?"
Why does Vegas get the Super Bowl so weirdly off on that, then?
It's a, a very good question.
Also, a small-ish sample size, right?
Only 50, 60 games, but yeah, it's, it's interesting, and look, every game's different.
I think it's a little interesting of a trend, 'cause you do have that four and a half points, right?
It's on a neutral field, no home field advantage, all that, but I, I can't explain that one.
I, I only report the trends.
