Which home underdog has the best chance at winning on Wild Card Weekend?
Yahoo Sports Daily hosts Caroline Fenton and Jason Fitz are joined by senior sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes to preview the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers . Watch the full episode of Yahoo Sports Daily on YouTube or YahooSports.TV .
Video Transcript
We've got two games where we have one-point road favorites.
The Packers are favored at the Bears; the Bills are favored at the Jags.
So, which of the home underdogs in that situation do you think has a better chance of Winning and defending their home field?
Yeah, this is, Uh, you guys were talking about the Bears-Packers before.
I think this is by the slimmest of margins.
I will go with the Jaguars.
At some books, this line has actually moved to pick, so open Bills minus 1.5, Bills minus 1, it is a pick at some books.
We could certainly see the favorite flip and The Jaguars are favored.
I think this just comes down to a few things.
The first is, the Jaguars have that "nobody believes in us" mentality.
Even though they won their division, right?
They've won eight straight.
They've also covered eight straight games, and they've played some bad teams.
But they've also beaten some really good teams.
They went into Denver and won going away in that game.
So, I feel like they know that they can get it done.
They've been playing well for a couple months, whereas the Bills, This is also a little of an unfamiliar circumstance, right?
They're used to winning the AFC East, playing their first game at home.
Obviously, eventually having to play Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow.
They don't have those potential obstacles in their way, but it is a good Jaguars team, and ultimately the thing that, Where I think this game will be won: the Bills.
James Cook led the league in rushing.
They have that really good rushing attack, historically good offensive line.
The Jaguars allow the least amount of yards rushing per game.
They didn't allow any rusher to rush for more than 75 yards in a game this season.
So, can the Bills run the ball, run the ball against a really stout Jaguars defense?
That's going to be the question.
And then Josh Allen and, You know, he's had the foot injury, he's been a little banged up.
The Bills also have a lot, a laundry list of injuries.
So, who actually is out on the field, I think, will be big in that.
The Packers-Bears, to me, is like the definition of a toss-up.
You know, the Packers limped into the postseason; they lost four straight games.
Defense doesn't look the same without Micah Parsons, but you kind of feel like they're a better team than the Bears overall, as well as how the Bears have played.
And like Caroline is saying, they've played in the cold...
They play in cold weather.
That stadium's going to be rocking.
But they, they basically controlled the last game in Chicago until the fourth quarter on.
Onside kick and ended up losing the game.
So, they know that they can beat that team even at the diminished Packers team, right?
Without Tucker Kraft, Without Micah Parsons, so that's just going to be, Again, can they stop the run?
I think Green Bay is 25th at stopping the Run, the Bears have the best rushing offense in the league.
And if it's cold, windy, and snowy, that might be the game.
Can Green Bay stop the Bears' rushing attack, especially if the Packers can't throw?
The ball?
