Take 'big swings' when betting receiving TD leader
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick analyze why they are interested in taking "big swings" to lead the NFL in receiving TDs, seeing upside with Chris Olave, Emeka Egbuka, among others.
Video Transcript
Okay, Drew, let's talk regular season receiving touchdowns leader market.
Jamar Chase, the favorite at plus 650.
Davante Adams, who led the NFL last season, is seven to one.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, seven to one, always gets a lot of targets in the end red zone, despite being, primarily out of the slot so often.
Are there any favorites here that you like or anyone further down the board?
Well, I think we actually have to take on the top of the board here for a couple reasons.
Number one, Davante Adams' target share inside the 10 last year was truly absurd.
He got 23 targets, that was two more than anyone else, and then there is a huge gap, after Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was number two.
He only converted 23 of his inside the 10 targets into 11 touchdowns, so he underperformed, if anything.
And that said, every note and nugget I'm getting from Rams camp so far says that the red zone approach is gonna be a little bit different in terms of how things are distributed this year.
So I'm against Adams at the top of the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown finds himself in a new system, which I think is gonna affect his, the number of opportunities he gets.
Trey McBride, who had 32 targets in the red zone last year, is in a new system as well, and I think will have to share some of the load with the other receiving options in Arizona.
So we are now really looking down the board, in my opinion, and taking some swings on some huge prices.
I think the, kind of two breakout stories that I was following towards the end of the season last year that I think are gonna portend huge things in terms of opportunity, and success this year were the breakout of Jamison Williams as one of the premier targets, both in terms of creating separation and at the catch point.
I think his number is way, way, way, way, way, behind what he had produced in terms of, you know, just outstanding recep-- you know, receiving, production at the end of 2025.
And then similarly, Chris Olave.
When Tyler Shuck took over, it was just a, a match made in heaven in terms of Olave and Shuck as far as a, you know, a target, magnet.
He, had six of his nine receiving touchdowns once Shuck took over, including, a run at the end of the season where he had at least one touchdown in his last three games.
So for me, I'm gonna swing for big prices.
I'm gonna look at Jamison Williams and Chris Olave.
Yep, I like it.
The two big swings that I would take, swell and long shots.
One, Mike Evans is 30 to one.
He's been a red zone monster his entire career.
He has put up double-digit touchdowns multiple on multiple occasions, and I think a new system creates some variance.
He could absolutely be Brock Purdy's top target, in the red zone.
And then the other one, Emeka Egbuka is 75 to 1.
He could be the alpha in this Tampa Bay offense.
He had five touchdowns in his first five games last season before, getting a little banged up, and also Baker Mayfield, was also injured in the second half of the season.
So I think a lot of upside with Egbuka, and with Mike Evans.
