Cubs Have Major Concerns About Daniel Palencia's Return
Daniel Palencia's rehab struggles have continued to raise questions about whether the Cubs can rely on their closer when he returns from the injured list.
Video Transcript
The Chicago Cubs are supposed to be getting help back on the pitching staff from injury, but there is a big difference right now between the confidence the Cubs have in Edward Cabrera versus Daniel Palencia.
Cabrera's pitching speaks for itself.
He's been dominant, in most of his rehab, especially his last outing in Double-A Knoxville.
He seems to be on the cusp of returning and, contributing to the Cubs in some capacity.
But Palencia's has been revealing for all the wrong reasons, and it doesn't sound like the Cubs have a ton of faith in him right now to be the same guy he was before the injury.
Back in June, Palencia landed on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, a scary injury on its own, but even more concerning with his recent performances while rehabbing.
On Tuesday in Knoxville, Daniel Palencia did just two-thirds of an inning, allowing four earned runs, three walks, and a hit by pitch.
All of them came around to score.
Across three outings, Palencia's ERA on this rehab assignment is nineteen twenty-nine.
Fifteen batters faced, fifty-five pitches thrown.
More balls than strikes.
The Cubs aren't really beating around the bush when it comes to Palencia either.
Craig Counsell said, "We just gotta keep getting him out there," and said he was not sharp, has not been sharp the last couple of times out.
The control is a valid concern because Palencia's success has almost directly been linked to his control through the years.
In twenty twenty-four, when he had a six point one four ERA in ten MLB appearances, it was large in part due to the seventeen point four percent walk rate.
When he got that number down to seven point four percent in twenty twenty-five, he was way more effective.
Twenty-two saves, t- two point nine one ERA out of the Cubs' bullpen.
Twenty twenty-six so far, another respectable eight point five percent walk rate for Palencia has led to success, before he landed on the IL with a two seventy ERA.
But now, the Cubs don't really have an established closer.
Jacob Webb with eight saves is the team leader.
Five of those have come since the start of July.
Caleb Thielbar, Trent Thornton, Palencia all tied for second on the team with three.
And needless to say, it is pretty rare for a team to win the World Series without an established closer.
The twenty twenty-four Dodgers did it when Evan Phillips was their team leader with eighteen.
But go back fifty years, there are very few exceptions of teams that don't have a closer with twenty or more saves that actually go on to win the World Series.
So having Palencia back in the fold would ease the concerns about those high leverage relief roles and consistency in the roles for the Cubs' bullpen.
But an elbow injury preceding control issues in the minor leagues makes it pretty hard to know what Palencia will bring to the table if he ever does come back this year.
So I suppose there are two sides to every coin.
Edward Cabrera, you see a pitcher who's going to help this rotation and bullpen, just by being there to preserve arms when he bounces back, and a guy who could be very good.
When you look at Palencia, I see a reliever who doesn't look like his old self and doesn't seem to have the control that he so heavily and often relies on.
