Exploring High Totals & Spreads in Oklahoma vs UTEP Game
Joe Raineri and Tom Vecchio analyze tonight's Oklahoma vs. UTEP battle. The Over/Under is 50.5; the spread is 40.5. Past trends suggest betting on the over.
Video Transcript
Oklahoma at home taking on UTEP with a 50 and a half total.
L- look at the total, yeah.
Look at this- Yeah.
Give me that spread again.
What's the spread?
40 and a half, and we're looking at a 50 and a half total.
And what is the total?
They're gonna be- 50 it's crazy.
50 and a half.
Half.
Insane work.
So actually I have a, a pretty good stat that, a good friend of mine, Ralph Michaels over at Wager Talk had given me.
Over the last five years, Tom, when you have a game that is in the spread of 35 points or more, and they're within two touchdowns of the actual total, and in this case you're telling me I don't even think we're 10 points apart, right?
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
22 and a half and 51, so really a nine-point difference.
Over 66% to the over in those games.
So- Okay when you have those kinds of monster favorites, the idea that the other team won't score, not, not the case.
Those games go over.
So 51, 51 and a half, I would only look to go to the over for the same reason, Tom.
There is z- zero I believe OU plays Michigan next week.
What incentive do they have being up 38 to nothing at the break to go into the second half and play anybody of any value whatsoever?
They don't.
They'll likely cover it, but you are likely getting more than 51 and a half points here.
At least over the last five years, 66, percent plus to the over.
That's good enough for me 'cause I, I think it makes total sense too.
Okay.
So i- it's important to know what you're saying.
So when the total is, you said 50 or higher for this, or 45 or higher?
No, no, when the spreads are 35 plus or more- The spreads are 35- and it's within- Between ten points two touchdowns of the total.
Oh, two t- Okay.
Within two touchdowns of the total.
Got it.
So in this case we have nine, right?
We're, we're off- Well, y- yeah touchdown of nine- We have nine, 10 depending where- point spread to the total you're shopping.
Yes.
Got it.
There you go.
Then that- Okay that's an overplay because you're expec- what is their team total, UTEP, three?
That's a good question.
What's th- Total A six and a half.
It might be six and a half.
Yeah, so yes.
The, the bottom line is overs in these spots, there's no way- It's three and a half your team should be laying 40 p- Yeah.
How much?
Three and a h- Three and a half.
Yeah.
There you go.
So and that's why- Right the overs hit, because the undervaluing of the opposing team in the second half is over the top here.
Yeah, I promise you- OU will be playing guys that don't even have names or numbers on their jersey in the fourth quarter, Tom.
They will not under any circumstances be leaving anybody in a game they are up 48 to nothing on.
Which could very well- So- be the score by the way, by the time we get to the fourth quarter.
It could.
So is this, is this one of the, the, I, I don't wanna say betting system, I don't want to put a name to it, but is this one of the things that you are routinely looking at early season knowing that a lot of these bigger teams are playing non-conference games before we get into like heavy, heavy, conference schedules?
This is usually when you get those kinds of spreads, right?
And occasionally you'll get them down I think right about midway in, in October.
And because these- Yes are teams that are getting paid to come and get the snot beat out of them because we don't have a preseason- Like UMass in college football.
Like UMass.
Exactly it.
The only problem is OU is not going to be one of those teams on upset alert.
And over the last five years, that's the trend, but I like trends like that because they make sense given- Mm-hmm the state of where we're at.
We, I- Okay Same reason why I like betting first halves on big favorites, because I know coming in the second half th- there will be nobody.
Especially, Tom, I mean, look, OU has got Michigan on deck here.
You don't think they're- looking ahead just a little b-.
They are not leaving anybody out on the field in the second half that can jeopardize anything.
No.
And if you're UTEP, really, UTEP, y- you're not gonna score a touchdown, right?
And by the way, a touchdown might be the only thing we need to get this thing over
