NFL Analytics Say the Chiefs Are Better Than You Think
NFL Analytics Say the Chiefs Are Better Than You Think
Video Transcript
Welcome into the Arrowhead Addict podcast.
This is the Intangibles.
My name is Price Carter, and today I have the special privilege of being joined by Aaron Schatz, the father of DV DVOA, the chief analytics officer for FTN.
Both Christian and myself also work for FTN.
We kind of help collect and chart the data that Aaron uses for all those great stats, and Today we're gonna be talking Chiefs, but most of all, we're gonna be talking about the FTN almanac, which is like the bible for the football season.
Aaron, tell us a little bit about the almanac and what all goes into gathering this massive piece of information.
We work on it for the last couple of months.
It's filled with not only the advanced stats, but all the charting that people like you do and advanced stats for charting.
So, you know, if we notice that a team is particularly good running simulated pressures, we're right about that.
Uh, and we've done a lot of work over 22 years, you know, since I started doing analytics about what, uh, helps you, uh, predict teams from year to year.
Obviously, listen, there's a lot of unpredictableness in the NFL.
That's what makes it fun.
If we could predict it perfectly, it wouldn't be fun, but, uh, we've got some methods and we've got some tricks, and, you know, we've had some things from the past that helped tell us about what's gonna happen in the future, and we write about all that with some, uh, film work.
And some jokes, and we put it all in a big book.
You can either get a PDF at FTNfantassy.com/almanac, or if you want a printed version, and you can see I have a bunch of past years up on my shelf here, uh, you can buy that at Amazon by searching for FTN Football Almanac 2026.
Yeah, man, I mean, it's , it's a lot more than just fantasy, right?
Like FTN is associated with fantasy, but it's a lot more than that.
You want to know how much 11 personnel the Chiefs ran, you want to know their DVOA on first downs, their success rate, it's everything.
I've got the Chiefs page memorized already.
It's 163.
So I know I can just type it into the PDF and get to page 163 and look over the Chiefs.
So if you're tired of losing your fantasy league, or you just want to learn more about the game in general, the FTN Almanac is a great place to do that.
And like I said, Christian and myself, we chart every single, we usually get assigned a team.
I cheat, I chart the passing game, Christian charts player personnel packages.
So, we, we kind of help collect all, all that together.
And like I said, Aaron is like the grandfather of the stat DVOA.
He created.
it and you hear it sourced all the time.
I know, uh, we got a nice shout out on, uh, what was that Jimmy Fallon with Tom Brady who was talking about shouted us out on The Tonight Show.
That was pretty amazing, yeah, yeah, that was, that was awesome.
So it's, it's growing and, and all the best people in football read it.
So you gotta check it out as well too.
So Aaron, I'm, I'm obligated here to talk a little Chiefs with you here, and I, I'm interested.
I, I read cover to cover the, the Chiefs part of the Almanac, and I've also looked through several other parts of it.
Um, you know, you guys talked about the Kenneth Walker sign.
The the Chiefs obviously start off free agency with a big bang by signing Kenneth Walker.
The almanac shows that the Chiefs were dead last and rushed to UVA last year, and cite Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, uh, Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, and other notable free agency running backs that have worked out.
How optimistic are you that Walker can lift the Chiefs' offense?
Yeah, listen, as an analytics guy, you know, the basic thought is running backs do not tend to move the meter much.
But the Chiefs' running game was so bad last year that in this case, even though I don't think Walker is like one of the top 5 backs in football, Uh, this is almost the opposite of, you know, only a few backs are so good that they matter.
Uh, it may also be that only a few backs are so bad that they matter, and they happen to be running for the Chiefs last year.
So we keep these stats 2nd-level yards, which are all the yards that come 5 to 10 past the line of scrimmage, and open field yards, which is everything that comes 10 or more past the line of scrimmage.
Last year, the Chiefs were 30th in 2nd-level yards per carry, 32nd.
In open field yards per carry.
And if you look at Seattle, only when Kenneth Walker was running, they would have been top 10 in both.
So, you know, if you get your blocks, you still have to do something once you get into the open field, and Walker is great at that, and last year's running backs for the Chiefs absolutely were not.
Yeah, and it's really kind of crazy, uh, later on in the almanac, you guys go on to praise the Chiefs' interior offensive line and The steps King to Su Maia taken and, and Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, it's kind of crazy cause I think the general consensus amongst the running backs don't matter is like, OK, well, if they have a bad offensive line, they're not able to overcome it, like Ashton Gini or someone like that.
But in this case, the Chiefs running backs were so bad that they weren't able to take advantage of the offensive line.
Right, because they weren't getting anything past what they were initially blocked.
And I do think that the Chiefs have a good offensive line.
I mean, especially in the interior.
Obviously.
You've got questions.
Jalen Moore now taking over at right tackle, but the guy at left tackle is a first-round pick.
We don't know what he's gonna turn into yet, but usually that turns into something good.
So overall, I mean, I think the Chiefs should feel pretty good about where they are on the offensive line.
Yeah, and you know, the, the Kenneth Walker thing is interesting too.
Like if you go and, and look at FTA and you can see the amount of heavy boxes that Seattle faced compared to what the Chiefs face.
Hypothetically, if you're someone who's wanting to buy Kenneth Walker's stock in fantasy, he's going to a much harder from a much harder situation where the Seattle was running the ball out of heavy personnel, to the Chiefs who see some of the lightest boxes in the NFL.
So, definitely a favorable situation there for him.
Yeah, and a better interior offensive line, probably not as good at the tackles, but better on the interior where, you know, Seattle, right, the right guard position is very questionable for them.
So I wanted to ask you this as you have a very analytical stat-based brain.
Is there a stat that's able to quantify how much a poor running game hurts the passing game?
Cause something that it's tough to quantify because like the Chiefs not having a running game, I think it truly has hurt Patrick Mahomes' performance over the last couple of years.
I think the problem there is figuring out where's the chicken and where's the egg.
Right?
It's figuring out when, if, even if you correlate the two things, which is the cause, you don't know which is the cause of the correlation, right?
So, I don't know if there is a specific rushing game stat that you can pick out and go, OK, this is affecting the passing game.
I think the best stat that might do that is the box count.
If teams are playing light boxes against you because they're not afraid of your running game, that is going to hurt your quarterback.
You know, and if teams are paying heavy boxes against you cause they're not afraid of your passing game, that's gonna hurt your running back.
And I think that obviously, we saw that with the Chiefs last year.
You, you're more afraid of Mahomes than you were of the running backs.
It's not rocket science.
Yeah, and I mean, I, I always think back to the Texans and the Chargers game, which were, unfortunately the last thing we saw from Mahomes, but those two defenses just teeing off on the intermediate part of the field where Rashe Rice lives, and I mean Rashe Rice got a concussion against the Chargers, and it's like they just kind of almost knew what was coming, and part of it is, it's like the linebackers are like, yeah, we're, we're not biting on that play action, buddy, we're just gonna keep pedaling.
We do not care.
In fact, we prefer you hand the ball to Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco.
So I, I, I certainly hope Kenneth Walker is explosive enough to take advantage of those.
Yeah, and I think that he is, and he had a ton of broken tackles, and, uh, he, he, he's good, he's good.
He's not, you know, he's not Bejon Robinson, but he's good.
Yeah, and I mean if you're telling yourself a story about why the Chiefs like are gonna be dramatically improved from where they finished last year, obviously it starts with Mahomes' health, but to me the 3, yeah, it starts with luck, not Mahomes' health, yes, because the last couple of games, but if even if you're only comparing the Mahomes Chiefs to this year.
The Chiefs were absurdly lucky two years ago and absurdly unlucky last year, absurdly with the close games and stuff.
They finished the year, I believe, 5th in DVOA or not, didn't finish the year.
I believe they were 5th when Mahomes got hurt.
And, uh, they were not a bad, they were a good team and just had really bad luck.
So that's the first thing to remember as a Chiefs fan, is that the luck is gonna get better this year.
So what I'm hearing is, is that you're not buying into the Denver Broncos as much this year because they kind of were the Chiefs of last year.
They were the best team in close games, yeah, and I see the underlying stats are still good.
It's like the Chiefs of the year before.
The underlying stats were still good, but they weren't 15 and 2 good, and that's what it's like with the Broncos.
The underlying stats are good, but they're not 14 and 3 good.
I, so I, I wanna ask you this about Andy Reid.
Uh, there, you know, there's been a lot of discussion for a long time there.
Andy Reid's just been put up in the, in the upper echelon of play callers.
The Chiefs' offense doesn't look like the best offenses in the NFL.
They run RPO at one of the highest rates with an absurd 84% RPO pass rate, so it's not even an RPO, it's just a PO.
And then they don't play under center, they don't run pure play action from under center almost at all.
How confident are you that Andy Reid still has his fastball, or has the game kind of started to pass him by, or is he getting ahead of it?
Fairly confident that he can still do good things.
I understand that he's not following the current meta of the league, right?
But, you know, not everything has to be a Shanahan McVeigh offense in order to win.
First of all, I'll tell you a dirty little secret.
Even with what the Shanahan and McVeigh offenses do, shotgun plays on the whole are still more efficient than plays under center.
Right?
Play action-wise, under center is the best.
But if you just look at all plays, shotgun, shotgun is still more efficient.
Like that's the reason why the league went to so much shotgun over the last 15 years, right?
So, I don't, I mean, he's doing something different, right?
He's not doing what McVa Shanahan do, but we've seen it work in the past and I think he can work again.
I think the bigger problems in Kansas City are things like the personnel at wide receiver.
And, you know, last year, at least, luck, not necessarily that he's lost his fastball.
Yeah, I'm, I'm interested by your thing about, uh, about shotgun, cause I, I, I wonder a little bit of that is how much, like, for instance, like DVOA or success rate, EPA, those plays, like sometimes, like I think about the quarterback push push, right?
Like it's a high success rate, high uh high success rate play because it's typically only used to like it's used on late downs to convert a new set of downs.
How much of shotgun and its success rate is also kind of built around the fact that like it's 3rd and long and like the team remember DVOA compares 3rd and long plays to other 3rd and long plays, right?
so it takes care of that by comparing everything to the baseline that's based on situation and shotgun is still more efficient.
It's, I, I know given what's going on with McVay Shahan, it doesn't make sense, common sense, but it's still, it's still true.
Well, and I, I like your point too, that like, you know, this year, particularly when Mahomes went down, the offense just went absolutely down the tank, and it wasn't just Mahomes at that point, Simmons and Moore and Rasheed Rice, there's a lot of people that are missing time, but I, I like your point about that too, because, you know, like there for a while, like like Shane or McVeigh, he has basically done a full 180.
He started out playing a ton of 11 personnel, and now has gone all the way to 13.
He's basically like doing the opposite of what he was doing.
So, like, the idea that this has to look a certain way.
In fact, you know, we saw this year in the draft, like blocking titans just got like extremely emphasized in the draft.
You almost wonder if there's a little bit of a zig when everyone else is zagging, because teams are trying to play this big nickel with a a guy who can stop the run and still play nickel.
Are the Chiefs actually going to be able to take advantage of that with how they run their personnel?
Yeah, there is an element of zigging when everyone else is zagging, and we'll have to, I mean, we will, we will have to see, but it's hard for me to imagine.
I mean, it's not impossible to imagine, it certainly looked like Belichick, uh Belichick lost his fastball at the end, but it's hard for me to feel like Reed has lost his fastball until we really see him lose his fastball when Mahomes is healthy.
One nugget from the almanac that I really liked is that, uh, speaking of fastball , one of the things I talked about a lot with head coaches and play callers is how aggressive they are.
This was Andy Reid's most aggressive year on 4th down and 3rd down.
It's like he was more aggressive than he's been in the past, which is a good sign for the kind of , has he lost it or not lost it element.
Yes, it, it is nice to see him be more aggressive.
It's very frustrating that he's been among the most conservative coaches over the last few years.
I mean, some of that is age, usually older coaches are more conservative, but, you know, I want Mike Frazier to get in his ear more and make him more aggressive.
So, you know, hopefully we, we're, we're getting that done.
Yeah, and I, I think the last couple of years they've had a defense they can lean on a little bit more like that 2023 defense was good enough that punting the ball at times could feel like a win for them thinking back to that 1949ers Super Bowl where they basically went the whole third quarter with nobody scoring.
It was just a punt fest.
I don't like that way of thinking though.
It's still better to have the ball than not have the ball.
Oh, I totally agree.
And then, you know, like.
I, I worry a little bit because Kareem Hunt, the one thing he was great at was short yardage.
I mean, you could get that guy on that, the ball in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1, and he was gonna get it every time.
He was gonna find the hole and power through.
Chiefs don't really have a short yardage back right now.
I'm a big Nebraska guy.
I love Emmett Johnson.
That's not his game.
Kenneth Walker, that's not really his game either, and the Chiefs refused to run a quarterback sneak.
I worry a little bit about 3rd and 4th.
They need that tight end that sneaks thing going on.
I don't know whether that would be.
Riley or what, but they need that like 3rd tight end who comes in and runs sneaks kind of thing like the Texans had with like Cade Stover and stuff or AJ Barner, right?
Like that's AJ Barner is a good guy to take late in a fantasy draft because he might just get you a rushing touchdown here and there for the Seahawks.
I agree.
Hopefully they do that instead of, uh, running speed option with Blake Bell, which is something we've witnessed.
here.
I mean they can always run that thing.
Tyreek Hill always ran where he went this way and then that way, and it seemed to always convert 4th and 1, but you know.
A lot easier when you got prime Tyreek Hill, for sure.
Uh, OK, so talking a little bit about, uh, Mahomes' regression a little bit.
There's been a lot of dialogue this week, which I think it's frankly silly worrying so much about who's number 1 and who's number 2 instead of talking about who's 78, 19.
And there's been a lot of talk about has Josh Allen surpassed Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has clearly had a statistical regression the last couple of years.
How much do you view his statistical regression as part of his play, and how much do you view it just as the surroundings?
I think it's a combination of both.
I will say as part of his play, if you look over the last couple of years, his, uh, accuracy rate, so how often we chart the passes as accurate, has gone from 81 to 76.5 to 74.
So that is a gradual drop and his sack pressure rate.
Has increased, so he's taking more sacks and he's not quite as accurate, but a lot of it also is the surroundings.
And I think it's a combination of the two, and he still does, I mean, we'll have to see what happens when he comes back from the injury, but as far as last year goes, he still does the magical plays where he makes something out of nothing on 3rd and long, and that's really what most made Mahomes Mahomes, and he's still doing that stuff.
Yeah, and the, and the sack avoidance is a, is a huge part of his game, right?
And it's worth noting he's had 9 different starting left tackles, uh, in the last 3 years.
That's, that's certainly not helped, but some of those stats were accumulated when Joe Tooney was still here too, and they still had Creed and Trey Smith, and Juwan Taylor for all of his shortcomings, uh, penalty wise, was still a pretty good pass protector.
So at the deep ball is the thing that he's got to improve on.
Like, to me, that's the part of his game that is missing the most with as much arm talent as he has, both him, Tyquan Thornton, Xavier Worthy, and when MVS was here, he's just not able to accurately get on the same page with guys downfield.
Sometimes it's too far, too, sometimes it's too short, sometimes Xavier Worthy runs out of bounds.
They've not been able to get that on the same page, and that's something else that will really open up the run game too.
Yeah, OK, um, so one thing I, by the way, check out Aaron's appearance on the Athletic Football Show.
I think it was, uh, last week.
It was really, really good.
Love listening to you and Robert talk.
You mentioned on the Athletic Football Show that the projections really like top defensive picks, as far as like how much they can contribute right away.
How much does that impact the Chiefs' defensive projections this year by adding Mansor Delane, Peter Woods, and our Mason Thomas?
Yeah, it likes it.
I mean, basically, it's kind of like .
It's more predictable that top uh uh defensive players will help than that top offensive players will help.
I'm not saying about which is better to draft in the long run .
I'm saying which is better for that, you know, the first year.
Right?
So, um, it definitely helps, like we have talent, uh, variables in the projection system, and adding those three guys helps to counteract the loss of the, of the, of the defensive backs, right?
That they lost the three starting defensive backs, so, it helps to counter that so that we're not taking too much away from their defense because of the loss of talent.
Yeah, and, you know, something that I would, I, I do, I had a lot of our draft coverage here, and, and something that I talked a little bit about for the longest time is, you know, what are the Chiefs doing at 9, what are they doing at 9?
And I mentioned that like, hey, sometimes just taking the top corner, it tends to pan out really good.
Derek Stanley, JC Horne, Sauce Gardner.
I mean, you people mentioned Jeff Auda, which was more injury related and a terrible Lions team, but for the most part, the last 1015 years drafting a corner in the top 10 it's a guy for the Browns also whose name I never remember.
He was Denzel Ward.
Sorry, what?
No, not.
He was the, he was the guy who was a complete flop.
It was the same draft as Manziel, but he went like 6th overall.
I never remember his name, so it's not perfect taking a corner high, but Garrett Classen of the Athletic, back when he wrote for me at Football Outsiders, wrote a piece about the fact that a lot of top drafted cornerbacks have immediate success.
Like some cornerbacks take 3 or 4 years to really get good, like later drafted guys who turn into Namdi Asomwar or whatever.
But the top guys, they tend to be good right away.
So I think it's very likely that Delane is gonna be good right away.
Yeah, there was some unrest here because the Chiefs had, that was the name of the guy from the, sorry, the name of the guy from the Browns was Gilbert.
That was the name of the quarterback that was really bad.
There you go.
Yeah, there's been some unrest here because like the Chiefs for so long have just been able to moneyball that position, and I tend to look at it more of like handing an ape a machine gun, where like you've got this development that Spags and Dave Merritt have of taking corners, and then you just handed like one of the most naturally gifted corners that they've ever had.
So what, how high is his ceiling compared to Jalen Watson and Josh Williams and some of the other guys that they've gotten a lot out of?
This happens because there are teams that have success with lower rated guys at a position, and then all of a sudden they use a first-round pick on that position.
You're like, what?
The, you know, the Patriots were like that with running backs, right?
They had all the success with, uh, veterans, you know, guys like Antoine Smith.
All of a sudden they used a first-round pick on Lawrence Maroni.
It was very weird, but, you know, if a guy, a team feels like a first-round pick should be spent on a guy.
I mean, we can debate the trade up.
I'm not a fan of the trade-up.
I would have rather stayed at 9 and gotten the 2nd-best corner, if, if, even if, I mean, they might have gotten delayed anyway, honestly.
But once they traded up, I mean, this was the guy that was best for them and there's probably gonna be good right from the start.
Yeah, uh, OK, Chiefs schedule, like, well, that's probably one of the best things about the almanac, your guys' schedule breakdown.
The Chiefs, they get a 3rd place schedule, you're like, OK, good, they get a 3rd place, oh, they play the NFC West and the AFC West is still a really tough division.
How does the Chiefs' schedule break out?
Uh, we have it 13th.
And as far as comparing it to the other teams in the division, these are the three games that are different, based on the standings last year.
Colts.
Falcons and Bengals.
The whole NFC South is who the heck knows.
I mean, we do think Tampa Bay is better than the other three teams, but, you know, playing the Falcons isn't much different than the Panthers or Saints.
But the Bengals should be better this year.
So that's actually kind of a tough one.
You'd rather play the Steelers, that you, you would rather play the Steelers in 1st place than the Bengals from 3rd.
Uh, so that's why they end up 13th in the schedule.
It's about an average schedule, you know, they, they get the Jets and the Dolphins.
Right, those seem like pretty easy wins.
The Patriots and Bills are hard, you know, Cardinals seem like an easy win.
The Cardinals are gonna be a little frisky.
By the way, the Cardinals were the most injured team in the NFL last year.
And they had the hardest schedule.
They had the hardest schedule again this year, but I think the Cardinals are gonna go over their Vegas numbers like 3.5 or something absurdly ridiculous.
All they have to do is win 4 of their 11 non-division games.
They're gonna be a little friskier than people expect, but that's still probably a Chiefs win.
Yeah, yeah, that's good to know.
I, I always like the Nuggets.
Like I know you guys are really high on the Texans as well too, which I think a lot of that is kind of, kind of rooted in like incredible defense that got better this year, which I, I keep trying to hit on, like bringing in the kid from Ohio State at defensive tackle, they bring in Reed Blankenship, the defense somehow got better, and then.
Like a CJ Stroud, like, I know the last thing we saw from him wasn't great, but if he can just be Sam Darnold, I mean, like that, that's a team that can win the Super Bowl.
DJ Stroud in the regular season, ranked 11th in passing DVOA.
I know that will blow people's minds cause he was so bad in the playoffs, but he had a bad offensive line and no running game to speak of, and he was still good.
And part of the problem with the playoffs was Nico Collins got hurt.
So I, and hopefully they get Tank Dell offense to go with that defense.
Yeah, hopefully they get Tank Dell back.
Jaden Higgins and Jalen Noel take some steps.
Um, Urshry looks pretty solid at left tackle.
We like him.
He's a Kansas City kid, so wishing him the best see him until the playoffs.
Yeah, and then, uh, you know, they, they had David Montgomery, so that, that's gonna be a tough team, and we know that like Stroud does have it in there somewhere.
Um, so the, the Chiefs, like, something I wanna ask you about is positional value.
The, the spots that the Chiefs got better at were some of, like, they were the absolute worst positions on the roster, defensive tackle outside of Chris Jones, Nickelback, where they had Shamari Connor playing most of the time.
And running back, not really particularly high positions of value.
Nickelback, they add Kater Khu, Jaden Kennedy, Christian, Christian Roland Wallace, who they like is back as well too.
Defensive tackle, they bring in Kyris Tonga, Peter Woods, Omar Norman Lot of the injury, and then they totally overhaul the running back position.
How much do you think that actually matters to how good the Chiefs can be, cause those aren't really big positions of value, but they were so bad at those spots last year.
I mean, Nickelback these days kind of is.
Right?
So we'll see what Cohu can do coming off the injury.
He was all right in Miami.
He wasn't great or anything.
But um I understand your feeling that they've gone from being really bad to even average matters a lot at like nose tackle and, and nickelback.
I mean, I think it mattered.
It doesn't matter as much as, uh, you know, if they had gotten a really good pass rusher or something, you know, it doesn't matter as much as that, but it matters .
Yeah, I, I, I'm just crossing my fingers, like I was a big Peter Woods guy, and his ceiling was so high the year before, before he was associated with Clemson, as you guys put it in the almanac, it was one of his greatest flaws of being on that Clemson team, uh, that, you know, maybe somehow Omar Norman Lott was his pass rush monster that they can kind of turn that interior defensive line into a pass rush machine, and then kind of overcome their mediocrity at the edge position.
Yeah, I mean, that, you know, listen, the edge is one of their, uh, is one of their weaknesses.
Although, listen, Karl Loftus two years ago, had a ton of pressures.
He didn't turn them into as many sacks, but he had a ton of pressures.
I think he may be a little bit underrated at this point.
I, I think so.
Like Ryan Kerrigan kind of has always been my comp for him.
Yeah, that sounds about right, yeah, yeah, and like he's a great number 2, and you don't really wanna let number 2s out the door, and a lot of people are frustrated with his contract number, but like after these Will Anderson numbers come in and everything, like, his contract's gonna end up being kind of where he is as an edge rusher, which is probably like top 15, and that, that feels about right.
Yeah, I'm, yeah, he'll, he'll, he's not getting Anderson money.
No, no, for sure, but it feels like, you know, anytime a player resets, uh, he gets a contract, that number starts looking a lot better in a year or two, you know, we had gotten to a point where APY Mahomes was like barely in the top 10 until he got his new deal.
So there'll be, it won't be long before that Carl Loftus number is pretty palatable.
Uh, one question is, is, is opposite Car Loftus, but, uh, you know, we talk about that in the book.
Yeah, yeah, they, that's definitely a spot.
I, I know a lot of Chiefs fans were hoping that maybe Cam Jordan would want to reunite with Steve Spagnolo, but he chooses to end his career in, uh, New Orleans, which makes a lot of sense.
Uh, I wanted to ask you, the almanacs got a really cool segment at the end called the Top 25 prospects, and it's not draft as much as it is players who played under a certain percentage of.
Snaps, looking to be a breakout.
Uh, the number 1, I'll, I'll leave for people to go check out in the almanac, but I will call out a couple of Chiefs.
Your number 3 was Noel Williams, and the number 10 was Ashton Gillati, which both those guys being good would be a huge boon to the Chiefs.
So, tell me a little bit about why the numbers like Ashton Gillati and Noel Williams so much.
Williams was really good in a limited time last year.
He had an above-average coverage DVOA.
The coaches seemed to really like him, you know, he had good, people said good things about him coming out of college and he's got the opportunity.
He has the opportunity to take that other starting cornerback spot ahead of Fulton if they, you know, if he can outplay Fulton in camp.
Gelati is interesting.
There, there's two edge rushers we have high, Josiah Stewart from the Rams and Glati from the Chiefs, and they're sort of opposite.
Stewart has a, did not do well in our sackier projection system coming out of college, but had a really good pass rush win rate as a rookie.
Gillani did really well in the sacks year projection system, but did not have a really good pass rush win rate as a rookie.
So, the Gillani write-up is more about sort of the potential that he showed coming out of college, not necessarily what he did as a rookie, combined with, once again, the opportunity.
That they need somebody to emerge opposite Karl Loftus.
And here is a guy who, if he can live up to his college potential, can emerge opposite Car Loftus as the starting guy.
Yeah, Glati, Glati is interesting, right?
Like he's not particularly big.
I mean, he's, he's a smaller edge rusher, but he plays a lot like Car Loftus, where he's very firm, heavy-handed off the edge, and the opposite edge rusher position for the Chiefs.
It feels like the Dark Knight where they break the pool stick and it's like, all right, we're gonna have tryouts here.
Uh, failed for sure.
It sucks that the local kid busted so badly because he was a local kid, right?
Like, you know, it's yeah.
And, and that's some of the worry too with our Mason Thomas, cause like Felix andduque and Zama at the time was the smallest edge rusher that we had seen the Chiefs taken under Brett Veach with Spagnolo, while Mason Thomas is that to to the nth degree.
So like, is our Mason Thomas gonna play?
I, I, you know, that's something that I've talked about is like, I, I won't be surprised if we look down in week 9, it's like our Mason Thomas, 8 snaps, cool.
Um, but like, you know, if, if they're not gonna be able to get him in on early downs and, and play the run and trust them, like, that's a problem, and listening to Spagnolo talk about him, it's like, oh well, DeMarco really liked him out of Oklahoma.
It's like, OK, well that's cool the running back coach liked him, but are you gonna play him?
Obviously when you take a guy that high in the draft, you hope that you are going to play him yet, yeah, well, yeah, you know, it, it's, yeah, it wouldn't, it wouldn't be the first time for this team, and yeah, just to echo the sentiment about Noel Williams, I, I know that they really do like him, and I won't be surprised if he's, you know, if it's Williams and Delane right away because Christian Fulton , despite getting a contract here in Kansas City, the Chiefs have seemed adverse to playing him.
He was a healthy scratch for quite a large part of the year, which the whole thing was just weird.
him.
We know he's never gonna be healthy.
He's never played 17 games in his career, but it'll be interesting to see how that cornerback position breaks out.
I know that they love how , uh, you know, physical he is and how tough he is at the catch point.
He had some great plays against AJ Brown, so fingers crossed those projections turn out because if they get that out of those two guys and Josh Simmons, that, that's a huge win for them this year.
And, uh, for those who want to get the book, The FTN Football Almanac, I'll, I'll, I'll give a, a bit of a hint.
The number one is Isaac Tesla from the Lions.
He is our number one, underground prospect this year, really great deep receiver.
Yeah, Isaac Tesla, I mean with him, man, it's like every, every catch was a highlight reel catch, right?
And he was, yeah, and like he's one of those guys too that the touchdown rate is crazy on for sure.
I, I'm, I'm certain that the Lions want that to work out after giving up like 3 3rd round picks to go get him.
Um, all right, last question for you, Aaron.
The Chiefs' final record in 2026.
I know you guys got your mean and your aggregate projections, but just what does Aaron Shotts feel like the Chiefs come in at?
10 and 7.
That feels about right.
I think, I think this is one of those years too, that the defense is probably gonna start out slow because of the youth on the defense.
I think it could look a lot like 2022 , just with the worst record because the, the division has improved so much.
I mean, I don't know if they're a playoff team because the AFC is very top-heavy.
The, the league as a whole is very, not top-heavy, that's not the right word.
There are like 20 above average teams, cause the bad teams are really bad.
Right?
Like, there are a lot of teams that are like slightly above average, and the Chiefs might be one of them.
So I don't know, you look at the playoffs and you're like, well, if Jones is healthy, the Colts and the Jags and Texans, and then the Broncos, and then the Chargers and Chiefs, and probably the Ravens, and probably the Bengals, and now you're at 8 teams and you haven't even gotten to the AFC East yet.
So, I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but I'm going with 10 and 7.
OK, well, Aaron, we really appreciate it.
Uh, just one more plug for the FTN Almanac and just FTN in general, uh, the GA subscription.
I mean, don't tell Mike this, but I would probably just work for the subscription alone to FTN, um, that and the NFL Pro Sub is super handy.
I use it every day, um, but I'll take, I'll take the money too.
Uh, but FTN is awesome resource, you guys gotta check it out.
Yeah, with all this charting data with DVOA updated constantly throughout the season.
So if you want to know who's the best against man or zone or whatever, it's updated constantly throughout the season with the subscription.
And then the book, of course, FTNFantassy.com/almanac, or search Amazon for FTN Football Almanac 2026.
You want the book with Jackson Smith Najigba on the cover.
Absolutely.
Well, we'll get you out of here, Aaron.
I know you were wanting to catch the World Cup game.
We're pretty excited here in Kansas City.
We're hoping, I mean, either way, Argentina or England, both teams were camped here in Kansas City.
So one of our home teams, hypothetically, even though the US men's national team's been eliminated, will advance to the finals.
So thanks again so much for your time, sir.
Thanks for having me on.
There he goes.
There's Aaron Schatz of FTN, author of the FTN Almanac , a great resource.
Again, I wanna just really encourage you guys to check that out, um, really useful resource.
Uh, wanted to spend the last couple of minutes of the show here talking about What are the things that you can look for at training camp when you head up there in just a couple of weeks, as hard as it is to believe, training camp is just around the corner.
So I wanted to kind of break down the top position battles to watch at camp.
Um, my number one here, and, and the position that I think will be the most contentious and probably will change often, is nickelback corner.
Um, one, the big win here is like, hey , Steve Spagnolo, the Chiefs defense, they are no longer kind of just throwing Jamari Connor in the slot.
That again, like I was talking about with Aaron, that's one of the things that I think could be one of the biggest wins for this team is just getting better there and so much better.
Um, Aaron talked a little about Kater Cohu is a guy who, you know, a league average nickelback.
Good news is like he should be able to hit the ground running cause he tore his ACL very early in the season.
And, um, that, like he should be fully ready to go and hit camp.
He's the veteran, he's done it the most.
And then you bring in Jane Kennedy, who is kind of a more traditional slot corner.
We were talking a little bit about big Nichols like Nicky Manwari and some of these other guys who are big and physical, but athletic enough to cover out of the slot and still be able to support the run.
That's not Kennedy, but Kennedy is gonna be a lot closer to like a Trent McDuffie.
An undersized cornerback that's sticky in coverage, but still pretty feisty in the run game as well too, and supporting the screens.
And, you know, I, I know Nate Taylor of ESPN is still talking about Chris Roland Wallace and how much the Chiefs like him.
He, you know, kind of a safety, kind of a nickelback guy.
I think that position is gonna be really, really feisty, and don't, don't forget about Leerus Snead either.
I kind of had a moment this week where I was like, oh hey, Laerrius Snead is on the Chiefs again.
I kind of just ear hold that.
But like, Snead could hypothetically be in the slot.
I, I don't know about that with like, all the injuries and how well does he move now.
You, you need those movement skills in the slot, um, but there's a chance that he's there, and then Snead in the safety, and then Chris Roland Wallace at safety, like there's a lot of interchanging there.
The secondary in general will be very interesting to watch.
Um, I suspect that it will probably be delaying very quickly, and then Fulton and Williams on the other spot, but Nickelback, I think it's gonna be the best battle to watch.
My number 2 position to watch is right tackle.
Um, you know, even last year, the Chiefs were heavily rotating Jalen Moore and Jawan Taylor, right tackle.
For Juwan Taylor, I think that was mostly injury-related, managing that knee, but they wanted to get Jalen Moore exposure, and he's getting paid $15 million a year.
I think he's the heavy favorite to start at right tackle this year, but we know they like Isapole, and even Kh Khalil Benson.
It's a guy that they brought in, who has a lot of physical tools, but has some room for growth.
So, I suspect we will see Isapole, Khalil Benson rotate in at right tackle.
Be interesting to see how that position plays out , and just how does Jaylen Moore look at right tackle.
That's gonna be a big part of it too.
Hmm.
For my number 3.
I think probably for me, The wide receiver room is pretty set.
I think that you're gonna just see a heavy dosage of Thornton, Rice, and uh, and Worthy, and that's probably gonna be it.
So for me, I'm, I'm gonna take running back too, as my next battle.
And, you know, I, I think this is probably gonna be a little bit more murky of waters.
You know, Kenneth Walker is gonna be the RB one of the team, that makes sense.
RB2 is one of those though, that's like, what role are we talking about?
I think Imari DiMercado will get the first nod on passing downs as a passing down back, which also it's worth mentioning that like, a lot of people in Seattle who cover the team.
Never doubted that Kenneth Walker could be a passing down back.
It's just that they had someone better for it, whether it be catching the ball or pass protecting.
Part of the reason why Kenneth Walker had the postseason that he did is cause he finally got a full opportunity.
And keep in mind too, with Walker, it's about keeping him healthy.
Um, he was healthy down the stretch run, and he got the playing time, and that's why he just had that terrific postseason.
DeMarcado is a guy who like the yards per carry, looked really good.
Now, part of that is, it's like, OK, we got 3rd and long draws.
And, you know, he didn't get nearly the opportunities, but can he be Samaj P Ryan?
And I say Samaj P Ryan, not Derek McKinnon, cause McKinnon's 2023, uh, 2022 season was excellent.
And I think that's really high bar to set for any kind of vet minimum running back that's coming in here.
But can he be a solid pass catcher, a solid pass protector, and can he just get the every once in a while carry?
But obviously, we have to talk about Emmett Johnson too.
I, I wonder if Emmett Johnson can start to carve out a role as an RB too, cause, I mean, this team's gonna want him to win that job.
And also keep in mind that they still got Bershard Smith, who like coming out of the school, his best trait is catching the ball.
Does he put on weight?
What does his body look like?
He's a guy who needs to add that weight to be able to carry.
The ball more consistently between the tackles.
Running back is gonna be really interesting, and then they kind of have some people waiting in the wings too, like Jay Knott out of Oklahoma, um, DeMarco Murray brings him in from Oklahoma, like, can he do anything?
It'll, it'll be interesting to see.
I, the way I think it breaks down, I think it's Walker 70 to 80% of the time.
Then I think it's probably DeMarcado on passing downs, and then Emmett Johnson spares Emmett, uh, Kenneth Walker and Kenneth Walker situations.
So that's 1st and 2nd down, rundowns, those type of things.
I think maybe next year, it could look a lot like Blake Kor and Kyron Williams, where it's like, hey, we got two guys here that we both like carrying the ball, and can both do a little bit of everything.
So, that's how I think the running back position breaks down.
And uh my final position here, and this one, this one's interesting cause I, again, I think it's as much about roles as anything else is, it's like, what is defensive tackle look like, uh, partly because Kyris Tonga is added, he's, you know, the guy that they've paid, but Tonga is as much a nose tackle as anything else.
Um, that is the role that he played, where he's playing head up on the center and two gapping and occupying space.
Are they gonna use him like that?
Or they're gonna put him as a traditional defensive tackle at a 3 technique and line him up over the guard or shade him inside.
Does that free Chris Jones up more?
Then we add in Peter Woods, who, you know, last year, at 10, uh, the year before, excuse me, at Clemson, he lined up at edge almost as much as he did defensive tackle.
And then this last year at Clemson, where things really got off the off the skids was, he slimmed down to try to match that ask of him where he was playing on the edge a lot, and instead a new defensive coordinator comes in, they start playing him at pure nose and one tech a lot, which didn't really match what he had done with his body composition, and then the season went down the toilet for Clemson.
Uh, and then you've got Omar Norman Lott coming off the injury.
What does he do?
Last year, they bulked him up and he was playing much more closer to like a Kris Tonga type of role.
Does he come in a little bit closer to the guy he was at Tennessee?
What does this look like?
Is Peter Woods out snapping Omar Norman a lot?
Where, how often is Tonga on the field with Chris Jones?
How often is Chris Jones off the field and it's Peter Woods and Tonga, Omar Norman Lott and Chris Jones, you know, like those mixing and matching, I think is gonna be really interesting.
But the most important spot on the defensive line is that other edge position.
We, we alluded to it with Aaron a little bit, you know, the side, the, the right side is going to be George Carloftis, but that left side.
Felix Anaduke Izama, make it or break it year for him, not getting the 5th year option picked up.
Is there just enough of a glean there with what made him a 1st round pick for him to take advantage of it and like, hey, this is your last chance, man.
Like if you're gonna try to get some sort of contract, you see the money that Adafe or Adafeowe or some of those guys got, like, can he just like maybe dip into that a little bit?
That would be a massive surprise.
We've heard Aaron talk about why they're bullish on Ashton Glati because the sack numbers and stuff were really good in college, but he didn't really put that on tape this year.
Was that an ability thing or was it an athleticism thing?
He's gonna have an opportunity.
And then our Mason Thomas.
You know my concerns about him playing since the moment the Chiefs drafted him when we were live on the show.
Wonder just a little bit about when is he getting on the field?
Is it early downs?
Is it just pass rush situations?
How does he look against the run?
All those type of things, and then, you know, Car Loftus, he's gonna play 70 to 80% of the snaps.
How much do they spell him?
How often do they give him a chance to catch his breath and, and use some of those other guys?
How much does Chris Jones make in there?
Defensive line is gonna be a really interesting one.
I, I can't wait to get out there and camp.
Christian and I have already got a date on the calendar that me and him are gonna be going out there.
So be looking for us to have videos and stuff up of training camp.
It's uh, it's getting really close.
So, uh, I'm going to duck out of here and go watch the World Cup match.
I don't know who I want to win.
I don't know if I want Messi to win, just to kind of like continue the GOAT narrative.
It just feels really dirty rooting for England, you know, like the whole revolution thing, like, I don't know, I kind of feel like I gotta root against England, but I kind of like Harry Kane, Harry Kane, we'll see, uh, but thanks so much for joining us.
Thanks again to Aaron for taking his time.
I mean, Uh, he's like the big boss at FTN and very kind of him to donate his time.
Check out the almanac.
I've tweeted multiple stats from it.
Uh, learn how to take your fantasy league more seriously this year, or if you just want to learn more about the game, it's a great opportunity to do so.
And those things are evergreen.
A year or two from now, all that data is still gonna be valuable and useful.
So, be sure to check that out.
So, thank you to Aaron, thank you to Christian, even though he's not here, he's on vacation, and thank you, Joanne, to our producer for doing a great job.
Uh, that's gonna be it for me here today on the Intangibles, and as always, go Chiefs.
