Packers' win total shows they are 'high variance'
Drew Dinsick believes there's a scenario where the Packers are under .500 "deep into the season." With that in mind, he and Trysta Krick evaluate how bettors should approach Green Bay's win total this season.
Video Transcript
Nfl preseason gets under way tonight, Drew.
The Packers take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
The Packers were a team that we thought could make a legitimate title run last year, especially after they traded for Micah Parsons to bolster their pass rush, and then he tore his ACL.
After that, the Packers went oh and five.
They lost to the Bears in the wildcard round.
So now that they've had an entire off-season to prepare for this reality, what do we think about the Packers this season?
Yeah.
The, the Packers were my number one power-rated team for a lot of last season, and the Micah Parsons injury completely shattered their hopes of getting to a deep run in the playoffs.
That and, some mismanagement of games by, Mr. LaFleur, particularly in the, in the, you know, most important, part of the season, doomed them in twenty twenty-five.
As we head into twenty twenty-six expecting Parsons to miss the first six weeks of the season at a minimum, when he comes back, whether he'll-- whether or not he'll be his, you know, kind of full-strength disruptive self remains to be seen.
But going into the season, that has a huge impact on how you rate this defense.
This is probably a bottom ten unit in the NFL, and just really has questions at all three levels in my opinion, which means the offense is gonna have to surprise to the good if this is a team that's gonna compete for the division.
To their credit, they have the best combination of quarterback and OC, in the NFC North.
I think, the Love-LaFleur combination rates, you know, kind of in the top five in the NFL of good coordinator and highly talented and capable quarterback kind of coming into his prime.
S- and Tucker Kraft being back will certainly help raise the tide of the offense overall.
That said, this offensive line across all offensive line evaluators I've talked to is gonna be a bottom five unit, which means Jordan Love is gonna find himself under a lot more pressure than-- this year than he is used to.
So I think where I'm expecting this Packers team to go is have significant growing pains in the early portion of the season where the defense is consistently giving up points into the high twenties and the offense is performing well when they're able to protect Jordan Love and struggling when he is under duress.
So there is a world where they are under .500 deep into the season, but Parsons' return could help give them huge wind in their sails.
So I think this Packers team is a team we let flounder early and then look for a buy on late as they get better down the stretch.
They could still win the NFC North.
They could still kind of put themselves in a position to make a playoff run, but they're gonna have to prove that they can build on, the success we saw last year in the absence of some of their key players before we-- but before we ultimately get involved.
High variance team, and LaFleur is hoping that the variance is high or he could be on the hot seat.
