Will Pierce evolve to Colts' clear No. 1 option?
Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers, and Matthew Berry discuss Alec Pierce's role in the Indianapolis Colts offense next season following his reported deal to remain with the franchise.
Video Transcript
More receiver news right at the buzzer.
The Colts knew if Alec Pierce got to test open free agency, that might have been it for Alec Pierce with the Colts.
They get a four-year, $116 million deal done.
The trickle effect of this is to clear out some money.
They send Michael Pittman to the Steelers for a late-round pick swap.
Michael Pittman signs a three-year, $59 million extension with the Steelers.
So double Colts moves here.
Matthew, obviously Alec Pierce from a fantasy angle I find interesting to digest because I think at times before any of this started, we were like, "God, imagine Alec Pierce on the Patriots or the Bills," and you start naming all these different places.
Good for Alec Pierce, friend of the show, gets a giant payday from the Colts.
But how do we project him now?
Pittman's out, some more targets, but still some questions at quarterback even with Daniel Jones on the transition tag.
Yeah.
I mean, I think a lot of people saw that price tag and were like, "Wait, did Jay Croucher negotiate this?"
And the answer is yes.
Yes.
Nice job, Jay.
Yeah, it's well done.
Yeah.
For the shoe.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Alec's, Alec's, Alec's my boy.
Yeah.
He was lovely as well on our show.
Yeah.
Very nice man, Alec Pierce.
Yes.
Very happy he's gonna get paid.
Yes.
I think he's gonna spend that money very responsibly.
Spend it all.
I don't know how you spend it, but Alec Pierce seems like a very high character, type of operator.
But look, I think, look, we've talked about Alec Pierce- Yeah.
Right ad nauseam to the point where he's become- Yeah a bit on the show.
But look, I think the thing with Pierce is that, look, he went over 1,000 yards receiving this year despite missing time, despite the fact that he only had one reception all season over 50 yards, so he wasn't just fluking it with bombs.
And to me, the most encouraging thing, is that he runs a diversified route tree now, and the fact that, you know, he had games where he earned 13 targets against the Steelers, 10 targets against the Chargers.
The fact that he was able to do more over the middle.
The fact also that he was able to have a massive game with Riley Leonard as his quarterback.
The last time we saw Alec Pierce, he was going 4 for 132 and two touchdowns with Riley Leonard in a game that he got ejected from, which he shouldn't have been ejected from as we've covered as well.
But I think that Pierce, as well with Pittman gone, the Colts are very much a forgotten team in the AFC landscape.
But, I am old enough to remember the first two months of the season where they had the best offense in football, and I think that the bones of that offense are still mostly there.
We'll see what Daniel Jones looks like off the Achilles, presuming that he is the starter as everyone, expects him to be, but this is still a really good offensive line.
It's still Pierce with Tyler Warren, and Josh Downs alongside of him.
Pittman is gone.
I think that more affects Josh Downs than it'll affect Alec Pierce, who I think operates in a little bit of a different sphere.
still Jonathan Taylor at running back.
And I think that Pierce, you know, he's young enough at 25 where he can take another step.
and Connor, like this guy, it feels like Alec Pierce was like a seven-rounder, seventh rounder, came out of nowhere.
Alec Pierce was drafted in the second round.
Right.
He's got a lot of talent I think that he really showed it last year.
Yeah.
Size, sub 4 four-wheels, like, it's all there for Alec Pierce, and obviously it's He's been on the right trajectory where he's gotten so much better year after year.
And part of that, it's been health.
I think he's had three concussions throughout, you know, maybe through the I'm not sure through the pros.
I know he had two in a nine-month stretch.
So injuries have played a part in sometimes derailing that.
But when he's healthy, he can stretch the field.
And Matthew, I think the big thing is with Michael Pittman gone, Pierce kind of finally evolves from that role of, okay, vertical guy, vertical guy, vertical guy.
Can we get you running some shallow crossers where you have the ball in your hands after the catch, or some slants or some digs?
Basically just open up the route tree where you operate more like a higher volume, number one-ish, rather than this vertical stretch number three, number two receiver.
They're paying him to be a lot more than that now.
They are, but fantasy-wise, I don't know that he's gonna be much more than that.
Look, I Look, everything you say makes total sense, right?
I, I Listen, we like Alec Pierce.
We liked him on the show.
He, he, he has become a complete wide receiver.
I understand, you know, for all the jokes about, "Wow, I can't believe Alec Pierce got that kind of money," and, "Did Jay Croucher negotiate the deal?"
The truth is, is the reporting out there is that Alec Pierce actually turned down more money to return to the Colts.
I know my Commanders really wanted him.
I know there were a lot of teams very interested in his services, and ultimately he, he got offered supposedly more money than what he ended up s- but he gave a hometown discount to come back to Indianapolis, which is great.
But here's the thing.
So last year he has a breakout year, right?
He, he's awesome.
We love it.
And so I'm gonna take weeks one through 17.
I think the week 18 game, I know he had a huge game here, but I think week, weeks one through 17 is probably a more accurate reflection.
He has a breakout season last year.
He was awesome.
To your point, Jay, the Colts offense was unstoppable the first two s- first two months of the year.
Alec Pierce was wide receiver 36 on a points per game basis.
Now, okay, you take Michael Pittman and move him to Pittsburgh so there's some more targets to go around.
Okay, fine.
But, you know, this is still a guy who, despite some of the games you mentioned, Jay, still a guy who averaged under six targets a game.
Still only had an 18% target share.
He's led the NFL in yards per reception each of the last two years, so he is a deep ball threat.
I agree with you that his game has become much more than that, and certainly this contract says they expect him to be a number one wide receiver.
But I think as we sit here, if we're here a year from now talking about the Colts, do we think he gets more targets than Tyler Warren?
I don't.
Do we think he gets more targets than Josh Downs?
I think there's a chance that Downs gets more targets as well, just when you think about how Daniel Jones throws the ball.
Now, what Pierce does is he opens up this entire offense.
They still wanna be run heavy with Jonathan Taylor.
so I mean, look, he was wide receiver 36 on a points per game basis last year.
I think that's about right.
Like, maybe move him up a little bit.
Again, extra targets with no Pittman there.
But to your point, Connor, probably helps Josh Downs more than it helps Alec Pierce.
so I think he's, like, you know, in the 30 to 35 range, you know, in d- as a wide receiver.
But I just I think this is a better move for the Colts NFL-wise than it is suddenly-You know, Alec Pierce is suddenly a, you know, a top 20 wide receiver and an automatic starter.
I think he's gonna have some huge spike weeks next year.
Love him, best ball, you know, as we like to say.
But I, I think consistent fantasy production, given how the Colts offense runs, I think it's gonna be tough to see Pierce Look, Pierce has that skill set, and maybe he does become the alpha.
But it just feels like in Shane Steichen's offense, they like to spread it around.
And, that I, I think the person that leads the t- the team in targets next year is Tyler Warren.
Yeah.
I think on the Colts, I, I think I'm gonna end up with Josh Downs in a lot of drafts, because he's kind of the forgotten guy in this mix.
One, Josh Downs is really good.
Yep.
And then two, he is taking, he's gonna take a lot, of the usage that Michael Pittman got.
And I think that there is enough, there is enough space in this offense for three pass catchers to succeed in Warren, Downs, and Pierce.
and also the, the scary thing with Pierce, as we mentioned, like he is in a lot of collisions by the fact that he is downfield so often.
He's in these jump ball situations.
and while we hope obviously nothing happens to him, if he has a concussion next year, it could be a long-term absence, as we saw with Chauncy Ward on the Colts, dealing with, his own issues.
So Josh Downs, I think there's, there is a material He's gonna be the third pass catcher drafted on the Colts clearly.
and I think there is a material chance that, you know, he can be, their number one guy.
Yeah.
It's They will be a very interesting offense for us to talk through in August of the distribution of everybody and, of course, the health of the quarterback, which is kind of the engine or, or sets the, the floor of what all those guys can do.
Speaking of, it's always good when we get some fantasy relevant quarterback news in free agency.
We mentioned this at the top.
Malik Willis, Matthew, ends up going to- Be- before we move to Malik Willis, real quickly, I just wanna talk, I wanna touch briefly on Michael Pittman though.
Oh, of course.
Yeah.
You know, because I, I think he goes to Pittsburgh here, and it's weird because I, I like Alec Pierce more than Michael Pittman.
Clearly the Colts like Alec Pierce more than Michael Pittman.
But I think there's a pretty good chance that Michael Pittman has the better fantasy year next year than Alec Pierce.
I think the Steelers are gonna be more pass heavy under Mike McCarthy than they were under Arthur Smith calling the plays.
I think, you know, adding He, he's got less target competition.
It's just him or DK Metcalf, and DK Metcalf has never been a guy that was a massive volume earner, right?
You know, DK Metcalf's game had been about touchdowns and about, you know, kind of the big plays.
But Michael Pittman is somebody that's had at least 80 receptions for the last five years.
He's never been a big touchdown threat, although last year Pittman gets seven touchdowns.
And so, you know, even if the touchdowns regress and he's like, whatever, he's four or five or something like that, I just think, think he's gonna be a solid, you know, wide receiver three bordering on wide r- low end wide receiver two in PPR.
I think he's in the, you know, 24 to 30 range, you know, as a wide receiver.
I just, you know, it's, it's him and DK Metcalf, right?
And we'll talk about the running backs in a second here, but I think, you know, it's him and DK Metcalf and whatever, Friar Moore.
But I, I think Pittman's gonna get a big target share on what should be a much more pass happy offense than we saw last year under Arthur Smith.
Mike McCarthy has generally been a He certainly was very pass happy with the Cowboys, and with the Packers he was a little bit more, a little bit more balanced.
but, you know, and it obviously depends on whether Aaron Rodgers comes back or not.
Right.
But, yeah, I mean I do I just think, I think, I think he's gonna be, you know, a, like a mid-tier wide receiver three that could border, like in the right situation could wind up, you know, wide receiver 22-ish.
You know, again, low end wide receiver 24, low end wide receiver two.
So he's in that range.
