Polymarket Betting on FIFA World Cup Favorites & Outsiders
Donnie Rightside and Joe Raineri break down the FIFA World Cup betting trends on Polymarket: France, Spain, England, and Brazil are drawing high wagers.
Video Transcript
On Polymarket right now, Joe, picking the FIFA World Cup winner.
Did you know $963- Oof million in that market already before the World Cup has even begun?
France is the favorite, 18%.
Spain, 16%, followed by England, the only double-digit chance at 11% here.
France has around $25 million in volume.
Spain, right around 20.
England, around 16 here, Joe.
Impressive market and a lot of money behind it.
Well, listen, I, I think the market tells you most likely France, Spain, kind of, you know, those are gonna be at the top of the board, and we know that at those prices right now.
Mm-hmm.
But if you're looking for value, I don't know, Argentina or Portugal, right now, we know France and Spain are gonna be the chalk, but you got a defending championship pedigree here with Argentina.
The path, Donny, eh, you know, the group that they have to come out of, this is another thing to consider when betting these markets.
It's not about, well, is this team good enough to win?
Is their path good enough, for them and easy enough, that warrant the price here?
I think if Messi is healthy and available, which we're hearing he is, call me crazy, I, I think they might have a shot here.
But don't forget, Donny, these markets, we're not betting outcomes.
We're betting the repricing of the market- Yes as the World Cup goes on.
Keep that in mind when we're talking about these.
I'm gonna give you a question, Joe, that I need to be answered.
There's one nation out there that leads the way with marketing right now, which means how much money's being pumped into them.
Mm-hmm.
$31.5 million.
Who is that, Joe?
What nation?
I would say US.
Is it the US right now- Could be the US that's trying to oversell this?
Oh, wow.
Okay.
It's the United States currently trading at 2% right now as a chance.
But you know what I'm even more You, you slide it down, a lot of countries have a lot of money on it.
There's a team currently trading right now on your contract of 4 cents, Joe.
South Korea- Wow has $23.3 million invested in them right now.
Money's moving all around, and as Joe points out, you don't have to win the World Cup.
Maybe just a round one victory here in your first game propels that ticket from 4 cents up to 1.4 cents, and you're profitable at that point here.
Also on Polymarket, Joe, which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Europe, monstrous favorite, 73% chance here.
South America, 21%.
North America, Joe, 2% here.
So you're gonna get, what, Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
$100 investment pays back $3,890 there.
Well, a lot of correlation or hedging- Yep in this market, right?
Because if you like- Mm-hmm let's say France or England, right, or Spain, well, all right, so you're gonna go, you know, you're, you're not gonna back it over Europe.
If you wanted to hedge out, though, Donny, and you, you're worried- Sure about the Argentinas or the Brazils of the world, guess what?
At that price, for, South America may not be a bad look there.
Goal scorer, who's gonna lead the way?
Who's gonna be in the back of the net more than not?
The favorite right now, Joe, Mbappe at an 18%.
Harry Kane, plays for the Three Lions over there, 15%.
Erling Haaland, who scores left and right in EPL- Yes seems like every single game, 8%, Joe.
How about that?
Any- And by the way, Ronaldo popping up there with 6%.
How about that?
I like Haaland.
I, I'm with you.
I think you nailed it there.
Listen, we know Harry Kane, even Harry Kane at that price, though, is kind of crazy when you think about it there.
Mbappe is gonna be your favorite as well.
He should.
but I think Erling Haaland is interesting because Norway has maybe the softest group and path, uh- Yeah of any of those guys.
And, I mean, call me crazy.
If he can get two or three girl, two or three, goals early in the, in the group stage, that price is gonna get crushed, Donny.
That's gonna go through the roof.
So buy in now on him strictly because I think he's- Yeah got the easiest path coming out of that group.
By the way, Mbappe is the favorite here.
I keep scrolling down, like, a- again, I'm not too fluent on the roster for the United States, but I know- Yeah a couple of the players there.
I don't think I see anybody listed here on Team USA.
Like, I know g- like, Vinicius is on here.
Dembele is on here.
even Luis Suarez is listed on there.
Is that guy, like, 60 years old, still playing in the World Cup?
I don't s- like- Yep.
W- where's my guy Pulisic?
No Pulisic, Joe?
No, no, it's a wrong decade- Come on for that.
yeah, no.
Yeah.
I am not, Yeah, don't, don't spend a whole lot of time figuring.
It's gotta be a group effort for Team USA if they're gonna get out of the group stages and actually make it, to the fun part of the tournament.
Yeah, Haaland to take it down, Joe, right now.
His eight perc- his 8 cents here on the contract, $100 investment will pay back- Buy it $955.
World Cup, it's coming soon.
Certainly keep you invested here on Predicting Markets, and we got more hot topics on a Wednesday right here on the Sports Grid Network.
Join us after this short break
