The Pros and Cons of the Cubs Trading for Kevin Gausman
The Cubs upgraded their starting rotation without sacrificing top prospects, but Kevin Gausman's recent struggles raise questions about what they can expect.
Video Transcript
The Chicago Cubs made a trade on Sunday night, adding to the starting rotation.
They've acquired two-time All-Star Kevin Gausman from the Toronto Blue Jays in a deal.
Gausman has over 2,000 career innings pitched, over 2,000 strikeouts, and in 2026, five and 10 with a 4.38 ERA.
He also brings a ton of playoff experience to the table with a 3.83 ERA over 56 innings in his playoff career, made two quality starts for the Blue Jays in the 2025 World Series.
Now, this might not have been the marquee addition that Tarik Skubal would have been or, maybe quite as big as Cubs fans were hoping for Jed Hoyer to take a swing.
But Hoyer is pretty sure to stay busy on Monday in the hours leading up to the deadline, and there is a ton of merit in bringing in a player like Gausman.
So before the Cubs make more trades, I wanna take some time to go over the pros and the cons of the Kevin Gausman deal.
Now, the most obvious pro to me is the return.
The Cubs sent two prospects back to the Blue Jays, Ty Salthessine and Brett Bateman.
They are the number 13 and number 21 prospects in the Cubs organization respectively.
Neither player in their top 10, and each of them have 20 grade power.
So while they put up good numbers in the minor leagues in 2026, it gives both of these prospects a rather limited offensive ceiling.
So Hoyer managed to upgrade the starting rotation here with a proven arm, All-Star upside, and he didn't have to dip into the organization's top prospects, which leaves the door open for future trades.
That's a big plus.
As for Gausman, the durability is a major plus as well.
The Cubs have been haunted by pitching injuries this year, last year.
Gausman is about as reliable as it gets.
He made at least 31 starts every year from 2021 to 2025.
He's thrown more than 180 innings in four of the last five seasons.
And in 2026, he's made an MLB high 23 starts, completing at least six innings, 13 different times.
If he continues to perform close to the 4.38 ERA he has so far in 2026, at the very least, the Cubs are getting depth and durability in the starting rotation that has been lacking both.
That alone is worth the prospects that they gave up.
Gausman is also a low walk pitcher, forces the ball in play a lot, doesn't allow free passes.
And with this Cubs defense behind him, that should bode well for him.
There's plenty of reason to believe a change of scenery will improve his production, especially now that he joins a winning environment.
However, there are some drawbacks.
There are some concerns with Kevin Gausman on what his performance might look like for the rest of 2026.
Let's start with, "What have you done for me lately?"
Because over his last 11 starts dating back to the beginning of June, Gausman has a 5.86 ERA and has allowed at least four earned runs six different times.
Location has been a big issue for him.
He's thrown a first pitch strike 62.2% of the time, which is down almost seven percent from his 2025 figure.
The batting average against him is up 43 points.
The slugging percentage against him is up 47 points.
And maybe what I find the most concerning is the off-speed stuff, the splitter and the slider.
The splitter has been Gausman's top pitch for a majority of his career, and while his fastball is playing really well in 2026 in the 96th percentile in fastball run value, the off-speed stuff has been getting hit and the spin rates are down.
Opponents are batting 286 with a 743 slugging percentage against Gausman's slider this season.
That is a massive increase, 153 points up in the slugging department from where it was last year.
The weighted on-base average against the splitter was at 222 in 2025 and is up to 257.
The spin rate on the splitter has dropped by 120 RPMs.
So opposing hitters are also getting the ball in the air more against Gausman.
The pull air percentage is at 17.6%.
That's the second highest mark of Gausman's career, which may not be a recipe for success at Wrigley on days when the wind is blowing out.
We saw that earlier this year.
June 19th, Gausman pitched at Wrigley against the Cubs seven earned runs in two innings.
So these are small drawbacks, but they're reasons why Gausman may not be that All-Star version of himself anymore.
Again, though, given the price, given what the Cubs gave up, he doesn't have to be that All-Star for this to be a house money acquisition that makes the team better.
The question, though, is can Gausman be a frontline starter or nothing more than an innings eater?
Because if he's just an innings eater, the Cubs definitely have more work to do on the starting rotation, and that might not be an answer we have until he finally takes the mound in a Cubs uniform.
Gausman last pitched on Saturday, August 1st, which currently means he's lined up to pitch on August 6th.
That's Thursday.
That's against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The projected matchup there, Kevin Gausman against Jameson Taillon.
Juicy, for Kevin Gausman's first game as a Cub.
