Simms’ mock draft: Commanders trade up for Tate
Chris Simms breaks down the early selections of his 2026 NFL Mock Draft, in which he predicts the Commanders trade up for Ohio State's Carnell Tate and three other Buckeyes go in the top eight.
Video Transcript
Let's get right into it.
That's good.
You got a bingo space, number one.
I don't think you're reinventing the wheel here.
One.
I'm one for one.
Yeah.
We'll all get, we'll all get one- Yeah this year, folks.
Fernando Mendoza, number one to the Raiders.
They have not taken a quarterback in round one since JaMarcus Russell- No in 2007.
That's kind of a sneaky one for a team that has been- Yeah lost for a while.
Right.
That they haven't taken a round one quarterback in that long, but to be fair, Derek Carr- Yeah, he held it down though was an adequate starter for a long time.
You're right.
You're right.
So be- They gotta be- I'll be fair to them there.
Yeah, that's right.
There've been other issues.
Yeah.
They, they've had a lot of other issues.
Yes.
You're exactly right.
Just a few.
But, I mean, yeah, duh.
Mendoza, Raiders, Clint Kubiak.
Right.
Makes sense.
We know that.
We don't gotta talk about that a whole lot.
He fits the system, and we'll see what happens, you know?
I still say, like, if he outperforms Kirk- Kirk- Kir- Kirk Cousins in OTAs and training camp, he will be the starter day one.
I think that's still a real- I think he will possibility.
Yeah.
I, I'm excited- I hope so for Fernando Mendoza with the Raiders.
Me too.
And this offense, I- Totally I think he's gonna I think, to your point, guys in camp, when they make a throw or they do this, everyone's looking around like, "Oh- They're gonna go, "Oh when is this guy gonna play?"
Exactly right.
Right.
Exactly.
All right, number two is when the party gets started.
That's when it gets started.
There's been a lot of debate over this now, especially the last two weeks.
I got no inside info here.
I'm just- Okay going, you know?
I don't know here.
Okay.
Yeah.
you had a 48-hour span where we've said some of the biggest insiders, Daniel Jeremiah, Albert Breer- Yeah Todd McShay, Peter Schrager, all pivoted to David Bailey.
Yes.
I didn't agree with that, and neither do you.
No.
You think it's Arval Willis too.
I, I think it's Arval Willis.
I, I do.
I just think at the end of the day, when it gets down to it, they're gonna look at it and go, "He's just too good of a football player.
He's too good of a football player in general, and his high-end dra- rush ability is the greatest in the draft.
He just hasn't done it enough," which was the same kind of questions we heard about Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter a little bit because they were moved around so much.
So I just have no doubt about it.
Again, I have no inside feel here.
And I certainly can understand them going David Bailey.
Maybe they just want somebody to go, "Hey, we know this guy can do this.
We need this position.
It's just more, you know, concrete.
We feel warm and cozy about him- Yeah being over there," instead of the learning curve Arval might have to re- learn as far as an edge rusher, which I don't think is gonna be much.
But I'm going Arval Willis here, Jets number two.
They should be happy about it.
I would be happy about it.
I'm gonna be happy about it, even though I'm not a Jets fan, if Arval Willis is here in town.
I did what you did.
Yeah.
Sometimes you just apply logic when you don't know.
Okay, what makes sense?
What makes sense is Arval Willis is amazing.
When that many people sometimes say it, to me, I, I go- Like- that sounds like- Siren you're gazy.
A little.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You know, every now and then there's one where I go, "Ooh, wait, I know he knows this team a little bit, and so does this guy.
Okay, I- there's two guys doing this."
But when it becomes, like, five or six guys all do it in the same week, that makes me think that somebody threw out some bullshit out there, and that, you know, they took it.
And I'm not saying they, I'm right or wrong, I'm just, that's, that's what I questioned a little bit.
You know what's funny for the David Bailey argument?
Like, we know he can rush the passer.
Yeah.
It I get that.
But the Jets front seven was so bad last year.
I know Arval Willis can be a game-wrecking linebacker.
Totally.
And you Nobody says that.
No.
They're just like, "Ah, he's this project on the edge."
No, he's an absolute disruptor- Unbelievable in the front seven.
He's as good of a middle linebacker as we've seen, like, I don't even know when.
That's what I don't under- So that- Yeah that's where I look at it.
And they got big D tackles this year to where, yeah, even if he doesn't play pass rusher every down, he's gonna be one of the best middle linebackers in football with a totally different Jets front up there- Right to where he's gonna be free and be able to just go get the ball.
All right, so the Cardinals at three.
Yeah.
This is one- Yeah that really a lot of people think the draft starts here.
There's been debate at two, but three with the Cardinals is probably the biggest, like, mystery across the board.
I, I feel like everybody just puts whoever, whoever the Jets don't take, that's who they're taking.
It's either Arval Willis or- David Bailey or David Bailey.
Yeah.
And I, I can understand that.
I, I'm gonna go with Jeremiah Love though.
Jeremiah Love, pick number three.
First off, I look at the Arizona Cardinals.
Who's their head coach right now?
Oh, Mike LaFleur.
Mike LaFleur's a run game expert.
He l- he's from Shanahan, McVay, his own brother, who had traded to get Josh Jacobs, right, up in Green Bay.
They believe in running backs.
As you've said from the start, Jeremiah Love is, if he's not the best player in the draft, he's one of the three best players in the draft.
I think it's just gonna be too good for them to pass up.
They might go pass rusher.
I can understand that.
I, I can.
But I also go like, damn, we drafted a defensive lineman in the first round last year, and we drafted a defensive lineman in the first round the year before.
So that's when I got into it and I really thought about it.
I went, man, the, they, they got some good receivers, but their best player on offense is a tight end.
They need somebody else that can do And, like, Jeremiah Love can do it all, as we know.
He could be Marshall Faulk.
My dad says he reminds him of Gale Sayers.
Oh, wow.
Right?
I mean, so- Got the throwback feel, huh?
Right, a throwback, right.
I love that.
But, but, but yes.
Also that's almost a big praise.
This is my heart making curve- Yeah of the draft, but I just look at it and I feel like it makes a little too much sense, and I think everybody's kinda chalking this Arval Willis, David Bailey, two, three, too much right now.
I heard a lot of this at the combine.
Yeah.
And then none of it after.
Huh.
And now this week it's popped back up, which is interesting.
It's in Well, Schefter put out a tweet this morningThat all of a sudden, he, the Cardinals seem like Jeremiah Love is in play at number three.
And so when Schefter says it, I always pop up because Schefter does not say stuff like that- No unless he's heard it from somebody, truly credible there.
A little bias from me, but I also think of when LaFleur was calling plays, that 2022 Jets team started seven and four.
It was on the back of Breece Hall.
Exactly.
The back of Breece Hall.
Yes.
And then he got hurt.
Yep.
And the Jets finished with seven wins.
I, that, that's where I, I believe he believes in running backs.
Yeah.
And the, you know, they're, they're, they're not gonna get their franchise quarterback or anything right here.
No.
I think this is the second-best thing.
You wanna change your team around, make your offense more explosive, Jeremiah Love can certainly do that.
All right, so the Titans- Yeah here at four.
Yeah.
We, we are eye to eye on the first four picks in this draft.
Number four, Robert Saleh gets another pass rusher like he often does in David Bailey.
I mean, if, if they go, if the Cardinals go Jeremiah Love, I think Robert Saleh's gonna run to the, and go, "What?
Yeah.
I mean, now I got m- my two pass rushers that are studs like I did in my prime, you know, in Seattle or with the 49ers."
Right.
So I, I think that's what I look at and go, yeah, there's an issue there.
You know, O- Oladejo, right, who they drafted out of UCLA last year, I like him.
He got hurt.
He tore his Achilles.
I don't know how much of a real pass rusher he is for the Saleh scheme anyways, but yeah, I just look at that.
Now, I could see them going Sonny Styles.
I wouldn't be shocked.
Be his Fred Warner.
It's Fred Warner.
Yeah.
It's Bobby Wagner.
Yeah.
I mean, th- that defense, more than a lot of defenses, is, is awesome when they have a middle linebacker that's a freak show, right?
There's a reason, like, the Seattle scheme always has freak show middle linebackers, 'cause they gotta do maybe a little bit more athletically than in some other defenses.
So I could see that, but I think the pass rusher thing is just too great to pass up, and I think they'll go Bailey on the edge.
Going through what coaches know is really important.
Yeah.
A couple years ago, I did not know the Jets were drafting Sauce Gardner.
Yeah.
Like, that was one of the more blindsided times I've been.
And then after, you know, a lot of people were like, that were close to it were like, "Saleh watched him and said this is the Richard Sherman- Exactly of their defense."
And he was right.
He was right.
Sauce was great, and was their Richard Sherman for the defense.
Yeah.
It was other problems.
David Bailey, of course, he always collects pass rushers, but I wonder your point about Styles being the Fred Warner.
I know.
That's right.
Always going back to, like, okay, where were my defenses best?
What guy do I need?
But I would still default to the pass rusher, because- I would think so, too Saleh's found middle linebackers later on and turned them into- That, that is what That is the only reason I gave him the pass rusher.
I said he found Dre Greenlaw in whatever, what was it, the sixth round?
Yep.
He, I mean, he found- Quincy Williams off waivers Aziz El Shaair undrafted.
Right.
Right?
I mean- Look at last year.
Exactly.
The Niners are playing a different linebacker every week.
With Bethune.
I'm like, "This guy looks awesome."
They got Bethune- Dude who's awesome.
Yeah.
Exactly right.
So that ex- that is why I did it.
That was exactly This was the first pick where I was like, "Ooh, I don't know."
Yeah.
And then I went, Saleh will find a gem later on.
Saleh will draft, my guy Justin Jefferson in the third or fourth round.
That's the exact kind of player he would take.
And then he kind of Exactly right.
All right.
That's what made me go the edge.
Five, the Commanders.
Yeah.
Now, because- I'm trading you have a trade- I am with the Gi- This is the first time I was like Yeah.
What?
You said Commanders, and you were like, "Wait, they're not number five."
Yeah.
Hold on.
Commanders trade with the Giants.
Mm-hmm.
One, do you think this can happen?
One, I think this can happen- Like, what is the thought on division to division trades?
I, well, th- that's, that would be the only thing that made me slow down a little bit here, but, you know, I think that will the Giants be willing to trade with the Commanders?
Yes, if they know that they're gonna not take the player that they want.
And I think with the Commanders, and the biggest reason I have them taking, going to number five, is one, I think their biggest need on their team is they need a receiver.
Terry McLaurin's at a age, and we saw him last year, he couldn't play the full year.
If he's off, or if he's hurt again this year, it's like they don't have anybody.
No.
You got Jaden Daniels, and you got nothing to help him.
So I, I feel like they're gonna sit there and go, "The Browns might take Carnell Tate.
We need a for sure, definite guy that can help us out this year."
Listen, you know I don't think Carnell Tate's worth the fifth pick of the draft, but it seems that's the way he's going- Yeah in this NFL draft.
That's gonna happen.
He's going in the top 10 somewhere, and I feel like the Commanders need somebody that they know can work right now, and I think they'll be worried, because the Browns need a receiver too, and they're going, "Oh, the Browns are gonna take, the Ohio guy," since they're in Ohio.
And this was my first one where I went, ooh, I think this could make sense here, and so I made the trade happen.
Commanders jump from seven to five with the Giants.
Yep.
They get their guy in Carnell Tate.
The Browns stay put at six for who, Chris?
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the left tackle Monroe Freeling.
Now, I, I Listen, the Browns was a hard one for me.
I mean, not that it was hard.
I, I'm sure, and this is why we've heard about, and we've seen, like, the mocks you brought up about them trading down, because they probably don't wanna take a tackle at pick six.
It just, it just feels a little early.
A little early, but I still look at it and go, they need it.
And to me, Freeling is definitely the most ready NFL I can start right now left tackle, and that's where I'm gonna go with that.
I don't think they can rely on DeJuan Jones over there anymore.
They need somebody, right, who, yes, health-wise, can do all the things that this new offense is gonna want.
They need a guaranteed this-is-gonna-work type of guy.
And to me, Freeling is the man, because I, I have l- very few questions about him as a pure pass-protecting left tackle.
The buzz for Freeling going top 10 picked up a little after the combine, so.
I think he's just, like, he's the one that's just the cleanest, and you're gonna have the least questions about.
He might not have the highest ceiling, but I think he's a guy that at the end of the day we're gonna go, "No, no, we, we can start him day one."
He played like a pro at Georgia, he blocked pros at Georgia, and we feel like he can do that again here for us in Cleveland.
So the Giants- Yeah back on the clock now, 'cause they moved out of five to seven with the Commanders.
The big question is, Chris- Yeah which Ohio State defender are the Giants going to take?
I have them going Sonny Styles here.
Now, it's, it's, I, I hear you.
The Caleb Downs thing is certainly, you know, was in my mind, and I thought about it to a degree.
But I just feel like-I like the value of the s- the linebacker position more than the safety, and I look at a guy like Sonny Stiles and just go, "Man, middle linebackers like this just, they don't come around that often," to where I just go, he's, he's too talented, he's young, he's still a m- a, a piece of clay that you can mold.
And we saw, and we, you and I both waxed poetically about how much better he got during the year last year, to where that, that to me was the biggest thing.
So I can understand the safety one, but I also look at it and go, "Damn, they got Tyler Newbill who they drafted in the second round."
Right.
"They got Javon Holland, who they gave a lot of money to."
Right.
Right?
The linebacker position, you put this guy with Tremaine Edmunds in the middle of the field, and I go, "Yeah, watch out.
Have fun with those two freaks running around there."
And the big combo with the Giants right now is this, how is this run defense gonna compete?
Yes.
And obviously Sonny Stiles would go a long way for that.
Totally.
Little pop quiz: who was the last linebacker drafted in round one by the Giants?
Ooh.
This is I think it's way back.
I laughed when I saw the answer.
It, it, it's, is it Carl Banks?
It is Carl Banks.
Good job, Chris.
I, I had a feeling you were gonna go there.
1984.
Yeah, yeah.
He was the third overall pick.
Michigan State.
I mean, obviously that one worked out.
It did.
Well, Carl, Carl Banks, you know, he's not in the Hall of Fame.
He's borderline a Hall of Fame football player.
Yeah.
He is absolutely a Giants legend and one of the best linebackers that ever played for the Giants.
I mean, he was phenomenal.
People, if you go back and watch the 1986 playoffs when the Giants went to go win the Super Bowl, you, you, you certainly can make a case that Carl Banks probably played better football than Lawrence Taylor, who was the MVP of the football that year, right?
Banks was a hell of a player.
but man, that's amazing that it's been that long since they get a linebacker.
Truly wild.
Yeah.
All right, number eight, the Saints are on the clock here, Chris.
This is one where there's not a lot of noise around the Saints.
The Saints is as quiet as hell, right?
Yeah, which is always interesting when a team's lying in the weeds.
I think I And I wanna confirm, I saw something that the Saints are one of the rare teams, they don't draft guys they do visits with.
I, I, they, that could be.
I need to, I need to check that out again while you're talking through this pick.
But it was- I thought receiver a little.
Yeah, the same.
That, that's the only buzz that's out there a little bit.
So you go, like, will, would they take a Jordan Tyson at the at, at, at eight?
I, I don't know.
All right?
So I, I certainly, to hear it was between receiver.
You know, I did think pass rusher as well.
The Saints are, to me, one of the keys to the draft here right now, 'cause I feel like they can go a different, a few different ways.
You could look at m- pass rusher, you could look at wide receiver, and of course, you could look at the safety position, which I did, and that's where I'm gonna go Caleb Downs here at pick number eight to the New Orleans Saints.
Brandon Staley, the defensive coordinator, right, he gets a guy that can be kind of his Derwin James for his defense.
the safety position, yeah, Justin Reed's up there in age.
It's, it's He's on the downslope of his career, right?
Jonah Sanker, is okay, but I don't know if he's He's not in the class of Caleb Downs.
Right.
So that's where ultimately I'm gonna just say it's too, too much value there for them to pass him up at pick number eight.
All right.
So Caleb Downs still makes it into the top 10.
Obviously, he's in the combo with that Giants pick as well.
I know, yeah.
Saints can go in a lot of different re- directions.
Let's recap picks one through eight before we move on to the Chiefs.
Fernando Mendoza goes number one, of course, overall.
Arval Reece goes two.
Jeremiah Love thr- Jeremiah Love three to the Cardinals.
David Bailey goes four to the Titans.
The Commanders trade up to five to take Carnell Tate.
The Browns take Monroe Freeling, the tackle from Georgia.
The Giants take Sonny Stiles, they get their linebacker from Ohio State.
And then the Saints take Caleb Downs, who is, just seems to be loved by everyone- But it's- But everyone's like, "But where?"
Whe- that this, this is I, I feel like Caleb Downs, and I feel like this could happen at the safety position altogether, where there is a part of me, like, we've joked so many times about everybody said Derwin James was one of the three best players in the draft, and there we were at pick 18 and he was still available.
Yep.
I, I, I would not be shocked if that happened with Caleb Downs.
I would not be shocked if we were sitting there a- a- and like the board just didn't fall right- And you just can't believe he's there and all of a sudden he's there at like 19 or 20.
I really wouldn't.
I think it's, it, it is like that, and it's because of the position a little bit and all that.
You're right.
So it, it's hard to figure it out, but I'm gonna say the Saints take him at eight.
