Skenes 'should get better' despite struggles
Eric Samulski examines what's behind Paul Skenes' recent struggles, highlighting why some of it can be attributed to back luck and how several numbers under the surface offer hope moving forward.
Video Transcript
It was another disappointing start for Paul Skenes on Wednesday as the Pirates ace allowed three runs on two hits in five innings against the Brewers while walking four and striking out six.
He now has a 6.25 ERA and a 155 whip, in 31 and two-thirds innings in July, with 42 strikeouts.
In this outing, Skenes' four-seam fastball averaged 97.1 miles per hour, which is still down from about 98 and a half miles an hour that he averaged last year.
And the four-seamer has been a big talking point for Skenes.
However, it did have a 16% swinging strike rate in this outing, and it has a 17% swinging strike rate on the season, so the four-seam fastball is still missing tons of bats.
Skenes has added vertical movement on it this year at the cost of some arm-side run, but he's using the four-seam fastball up more in the zone, and that's allowing him to get more whiffs.
But four-seam fastballs up in the zone do lead to more home runs, and so the homer to fly ball rate on that pitch has gone up this year.
The four-seam fastball up in the zone may also be hurting some of the effectiveness of his secondaries because, hitters are not offering as much at those secondaries.
They're not chasing as much outside of the zone.
So perhaps the fact that Skenes is attacking with the four-seamer up in the zone is creating more pitch separation and less tunneling that's allowing hitters to see some of those secondary pitches because the sweeper sing- swinging strike rate is below average.
The changeup swinging strike rate, which is still really good, is down 4% from last year.
Is there may be a nagging injury for Skenes that has led to some of the four-seam fastball velocity decline and also some less pristine command of the secondary pitches?
That's something that we just, we don't really know until it's announced.
He's getting behind in the count far more than average.
But there's also some bad luck here.
He has a .309 BABIP.
He has a 16.3% homer to fly ball rate.
Those things feel unlucky.
Some of the other surface level, b- numbers below the surface are actually good.
His swinging strike rate is the same as last year.
His putaway rate in two-strike counts is better than last year.
His average exit velocity allowed is still 87 miles an hour.
His barrel rate is only up 1% from last year, and his expected ERA is 2.92.
So we keep saying things should get better for Skenes.
I know they haven't, but things should get better for Skenes, even if he's not the top three starter that we thought he was coming into the season.
