SMU’s Rhett Lashlee BLASTS the pre-season strength of schedule rankings: “There’s literally NO data”
Back towards the end of July, ESPN released their pre-season FPI rankings along with strength of schedule. With Arkansas at the top of the list in strength of schedule, this got some people thinking, "How do they already know Arkansas has the toughest schedule?" Rhett Lashlee, took to social media to say there is no data to formulate this months before the season starts. Rhett's tweet here: https://x.com/rhettlashlee/status/2082676399148597530?s=20Watch here as Andy & Ari are joined by the SMU head coach to discuss pre-season rankings along with what he would do to fix this issue. What are your thoughts?0:00 On Today's Episode0:35 Presenting Sponsor2:37 Intro: Previewing Rhett Lashlee4:11 Rhett Lashlee joins10:05 SMU's success since joining the ACC18:53 Playing Florida State in Week One20:30 QB Kevin Jennings returning for the Mustangs23:10 Rhett Lashlee's Car24:33 Closing out with Rhett Lashlee26:38 Who Am I?37:06 Dear Andy & Ari, pick historic QBs to play in a different era48:23 Do coaches receive too much credit?54:37 Steve Sarkisian side of the coin56:57 Which teams are liable to regress?1:07:25 Thanks for watching!After Rhett Lashlee, it's time for this week's "Who Am I?" How many clues does it take for Ari to guess this Heisman Trophy winner? The results may shock you.Next up, it's time for Dear Andy & Ari. Some great questions from our listeners....Pick historic QBs to play in a different eraDo coaches receive too much credit?Which teams are options to regress?Our show is presented by Polymarket!New User Offer: Deposit $10, get $20 upon sign uphttps://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/ON3Trade on College Football games every week on Polymarket. Download the Polymarket App with code ON3 for a $20 bonus upon sign up.18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirement apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur.Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/joinSubscribe to On3! ⬇️ youtube.com/on3sports/?sub_confirmati...Welcome to On3 | The best of college football and recruiting https://www.on3.com/Listen to Andy & Ari On3 on podcast!Spotify 🎧: https://open.spotify.com/show/5AhQ4d2m5TQu5Q2vkwtxjt?si=d9016221aa2a4427Apple 🍎: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/andy-staples-on3/id1695325427Follow Andy & Ari On3 on X! https://x.com/AndyAriOn3 Follow Andy Staples on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Andy_StaplesFollow Andy Staples on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andy_staplesFollow Ari Wasserman on Twitter: https://x.com/AriWassermanFollow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/on3sportsFollow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/on3/Like/Follow us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/On3Sports/Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River BaileyInterested in partnering with the show? Email advertise@on3.com
Video Transcript
On today's episode of Andy and Ariana three presented by Polly market, SMU coach Rhett Lashley joins the show to explain why none of us should be talking about strength of schedule when nobody's played a game.
Plus, we've got another edition of the game that is sweeping the nation.
It's who am I?
And your questions, dear Andy, dear Ari, some great ones.
We're going to have some surprise teams this year.
So that means they're going to win more.
Who might lose more to make up for the teams that win more?
Somebody's got to go down if somebody's going up.
We'll talk about it all on today's Andy and Ariana three presented by Polly market.
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Welcome to Andy and Ari on three presented by Polly market.
Ari, we are here in the studio in Nashville.
We're going to do a little time traveling.
We were Columbus, Ohio on Thursday.
And then we also, while in Columbus, connected with our friend, Red Lashley, the head coach at SMU, because Red had something on his mind and tweeted it out the other day.
And I said, "Red, we got to talk about this on the show."
And so this was the time Red could join us was on Thursday while we were in Columbus.
It is the first time I think that a college football podcast has done an interview with the head coach while inside another one's building, right?
No, it's definitely not the first.
I've done it because I I video one.
I definitely so I don't remember what coach we were talking to.
But when I interviewed John Summeral in his office at Florida, shortly before that, I interviewed another coach for the show in a different room in Florida's football.
Yeah.
And a special thank you to Ohio State for being so gracious.
Yes.
Will Pantages.
I'm the sports information director of Ohio State, one of the best in the business replacing, one of the best in the business, Jerry Eamig, but Will's doing a great job and was incredibly helpful to us.
So we had a blast, but Red, I love Red because he's honest every time he thinks about this stuff, he cares about this stuff.
And so the second I saw that tweet, I texted him, I'm like, "We got to get you on the show when he said absolutely."
And so here is Red Lashley.
And here we go.
We are honored to be joined by Red Lashley, SMU head coach and Red sent a tweet last week.
In the moment he sent it, I texted him, I said, "You got to come on the show and talk about this."
Because, Red, you were talking about the schedule of strength component and all of these different advanced rankings that we see before every season.
And you're like, "Guys, nobody's played a game yet.
How do we know if anybody's actually got a hard schedule yet?"
And I wanted to ask you because you got a team where you brought back most of what you had last year.
Obviously Kevin Jennings has been your quarterback for a while.
So you probably know more than most coaches about your team.
But do you even have an idea of how good your team is at this point, starting camp this week?
Yeah, I mean, nobody truly knows, right?
And that would have been the way it was 10 years ago, but now in this world of transfer portal and all the roster turnover at a different level.
Every team is just, it just changes quicker than it used to.
And so I just think it's unique that, look, I'm a college football fan almost as much as I am a part of it.
I got to love college football.
I've always loved it.
So, look, preseason polls, I voted in the coaches' polls.
There's going to be an AP pullout.
You guys get on your show and everybody does so much to create excitement and generate predictions.
And that stuff's awesome.
That's what makes our game fun and great.
But when we start crossing over into FPI or Strength of Schedule, things that are going to determine who gets in the playoffs.
And we want to say we know these 20 teams have the hardest strength of schedule.
It's impossible.
Like no offense to Arkansas.
They can't have the hardest strength of schedule in America to start the season because no one's played a game.
We don't even know who's good.
So we don't know what a good and an easy schedule is right now.
And so that's to me, but no one ever questions it.
No one ever says, hey, why do we act like last year matters for this year?
Because it doesn't.
Now, if they had to come out and say, hey, we're predicting this based on last year's results cool, but that still has nothing to do with this year.
And it's interesting because it does change as the year goes on.
And like that metric will change and the FPI and with all the other things that the committee uses, it'll change, but you're right.
There is this sort of baked in thought of we've decided who the hardest schedules are.
Well, then the humans in the room are going to maybe remember that.
The same thing also happens in rankings because we have preseason rankings.
And when you play other teams that are in the top 15, even if they aren't a top 15 team, it kind of bolsters your resume, which puts you in a place that is higher ranked.
And then you might also not be very good.
And then it kind of like, it's kind of a hard thing to do.
But I also think that it's hard to be in a world where we don't have any perception at all or at least attempt at all to know where people stand before the season starts.
I was like, how would you fix it, Rhett?
Well, again, I don't there's nothing wrong with creating buzz and excitement.
And everybody having their preseason top 25 or predicting the playoffs.
Like that's that's awesome.
So it makes our sport great.
But to your point, like the playoff committee, the people actually are going to select the 12 teams.
Don't even release their polls till eight weeks into the season.
Why?
Well, because obviously that takes eight weeks to figure out who's actually good.
Let's give, let's get some data points.
And so I think to your point, Andy, the challenge is when you come out, begin into the year and you're on a platform like ESPN and you keep dropping the FBI and you only put SEC teams in there.
Well, like it just creates a natural bias in the human element is still real.
And so you create, it's no different than like this is weird.
This may sound really weird.
But when you go to college, right, we all know that you have four exams in the semester.
All four exams are weighted equally.
So for some reason, it shouldn't matter if you make a good grade on the first one or the last one and a bad grade on the first one or the last one.
But we all know what you do on that first exam sets the tone for the whole semester.
And if you make a 50 on the first exam, it's a lot harder to climb your grade back up versus if you make a 90 on the first exam, you're in a better position.
I don't know why it works that way.
I'm not smart enough to understand that kind of math.
But it does.
And it's so different than if you start the season saying, well, this is the, this is the bias to start the season.
Then it's so much easier to overcome that or harder to overcome that, depending on where you are in the pecking or what.
And we just don't know.
You guys had an effect on this last year, this very thing because so Miami beats Notre Dame in week one.
That's a big win.
And they beat like they want on the field.
So if you're comparing the two, that's a comparison point that's stronger than others.
But because Miami had just lost to you guys when they did that first ranking, they lost to Louisville and then they lost to you guys, they were, they went on like eight spots below Notre Dame in that first ranking because of the, that happened to be the weekend that they did it.
Two years ago, we got into playoffs and we beat like three ranked teams.
We beat Louisville on the road.
We beat pit at home.
There was someone else before the playoff rankings came out.
Well, when the playoff ranking came out, we had no ranked wins.
But we beaten three top 25 teams earlier in the year.
So which one, you know what I'm saying?
And so, yeah, the whole idea is, let's just, let's just call it like it is.
There's nothing wrong with it being out there.
But let's not say SMU has the easiest schedule in the ACC or the hardest schedule in the ACC.
Nobody's thinking knows like last year, nobody had Virginia playing for the conference championship and Duke.
And so if they were on your schedule at the beginning of the year, you had an easy schedule.
By the end of the year, you had a diagram hard schedule.
So it's just, that was my home point for it.
Now the good thing you guys alike, I'm taking the entire month off of social media.
So I've been off for like a week.
So I really don't know what's going on after I put that tweet out.
Yeah, I miss much.
Yeah.
Not much, not much has happened.
You know, the other thing I wonder too is a lot of college football perception is based on results over a period of time.
And I think part of the reason why we see the SEC so high up in the FBI and the strength of scheduling numbers is because they spent 20 years winning the national championship most of the time.
And I wonder if, you know, teams like Miami make it to the national championship.
And SMU makes it again to the playoff.
And the results continue to vary more than they did during that 20 year period where polls and championship games and stuff were first really indoctrinated into the sport.
I wonder if preseason numbers or preseason projections are sway back in the other direction like a pendulum.
It's already started in like the thought process.
I think the SEC feels like it has a lot to prove right now.
You know, the ACC played in the national championship.
What if they do it again?
Like I wonder how much time has to pass in order to change these perceptions of who we believe is going to be good.
Obviously environment and recruiting rankings and those things play into it, but that, but recruiting rankings now less than ever.
So do you do you find that the ACC has a responsibility to show that those preseason things are wrong before they're, you know, respected in the way that you'd probably like to see it?
Yeah, I mean, I think you bring up a really good point.
So look, teams that have had success like tick Clemson and Arleague, for example, what they've done over the last 10 or 15 years, they've earned the right to have some, you know, some credibility, some bias and people assume they're going to be good until they're not.
They've earned that.
Okay, we haven't earned that yet as a program.
We're working on it.
Like we're starting to get a deal where every year you expect us to compete for the league and we want to continue to win where we get that kind of benefit of the doubt, if you will.
But to your point, okay, last year, the ACC had a winning record against the SEC.
We had a winning record and we were eight and six against them.
Well, if that, if we're going to, you know, do preseason predictions on strength, the schedule, FPI, because I agree, the SEC is a great lead who has earned that kind of, you know, brand awareness, that kind of expectation of, hey, they're going to be the best league again this year.
But they've got to go out and earn it again every year.
Well, if that's the case, why aren't we starting the season as the projected second best league in America?
Why aren't we getting the benefit of the doubt in the FPI?
Since we beat them more than they beat us last year.
And we're not.
And so here's why it matters.
We start the season with people going, what ACC may just be a one-did league.
But no one ever says that about the SEC or the big 10, but the ACC, well, why based on what?
Based on what?
What evidence of this year?
And so it's like no different than I tell my team, hey guys, what we did last year was great.
It helps us build our program and our brand, but it has nothing to do with this year's team.
It's not going to get us one yard, one point or one win.
We have to go earn it and prove it this year.
And so I just wish there was a way to have all the excitement, but still call it like it is, like, we have no idea who has this hardest strength of schedule this year.
We have no idea.
The FPI can be a predictor.
The strength of schedule can be based on the way teams finish last year.
This is how we project this year.
But I think we all know there's no way all the teams are going to be anything like that we're last year in this transfer portfolio.
Yeah, I think you make a really good point about preseason expectations of who could be a one-bid league, especially considering the fact that you and I are asking whether a team will get a big 10 or the SEC will get five in.
There's a huge discrepancy.
It's not even as bad for you guys as this for the big 12, because I think the automatic assumption is the big 12s, one mid league with with your league, people, okay, well, maybe Miami and SMU or maybe, you know, this team, this team.
But yeah, I'm with you.
It is that probably is the more dangerous assumption.
But in that narrative carries into the human bias throughout the year and then into the committee and other things.
And so it's like I said, you guys are projecting, hey, maybe they're a five-bid league issue.
Maybe they are, but they had a losing record against the ACC last year.
So why are we a potential five-bid league?
But there's one thing that you should take notice of right?
And I don't know, you're off the internet for some reason.
Don't know how you did it.
Congratulations.
Come back soon, please.
We really like interacting with you.
But when people are talking about the ACC and it being a multiple-bid league, potentially, it's like what Andy just said instinctually, which was, well, maybe you have Miami.
Maybe you'll have SMU and why?
Because SMU for the past two years has shown an ability to not only compete on the highest level, but win on the highest level.
You guys are investing in your roster and you're doing the things that are necessary to be viewed in that light.
And I think that in a short amount of time while the ACC might be dragging backwards a little bit in terms of where you think they should be on the national scale, your individual accomplishments and how people view you has been legitimized through what you've already accomplished, which I think is kind of a merit-based thing.
Now, year over year, I agree with you.
But I think the reason why the SEC and the Big Ten get this viewpoint is that there are probably more programs from top to bottom spending a baseline level of money on their rosters and doing the things from a recruiting standpoint that make you perceive that they have more talent than other teams.
So I wonder how much, and I'd be very curious to ask you this, how much of the SMU's individual success do you think is predicated on the success of the ACC and how much do you think those two things are even tied together?
Yeah.
Well, I think you're right.
And again, I'm going to say that SEC and Big Ten over the last decade or whatever happy will since the playoffs started, they've earned the right for all the preseason predictions to weigh heavily more in their favor.
I'm great with that, with you guys thinking they're going to get more teams in than this league.
That's part of it to your point.
That's what we're trying to get our program to, to where we've earned the respect, to where you expect us to be in contention every year.
You expect us to do this.
That's fine.
It's just when it starts to go into metrics that are going to actually weigh in on who does get in.
That's when it crosses our line.
And that's a fair point.
Yeah.
To your question about SMU and the ACC, I think it's what David Miller and our administration said day one when we got into the league.
This is a great day for SMU, but this is a great day for the ACC.
We felt like the ACC clearly was going to give us a huge benefit and it has.
But we also felt like we were going to have value to the ACC.
And I think as having the most wins in our first two years, we got 14 wins in the league in two years.
Nobody has more than 12 after us.
And that's Miami and Clemson.
But yet, that's not talked about.
Again, we have to earn that.
But I think we've added value to the league.
Again, the league's good.
I think, guys, the national runner up last year, who beat two SEC teams and Ohio State in the playoffs, finished in a five-way tie for second in our league.
So you can argue about the tiebreaker all you want.
They still finished in a five-way tie for second.
So that means they were one of the top six teams in the ACC and they played for the national title.
Again, let's let each year be its own standalone year and let the teams be who they are.
And you know what?
Then, we'll know at the end of the year.
We can look back and say that was definitely the best league this year and that was the best teams.
Let's talk about your place in that tie because one of the weird things about college football now is the transfer portal makes some strange bedfellows.
So Kendra Krafial is on your team now.
And last we saw Kendra Krafial in the regular season last year, he was scoring to beat you guys.
How weird is that when your last memory of this guy is no, no, to stop him and then he shows up on your campus in January.
Yeah, he was hurt a little bit and closed this and he came in and touched under a minute of being a bus in the ACC title game last year.
So I guess if you can't beat him, join him.
You know, he fit for us.
He's from four years.
You want to get closer to home, close in the portal.
We were needing to run him back and it just kind of happened that way.
Like when we walked off the field of college and think, man, that guy's going to be our team next year.
And then he's going to be on the other emotions going on.
But boy, he was a good player.
And so it stuff like that, though, when you're going in the portal, get him running back and you see he's in the portal and you're like, wait a minute, we literally just got an up close in personal evaluation.
But that is just what's changed right about college football to your point.
But they just goes back to the point of we don't truly know who's who.
Their best Russia last year is now on our team.
So how does that affect them?
Who knows?
How does that affect us?
Who knows?
That's why, man, have all the excitement.
Let's get four weeks into the season before we start like decide who's got this and who's got that because hopefully Kendra Grafayles, the first team all ACC running back this year.
Well, let's talk schedule period.
You have a very interesting place in the schedule to start because you play Florida State in Tallahassee on Labor Day.
So the whole world is going to be watching SMU football.
How exciting is that?
What kind of opportunity is that?
And how much do you have to make sure you take care of business there?
Yeah.
I mean, obviously we got to play well in the road to start the season.
And to be in a game at Florida State, a program that has earned a lot of the credibility we've talked about over the years.
You know, it's when we went to the ACC, I think this is the kind of stuff we envisioned for our program and for our school is SMU's now back on the national stage.
We're playing, you know, national TV Monday night Labor Day, the only game being played, the last game of the week one of the regular season at Florida State, 90,000 plus fans like conference game like that's the arena we wanted to be in and now we're there.
But it goes back to this.
I mean, think of that last year we saw Florida State open the season and beat Alabama by two touchdowns.
So initially, everybody thinks Florida State's back, Alabama's down.
Well, what happened by the end of the year?
Alabama's in the playoff and Florida State had a bad year.
So look, we need to play well early.
We need to win that game.
If we do, everyone's going to start saying all these great things about us and guess what, we got 10 more, 11 more weeks to play to see if we're any good.
And if we don't win it, we still have 10 or 11 more weeks to prove we're good enough.
So it's a first impression.
It's a great opportunity for our program on the road in conference national stage.
It's a big game.
Honestly, we start the season.
Those first three or four weeks are huge for us.
A great start sure makes it a lot easier to win the ACC and make the playoff.
But it's not, you know, a bad start makes it a lot harder, but it doesn't mean it's impossible.
So it's not all or nothing, but yeah, it's a big game.
Brett, I saw an NFL draft analyst say that he believes that Kevin Jennings has the strongest arm in college football.
I know we've seen him the last few years.
But what are realistic expectations for your quarterback?
I know we think we're familiar with him, but is there a level that we have not seen yet out of him?
I think so.
You know, I think Kevin's race has been really good.
It's been a slow climb.
The whole way he's been, he's continued to get better.
You know, he was better last year than he was two years ago.
Now, because we only won nine games and didn't make the playoff, he played hurt from middle of week two's game all the way throughout the year.
We weren't as good around them.
We didn't run the ball as well.
Like, it may not look that way to people, but like he, an 11 of his 13 games, he had zero or one turnovers.
Like the turnover thing was not an issue last year like it was a year before, but there's other reasons people assume it might be.
Again, he was hobbled, so he couldn't run, which is a big part of his game last year.
We didn't have his good arrest and attack.
We weren't as deep.
We lost 60 or 70% of our production from the year before.
So he really carried us.
And yet, still, we let in all 12 games.
He's not the reason we lost the beta game in the fourth quarter.
We were up to scores.
He's not the reason we lost the TCU game in the fourth quarter.
He is a big reason why we beat Clemson on the road and beat Miami at home.
And so he played really well in that cow game.
So I think what you're going to see is the best version of Kevin.
He's healthy.
He's 15 to 20 pounds heavier since he came in as a freshman.
He's obviously more experienced a third year starter, fifth year player in college football is rare.
But I think more importantly, we're better around him.
I think we have the best group around him since he's been here.
I think we're good up front.
I think we have good depth.
I think we're experienced and talented at all skill positions.
So I think it's a deal where you can maybe see Kevin be the best version of himself.
Because he doesn't have to carry everything.
He can just go play and let other guys around him help him and hopefully stay healthy.
And you'll see the dual thread he is.
And he does have a strong arm.
He can make everything on the field.
And quite a few throws that no one else can make too.
We had a segment a few weeks ago just kind of by accident at the end of a show that sometimes Andy and I, when we're done talking about football for an hour, we'll go into, you know, weird territory.
We're talking about what coaches would be driving.
And we kind of tried to guess was somebody a truck guy or were they not a truck guy?
You wait in here.
I think that we, do we guess that rent was a truck guy?
We did.
Because I said he's in the Northwest Arkansas.
He's got to be a truck guy.
GMCC era for you.
But here's my question, Rhett.
When you become a head coach for the first time, does the school say here's who we have a deal with?
You got a pick or this is what you're driving or do you actually get to go to side?
It's a great question.
And yeah, I had to weigh in because I think someone said, oh, he's in Holland Park.
He's got to be a Range Rover guy.
I'm like, no.
So yeah, to your point, I am from Arkansas.
I live in Texas.
I trucks the way for me.
When I got hired here, yeah, the SMU deals with school car dealerships here.
Mr. Sools, a board member and a great SMU alum.
So I get a car deal with Sool.
And when I got hired, it was like an infinity SUV was what the head coach had been driving.
And I'm like, hey, you guys got any trucks over there?
And, quickly, they got me in a GMC truck and I've been trucking for the last four years ever since.
Yeah, I know I live a few miles outside of Island Park, but I've driven through it quite a bit.
And there are a lot of trucks.
There's not just a Range Rover community.
I mean, a big souped up.
It's beautiful.
It's still Texas.
Yeah, it's still Texas.
At the end of the day, there's a lot of King Ranches in that general area.
GMC guy, you can't talk about.
I don't understand.
Like, it's the, you know, it's Sools like all types of different cars.
Yeah, that's like that's like the candy store right there where they say, hey, I have a network of 12 different dealerships, you just pick what you want.
That's amazing.
Yeah, I've always wanted to have a job where the car benefit was one of them.
I don't know, maybe one day, Andy, we got to keep growing the show.
Get better at calling plays.
Get better.
Right.
Hey, you know what you really got to do, Ari, is you, you're right.
You do live right down the road and you're at another institution's practice today.
I mean, you could easily come to an SMU practice this fall.
Yeah.
You know what?
I make you a promise, Rhett.
I will be there this fall.
Okay.
Sounds good.
I'm going to hold you to that.
Okay.
Just, you know, not next week or the week.
No, no, it's not next week, but I will be there.
I promise.
I got this.
Let's do this, Rhett.
I bet you I get to your practice this season before he does.
No, I mean, I told him I know because what I'll do is I'll fly in the love fields and drive straight there.
Yeah, I think you and I actually live like seven minutes from each other.
So there's no excuse that we don't see each other more often.
I bet his house is nicer.
Oh, he probably, you're probably just waiting to see if we win a couple games early, you know?
I actually think that you are going to, you're, I actually think that you're going to start three and oh and get off to that fast start you were talking about.
I think you're going to get a 90 on your first exam.
Okay.
We'll take that of the semester.
So we'll see.
We'll find out.
I may be in Tallahassee for that one.
So Rhett, thank you so much and good luck with camp and try, you know, try to get back on the internet.
My boys keep me updated with what's going on.
So if I need to pop back on at some point, we'll get there.
And I just want to say one last thing, always share your opinions if you feel strongly about it because you always have a platform here to discuss those things.
And obviously you're the head coach of SMU.
What you say is going to be news everywhere.
But if you ever feel strongly about something about the CFP or the ACC or anything else, food take, let us know.
We'll have you on.
Hey, my wife will tell you I got no shorties of opinions, but what I will say is I feel strongly about we're all excited.
College footballs here.
You know, we're reporting today.
So the last team in college football to start fall camp.
The last is we play Labor Day.
Well, four to state has a week zero game.
So everybody else has been rolling and we're just getting started today and we couldn't be more excited about, you know, something that everybody in America loves so deeply.
Glad it's back and we can stop talking and start playing.
Well, have fun on the grass and we will see you very soon, Rhett.
Thank you.
See you guys.
Okay, Ari, we are back in studio now.
For the game that everybody loves to play that that's one thing that the folks of the on three offices, this is their favorite thing we do of the week.
So as I was over sitting on the couch with Pete and Aiko's, did you workshop this with anybody?
Yes.
And did they get it?
It's so it's not that they get it.
It's they inspired me.
Okay.
They inspired.
So Jack Terry, who is our guru of all things technological, the originator of the on three graphic, the man who the godfather of the on three graphic, Jack Terry, he planted a seed that became this version of who am I?
Okay.
Well, here we go.
No one has failed yet.
I think I know that I'm probably the favorite to fail.
You're not going to fail this one.
I can tell you this right now.
Okay.
There will be a lot of people, particularly the fans of of a certain school who will probably get this on clue number three.
Okay.
I don't know that that's you because it just depends on how well you know this one person.
I can tell you that there was a question you asked me the other day during who am I that put me in an absolute blender.
Okay.
I have an even more devious version of that question to start with and I won't know which one it is.
It's the first one.
I can tell you right now.
Okay.
It's going to mess with your head.
Okay.
So enjoy everyone.
Here we go.
First time in person indeed.
Indeed.
I'll tell you.
Well, you don't know peeking at screen now.
No peeking screen.
Clue number one.
Last year was my first season as a college head coach.
Okay.
I'm trying to figure out why that's devious.
This is why clue number two is a peak golden.
No.
Okay.
Clue number two.
My record was 15 and 16.
I mean, I know that's like, obviously doesn't make any sense.
I'm trying to wrap my brain around how it could make sense.
The record as a head coach was 15 and 16 in the first season.
Yes.
Okay.
Okay.
Clue number three.
I grew up in Thomasville, Georgia.
Okay.
Fans of a certain school yelling at their speakers right now.
15 and 16.
I don't that that clue seems more weird than the first one.
You'll understand in a second who played 32 games last year.
31 games.
Clue number four.
As a freshman, I was my team's punter.
I redshirted my second season on campus.
I'm like, my palms are sweaty.
This is one of my favorite players of all time, by the way.
I'm still fixated on clue two.
I don't understand.
I don't understand.
It will eventually make sense.
Okay.
Clue number five.
I played quarterback and wide receiver in my third season on campus.
I'm going to get to the corner back wide receiver.
Now did you think I was going to get this by now?
Nope.
Okay.
I think you may get it on the next one.
Okay.
Clue number six.
I also started at point guard on my school's basketball team.
Point guard.
It's like so quiet in here.
He's dying.
It's great.
Clue number seven.
I became the starting quarterback in my fourth season on campus.
Andy.
I can't get past clue two.
I'm still trying to.
Well, clue six should give you a hint as to what clue two means.
Clue six.
I was the starting point guard on my school's basketball team.
Will you reread the first question for me?
The first clue?
Yeah.
The first season as a college head coach.
It's a basketball coach.
Now you're getting it.
Okay.
Clue number eight.
As a red shirt senior, I won the Heismatrophy and led my team to the national title.
I'm like.
I am like dead.
You have two more clues.
You're going to be fine.
College basketball coach who won the Heismatrophy.
The problem is I don't know anything about college basketball.
Number nine.
I was the 26th overall pick in the 1994 NBA draft.
What pick?
26th.
First round.
Point guard.
College basketball coach.
Team quarterback won the Heismatrophy.
Let his team to the national title.
The Erie won the Heismat.
And this was in the early 90s.
You are right about the time.
Okay.
Clue number 10.
I played 11 seasons in the NBA and all but two were spent with the New York Knicks.
Andy.
Oh no.
Oh, Erie.
I don't know enough about basketball.
You know enough about football.
I know.
Who won the Heismatrophy in 1993?
Who won the national championship in 1993?
And that'll help you.
I'm not good at this stuff.
1993.
It's those six years old.
Okay.
A very famous coach.
One of the all-time greatest coaches is his first national title.
I should know this.
It was this school's first national title.
I'll give you a bonus clue.
Clue number 11.
That was the first of three national titles in football that that school has won.
They won another one in 1999 and another one in 2013. Who won the national title in 2013?
Is it Florida State one?
Okay.
So who was Florida State starting quarterback when they won the national title in 1993?
And names on the tip of my tongue.
I'm choking.
Charlie Ward.
I'm choking.
Charlie Ward, one of my favorite players of all time, the guy who won the Heismatrophy.
I blew it.
And then went on to an 11 year NBA career.
I had one of those fascinating players.
I had no idea that Charlie Ward played in the NBA.
So I don't know if that is just like a lapse in my... Well, you would have been probably middle school high school college when he was playing the NBA.
Yeah.
I think you retired from the NBA in 2004.
So you would have been in high school probably.
That's an embarrassing loss because I think most people got that.
So Charlie Ward currently is the Florida A&M men's basketball coach.
I didn't know that.
I don't think I knew that until today.
So how did Jack Terry inspire you on that one?
He said, you should just change it up on Ari one of these days and just have an NBA player.
Just do an NBA player in Southern college football player to which I said, you know what?
I am going to do an NBA player, an NBA player who also won the Heismatrophy.
Yeah.
I didn't know that.
So, I don't know if that's a periscope.
Well, this is one of those, but I didn't know that for the younger ones.
And this for the younger folks in the audience, this is my favorite part of this.
I want you to go watch some clips of Charlie Ward playing football at Florida State.
If the offenses of today had existed, Charlie Ward, well, he would have won maybe he would have won more than one Heismatrophy.
He certainly would have been playing earlier than he did at Florida State.
Like, he did not become the starting quarterback until he was a registered junior.
He would have been a high NFL draft pick.
Now, part of the reason he didn't get picked in the NFL was everyone knew he was going to go in the NBA draft.
Yeah.
And so, it wasn't clear which one he wanted to play.
But if he had known he was going to be a high NFL draft pick, he certainly would have considered it.
So, here's the thing that I want to, like, a college.
Have you ever seen that video of Brandon Walker, like going back and naming the Heismatrophy winners, like for 40 years?
No.
Who can just like go like who won the Heismat?
I don't even know if off the top of my head, I could tell you who won the Heismat in 2015.
Like, I don't have a memory that retains that.
Does it 14 as Marcus Mario to 2015?
Yeah.
16 was Lamar Jackson.
Yeah.
Who was 50?
Oh, Derek Henry.
So, like, I don't have that ability.
Right.
So, that, that, that to me, like, I know obviously who played and who was good during those times, but I don't have a photographic memory, but I do need to like, so back and be better about like, bones like Charlie Ward, though, in terms of his football career, obviously, he was amazing.
He won the Heismatrophy, won a national title, still probably born 15 years too early.
Yeah.
He would have been maybe the greatest college football player of all time playing in some of these more modern offense.
Before we go into the next segment of questions, can I, can I write a question in?
Absolutely.
And you're really good at this because you know history better than me of players in that vein or that ilk that have been stars now.
Ward obviously was born a little early, but it's not like he wasn't successfully.
Right.
And the pro basketball league, anyone, the Heisman, but who do you think were players who were born too early that missed out on greatness as a result of not fitting into a system yet?
I am so glad you asked that because it brings us to our first question for Deere Indian Deere Ari.
And it comes from Luke.
Hey guys, first off, thank you for getting me through the dark days of summer with consistent content that really helps me through the days at work that I don't want to be there.
On Tuesday's show, you were talking about Iowa's QB situation and Ari said something about what if they were able to get a really twitchy guy to come play QB in that system.
And my mind immediately went to what a Flanora sellers was playing in Iowa in 2026.
This gives me an idea for a draft you could do.
Pick quarterbacks from any era who would pair best with some of the most iconic and established offensive systems in college football history.
Love the show.
Keep it going.
Luke.
We're not going to do the draft, but yet this is a great question and it dovetails with the Charlie Ward.
This is also why I had Charlie Ward on my mind because I had just read Luke's question.
I would have loved to have seen Charlie Ward in the Baylor offense that RG3 played in.
Yeah.
You know, any of the like in the Gus Malz on offense, like any of those types of offenses, the offense that man's L played in a Texas A&M in 2012, the Clifix Kingsbury was like, he would have been unstoppable.
Now if we're going to the one, the one guy I think who might have been better than Charlie Ward in those offenses is Randall Cunningham.
Randall or Michael Vick.
Randall Cunningham was born 30 years too early.
If you don't know Randall Cunningham, think of the things that you see these college quarterbacks doing in terms of running and throwing.
He was doing it in the NFL in the 80s.
Yeah.
So when do you think that the people who, because like I think this basically goes for people who are very elusive, fast and good runners?
Yeah.
So Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick, very similar in that they were otherworldly fast, but also had incredible arms.
Like where would you put Brad Smith from Missouri?
Ooh.
Like he rushed for like 4,000 yards and he and his college career.
Was it that many?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
And I mean, he would have been early 2000.
So like we were already in that way.
Yeah, those offenses were moving that way.
So actually, weirdly enough, it was Bill Snyder who probably was the most ahead of the curve on these.
Yeah.
The, the, the offenses he ran with Michael Bishop in the late 90s were the, were the precursors to everything you saw over the next 15 or so years coming in.
Yeah.
Cause I'm trying to think of like guys who would have rushed for 4,000 yards to play time where they just ran the ball at work.
Imagine, imagine Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham.
Randall Cunningham played college at UNLV by the way, he's also their punter.
Yeah.
Cause it's sort of like Charlie Ward.
When you have this good of an athlete, you have to put him on the field somewhere.
But imagine Randall Cunningham or Michael Vick in the 2005 through 2007 West Virginia offense.
What an unstoppable.
Yeah.
I mean, I feel like Westford was like the 05 07 run of Richard at West Virginia, the, the actual welcoming to that type of style or where those quarterbacks are like everybody had already started stealing that from Rich when he was at two Laning Clemson.
So it, especially at Clemson.
That's where like that's where a very young Chip Kelly came down and, and watched and that's where a very young Kevin Wilson, who was at Northwestern at the time with Randy Walker came down and watched.
And so all of those, those concepts got borrowed a young urban Meyer watched Kevin Wilson and Randy Walker do what they did for Northwestern and get Michigan and urban Myers like if I'm ever ahead coach, that's the offense.
I'm going to run.
Yeah.
And you can make the case that Brad Smith was a little early.
Maybe he was only three years or 20, but I think Cam Newton came at exactly the right time and the Gus Malz on offense was the perfect thing for him.
But I want you to imagine something.
I want you to imagine Cam Newton playing for Tom Osborne in the mid 90s in Nebraska.
Yeah.
Tommy Frazier was good.
Imagine Cam Newton in that role.
You know, I like to play and I think that a lot of this too, the game obviously changed, nutrition changed.
Yeah.
Obviously, I think that for whatever reason, the peak athletic ability or performance of modern day athletes is night and day in comparison to ones who played in the 80s.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Just based on just everything that's available.
Right.
And I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think about the fact that I'm not going to be able to do it.
I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think about the fact that I'm not going to be able to do it.
I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think that's what I think about the fact that I'm not going to be able to do it.
History shows that coaches were incredibly *** for a long time about quarterback.
And I'm not saying all coaches, but I think we can be honest here, incredibly racist for a long time when it came to quarterback.
So, so the thing that is interesting is that like how many people played the wrong position because they were never afford the ability to be viewed in that position.
Yeah.
Imagine people watching Warren Moon play quarterback and think because of the color of his skin, he was not going to get a quarterback.
And I know that it's insane to me, but I think that the best place to start is if you're thinking about quarterbacks is what are the best receivers of all time and which receivers played in the 80s that might have been great quarterbacks because because they were just misplaced.
Well, right.
And there were running quarterbacks, but the teams that ran the ball a lot with the quarterback throwing was almost an afterthought.
The one thing that was really interesting about the mid 90s Nebraska teams is they would use the triple option as play action to set up the pass.
Now, Tommy Frazier was not asked to do a lot of really difficult things.
He wasn't asked to throw in a lot of really tight windows, but he was a, he was an adequate thrower of the football, which made them just incredibly dangerous and unstoppable for almost two years.
Now, I need you to put a, you know, a life vest on me and pull me out of the depend here all the way too far.
Okay.
So one thing we know that Randy Moss was an incredible athlete.
We know we know that Randy Moss was an incredible basketball player.
Yep.
You know all about it.
We all watched Randy.
We know how fast he was.
How athletic he was.
He wasn't the point guard though.
He had one of those.
Yeah.
He had a good place in Williams.
By the way, most electric highlight tape of all time.
Of course.
But I was like, what if he threw the ball?
Okay.
Like I think Randy Moss was born to be a wide receiver.
I think Randy Moss might have been the most perfect wide receiver ever created out of other than maybe Calvin Johnson.
I'm saying like you take some of these players because like, you know, you could, who's the, could you imagine LeBron James running the O6 for Virginia offense?
Like there's players that have played different sports, different positions that might have had the ability.
Then we will know about college football.
You know, I think the accuracy precision.
I'm sorry.
Michael, Michael Vick in the Pat White role would have been.
You would have won three national championships.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But I do think that maybe if I had time to actually research and I came up with some guys who played in the 80s and 90s who were just like body style body type wise.
Now Randy Moss might have been a terrible example because it's hard.
He was really tall.
Like I know like, right.
His, his frame.
I don't know that you would want him doing a lot of design quarterback run.
Right.
So.
But it was the first one that came to mind of like, who's a freak athlete that was super fast, super athletic and ran by everybody.
I mean, Vince Young obviously, but Vince Young did that in college.
Texas did take advantage of that.
So.
Yeah.
So I don't know.
Like what if JJ Stokes played quarterback?
I have no idea.
Yeah.
It's, it's a fascinating question.
And I really am glad you asked it.
But like the idea of Cam Newton in the Nebraska triple option is just terrifying.
Yeah.
If you, if you don't know, if you haven't seen Cam Newton in person, maybe you think, Okay, this is a large quarterback.
No, this was an NFL defensive end and a big NFL defensive end playing quarterback.
Yeah.
Who was as fast as an NFL wide receiver.
But again, the size of a large NFL edge rusher.
Yeah.
It's kind of unfair to use Cam Newton too because and we have to obviously be like, there's nobody else like him either.
No, but there's nobody else.
There's really nobody else like Michael Vick either.
So that you put him like Vick in the triple would have been devastating, but Vick has such a good arm.
Like you would, you would rather Vick be running the read option in the West Virginia offense where it's or, I mean, RPOs.
Yeah, because like there is the difference between being fast and being twitchy like being able to, you know, and I think that there's some of that option elusiveness that Vick had all of it.
Vick had all of it plus all of the arm talent.
So who do you think is the most comparable makeup physically to Cam Newton that you've seen?
Because I have a few Vince Young Vince Young is monstrous.
Okay.
He was huge.
I can even leave the sport.
Okay.
LeBron.
Yes.
I think that would it.
Yeah.
Here's a LeBron's couple inches taller.
Yeah.
No one that's an absolute freak of an athlete that didn't have a great career.
Who's that?
Torell Pryor was like that.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
You know, and Torell Pryor, very good basketball player.
And then turned into a receiver and had a thousand yard receiving career or a thousand yard receiving receives in the NFL.
Yeah.
So, but like he had that and I know his his story is complicated.
But in terms of height, thickness, you know, agility, speed.
I and I'm not sure that what Jim Tressel wanted to run offensively.
Like if Torell Pryor comes along four years later and is playing in the Urban Meyer offense being run by Tom Herman, what does that look like?
Yeah.
And I think he was an average thrower, average passer, but I think you only have to be an average passer when you have that those tools in college.
So, um, yeah, it was a really fun question.
But I do wonder too.
Like if you really did a like a master's thesis and we're just like, I'm going to come up with all the players who played the wrong position in college football and not even just two quarterback, just wrong position in general.
Like about how many players might have played outside linebacker that would have been tremendous safeties when the game changed.
Yes.
I mean, well, the landing Collins thing is always like landing Collins was a safety.
And then there's no way it's even five years later in college football.
Landing Collins would have been a safety.
He would have been a linebacker.
Yeah.
So, it's just it is the game does evolve.
There is one modern day freak that's currently in a college football right now that might be squasai similar.
Mm hmm.
You got doose Robinson.
Who's Robins in a Florida state?
Yeah.
Is a physical specimen.
Six six two hundred and thirty five pounds of pure athleticism.
So he's going to have a big year this year.
Yeah.
Obviously.
He is the best player in Florida.
He's roster.
Yeah.
But he has that that general.
Yeah.
*** given makeup.
Yeah.
Next question from Jackson.
Dear Ianine, I want to preface this question by saying that this is not hate on any of these coaches I'm about to mention, but just an observation.
So you guys feel there's aspect of college football now if coaches getting way too much credit for what they have accomplished or people overreacting to results that are more situational than anything.
For example, Steve Sorkisian is treated like a top coach in the sport when materially he hasn't done anything more than what James Franklin did at Penn State.
He beats the teams he should beat with those rosters, but always fall short when it comes to signature matchups against equal or even less talent teams Georgia Ohio State Washington.
He doesn't have a single signature win.
You can point to besides Alabama in 2023.
Additionally, while I respect the *** of Kurt Signetti, his championship run and success feels a lot like a lot more like Ed Orgeron at LSU that it does a Sabin type dynasty build.
I think the shock of him winning so quickly has made it lost on people that the lightning and a bottle effect is real and sometimes all the pieces just fall together.
I don't think there's anyone that would argue that Ed O was a great it was an elite coach at LSU, but he happened to put together one of the best teams ever before being shortly fired.
I'm not saying Kurt Signetti isn't a good coach, but I find her believe that some transcendent guy was sitting at D2 and the G5 level all that time and is doing something revolutionary different.
I expect to fall back down to earth and just as easily see nine and three or eight and four as them making the playoff.
Keep up the good work Jackson from Texas.
Okay.
Ari, let's time travel back to August, 2024.
The coach at Indiana in year three went nine and three.
That's like one of the greatest coaching jobs of all time, right?
He's a high-erable coach.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Now you're skipping over something.
Right.
Or two things.
He went 11 and 11 and two the first year and then he won the national title in the second year.
Guys, stop it with this with Signetti.
Stop it.
If Kurt Signetti wins nine games in Indiana, you know what that means?
He's still a great coach because it's freaking Indiana.
We've been in just for reference guys.
We've been at the recruiting supposing them all week and it was very loud in there.
And we're both.
Yeah, my voice is gone.
We're both shot.
We're both have been talking a lot this week.
So forgive us.
But yeah.
So I actually buy all of it the entire question because I do believe and agree that the lightning and the bottle thing is real.
I think that there are certain.
I do too.
I do too.
And you have the right pieces and the right chemistry and the ball bounces your way and those things happen.
That said, lightning in a bottle at Indiana should have been eight wins.
Yes.
Like that's like, that's what lightning in a like it's not lightning in a bottle.
It's something extraordinary that you're never going to see again is what you saw.
So that's the that that what you just said is what I'm on high alert for.
I'm not on high alert for Indiana to fall back to eight and four.
I'm on high alert to see if Kurt signety is a genius in it of himself right now.
And I think that he is right now or if it can be duplicated by someone else in this new world.
We don't know that like a Bob Chesney or a Will sign.
Yeah.
Do it somewhere else.
I don't.
My voice too.
It's getting to a place where.
The thing that's remarkable is that he did it was the speed in which he did it.
Yeah.
And I don't know how many other people are going to be able to duplicate the city.
And it's not like he caught lightning in a bottle with elite talent.
He took guys from James Madison, combined them with some guys from Indiana and some guys out of the portal.
And also guys made the playoff in year one and then won the national title with a different quarterback.
Yeah.
Like it was a different like they had a lot of the same players.
I'm not saying retention wasn't an important key to that.
But they were a playoff team with a Mac court with a guy who came back from the Mac.
Yeah.
They went back.
I mean Curtis for work.
I had a great year.
I think he's on the pros.
He's on the 49ers.
He's not a bad quarterback.
But a lot of times to you, you see these quick turn arounds when you have complete retention.
And they they not only lost their quarterback when they replaced him with the number one overall draft pick.
And now the other thing that you also have to take into consideration is that Indiana is recruiting really well.
Yeah.
They've done a really good job in the portal and obviously have a lot of really important pieces.
They got back.
You know, this is a gift from this new ruling this week, but one of the best tackle for loss of productions and yeah, they got production back.
Yeah, that they didn't even expect to have.
Yeah.
And they have Nick Marsh.
They just signed a or I mean, sorry, got a commitment from a five star player.
Punch and sales who's local.
But yeah, they didn't ever have a chance to live in Bloomington.
He wasn't going to Indiana three years ago.
So I just I think that like there's this and I get it because it was so strange and it was so transcendent and it was so different like you were dying to explain it away.
I know I know the feeling you want to understand every single time Kurt Sagnetti's having a press conference.
People ask him, people really want to just have gotten lucky and I'm telling you right now, that's not what happened.
They might you could even maybe had this question after they made the playoff.
Yeah, and I think everybody did have that question after they made the play.
But two years of it and then being in the top 10 right now and then saying the regret.
I just love that the goal post has moved so much that now it's like, he's only one nine games this year.
He must ***.
But I don't think it's a thought.
I don't think it's a bad question.
Well, the sark part of it's really interesting.
Yeah, we'll get to that.
But I just think that what it really is is the human nature or the desire to want to understand how because for 25 years and beyond, it was impossible.
Like I don't think that Kurt Sagnetti could have done this in 2001.
No.
It's been a great coach back then.
If the current version of Kurt Sagnetti existed in '01, he would have figured it out and they would have won eventually big.
But the swiftness of the turnaround obviously has a lot to do with how you're able to navigate the rules now.
But my question and it has been all summer and I've asked you a hundred times, is do you think somebody else will do it somewhere else?
I don't know.
And if it does, I don't know how you feel about Sagnetti now.
Maybe.
But I debt.
But again, Ari, I'm gonna say it one more time.
A freaking Indiana.
But let's talk about the Sark part of it because I do think that was.
That's a very interesting way of putting that question.
And if we're gonna compare Sark and James Franklin, what is the top level that each reached?
Both of them made it to the semis.
Both of them had a chance to win in the semis.
Now Sark had a chance to do it twice.
There was a 14 to playoff.
Yeah.
They were losing to Washington, but they did have the ball at the end of the game with a chance to throw it into the end zone.
Yes.
Exactly.
They had a chance.
And then obviously they were high estate game.
They were down by the goal line.
And then they were in both games.
What happened happened?
Yeah.
So this is interesting because I think the way that you phrase things can make things sound the same when they're not.
I think that the way that the question was phrased makes them sound the same.
I think the problem with James Franklin is that his failure at Penn State against the Ohio State teams and the Michigan teams that ended up winning it went over a it's a prolonged period of time.
Right.
Like and Sark has had enough chances to even be in the conversation with James Franklin yet.
I agree.
And, you know, there's no marquee win.
But I also think that's a dismissal of beating the absolute *** out of a playoff team.
I was gonna say it.
But, but also 2023 Alabama that win was a really good win.
You can't just and I also brush it off.
This isn't a, you know, moral, I mean, what the moral victory sport.
Yeah.
That Ohio State team that won the national championship two years guys was really good.
Yeah.
Texas had them on the ropes.
They didn't win.
But it's, you know what?
And I will even give you that there was a worse call I've ever seen.
I was going to say I'll give it to be right into the Sark Asian goal line conversation.
And the red zone.
Also the Washington game.
I get it.
Coaches lose on big stages all the time because the teams that they're playing on big stages are also really good.
And I feel like if you, if Texas this year with the team that they have, if they, if they lose to Georgia every time they play and they don't win the SEC and they go to the playoff or miss the playoff and lose early in the playoff, however you want to do it.
I'll have this discussion next year.
Yeah.
But I think that we're maybe a year early on.
I think you're right.
I think let's, let's give him a little bit, bit bigger of a sample size before we, before we go there.
Yeah.
Last question.
This is from Tony.
Tony met you at LAX.
I was at LAX having, I think pancakes.
It was the morning after the festival.
The two year, two years ago, the Ohio State run, the Rose Bowl Rose Bowl.
Was I say, Fiesta, sorry, Rose Bowl.
I was in LAX after the Ohio States went over Oregon.
And I was typing up a column about Oregon and an Oregon fan approached me in the airport.
I shook his hand.
We talked about it a little bit.
Told them when I was writing, which was basically, keep your head up.
Keep your head up.
Keep shooting at the basket.
Eventually, it's going to go in.
Mm hmm.
So here's Tony's question.
We spend so much time talking about the next breakout or surprise team coming this season, especially with the matches coaching carousel changes from UCLA to Virginia Tech to Kentucky local estate.
We're talking about the potential for serious changes.
However, if these teams perform well, some other teams have to lose.
What are some of the teams that could be potentially facing a serious progression?
Perhaps a transfer gutted Duke won't come close to stepping the ACC championship again, or something similar in other conferences.
We get caught up in the hype so much this off season, but say all of these coaches make big turnarounds who is losing at their best.
So yeah.
Can we start with Will sign in Kentucky?
Well, I do think that we at least need to give them the proper guidelines of who we're going to be choosing from the pool of the people who are falling back, Andy.
Are the teams that were either in the playoff last year or competing for it?
Sure.
So I think that this isn't a prediction of who's going to *** this year.
No, it's more of a whole.
It's where do the wins come from?
Right.
And I'll give you.
So Kentucky's a great example of this.
Kentucky has a hard schedule.
Okay.
Here's no, they play Louisville in the non-conference, obviously, the end of the year.
Here's their SEC schedule.
Alabama at Texas A&M at South Carolina, LSU at Oklahoma, Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Florida at Missouri.
If Kentucky's good, it means they've probably beaten two or three of these teams.
You ready?
Yep.
Alabama, Vanderbilt, Missouri, which means that probably those teams had a much more disappointing season than last year.
Now I will say Vanderbilt, we were hanging around with some folks from Vanderbilt this week.
They would be disappointed if they went seven and five.
They would consider that a very disappointing season given the talent they feel like they have on the roster.
Historically speaking though, seven and five is a really good record, Vanderbilt.
Yeah.
And I think that even if the regression happens, that doesn't mean that the overall build is off.
It means that they've been successful in that build.
But as you point out, Kentucky, there are going to be teams that are actually very good that might not be on the off season sweet heart list.
Maybe it'll be another team that's not Virginia Tech and Kentucky.
Right.
You know how this goes?
Oklahoma State is the one that we feel the most sure about.
So where do those wins come from?
Because everybody beat Oklahoma State last year.
Yeah.
So he can start week one.
What got Mike funny?
What got Mike Gundee fired last year?
The awful, awful loss to who was it?
Tulsa.
Tulsa.
That's right.
Very lamb good coach.
They do a good job there.
Should not beat Oklahoma State under any circumstances.
My guess is Oklahoma State wins that one.
Yeah.
You know, they're at West Virginia.
They'll be favored in that one more than likely.
UCF, they'll be favored in that one.
Houston's going to be a really tough one.
That's that ad Houston.
That Oklahoma State ad Houston on October 17 could be one of the best games in the big 12 this year.
Yeah.
Colorado.
We think Colorado will be better than they were last year.
But this is one of those.
If Oklahoma State is better, they have to show it in games like that Iowa State.
They lost Matt Campbell.
They might be taking a step back.
So that's like with Oklahoma State, you can see where it comes from.
Yeah.
Well, Oklahoma State also has to play Texas Tech and Arizona State in November.
Yeah.
And those teams that would be falling back are probably from teams that have been historically better.
And the last few years and they were.
You know, I think that Oklahoma State is going to be much better because it's hard to be as bad as they were a year ago.
I don't know if I'm 100% bought in on the fact they're going to go win 10 games this year either.
So like, right.
I think we have set the bar really high for them.
And we're not, we're still not understanding that this was a situation where it was the worst team in school history.
They basically changed everything.
They ported a lot of North Texas with Eric Morris, but we don't know exactly how that's going to look in the big 12.
So exactly.
Let's look at Virginia Tech also.
And so he mentioned Duke.
Duke's an interesting one because they did lose five games last year.
So they lost to Yukon.
They lost to Tulane.
They lost to Illinois.
They actually could be very similar to last year, but not sniff the ACC championship game because the losses might come more in conference than they are out of conference.
Right.
Virginia Tech also happens to be in a conference where there's one clear identifiable favorite.
Yeah.
And they got to play him on the road, by the way, the road at the end of the year.
But I don't know what other ACC team is being waited to get knocked off their.
But here's the thing.
I don't like having to play at Cal, at Clemson, at SMU, not Miami.
That's a rough straight.
Yeah.
That's rough.
We're in this specific discussion.
We're saying if Virginia Tech is good, who do they knock out, right?
Well, they would win at Clemson.
And we're having a really weird discussion.
Yeah.
They may maybe they know our guests today would say not happening at SMU.
I know, but it has to be the answer because either SMU or Miami because he's wondering which one.
Well, it's also Virginia, which was good last year.
It could be Virginia too.
So, so I think that the interesting thing about Oklahoma State in Virginia Tech being one of the sweetheart offseason.
Oh, Georgia Tech, Losport coordinators, Haynes King's done, you know.
These two teams also reside in conferences that don't have traditionally a ton of at large playoff candidates at the end of the year.
So transitioning to UCLA will be fun because the big 10 has six teams that they might be playing that might, you know, like they're just not playing in the conferences that have a ton of people to knock out.
Which again, going back to our signety question.
Yeah, just tells you how amazing all that was.
Yeah.
UCLA schedules is also very hard.
They open at Cal and you and I have talked about we like JKS.
We think Toshalpoi definitely knows how to stock a roster with talent.
It's a really brutal opener for both of them.
Call and San Diego State right off the bat.
It's tough.
And then in big 10 play, they're ad ***.
The really hard ones are ad *** at Michigan and then they close with USC.
But at Minnesota won't be easy Wisconsin at homes, not going to be easy.
Illinois at home is not going to be easy.
So UCLA to be anything like signetes first year at Indiana, they already had to be so freaking good.
Yeah, there's no signety had the benefit of his first year.
They played one team that was in the playoff.
Right.
We looked at the beginning of that schedule or that schedule at the beginning of the year and said, oh, they played Washington and Michigan and back to back.
And those games played for the national title last year.
But yes, that schedule a lot of being easier than we thought.
But I don't think that it's inconceivable that UCLA beats Cal, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois.
That gets them to nine.
That's a big that's a big year.
Optimistic.
And that means that you're automatically counting USC, Michigan and Oregon as losses.
And that's the thing.
And if you can win all those games, you just mentioned, you might be able to beat USC or Michigan.
Yeah, you might.
But there's no, there's not they have nine games against teams that aren't automatic losses.
Right.
Which I think is a good place to start.
Now, the question is can UCLA exist on the same field on the road at Oregon?
Probably not.
Can they do it against Michigan on the road?
I would say probably not, but you know, who knows?
And then of course, there's a rivalry situation and UCLA has beaten USC at times in the past that had been fascinating.
But like, I would think that like if you're a Michigan fan, they're not.
They weren't trending upward last year.
I don't see was I don't want to see if I'm Michigan.
I don't really want to see them come into the big house the week before I play a last eight.
Yeah.
And USC, not a fan of that.
Can you imagine if UCLA is an eight and four-ish type team and USC is one win away from playing for an at large spot?
Oh my ***.
Why?
I know.
That would be, I mean, that could be something.
So, you know, there are, there are, so now let me just, can I morph the question a little bit?
Or the teams that were either in the playoff or on the, and this is kind of similar to the show yesterday.
But what are the, or Wednesday, I should say, are the similar teams that are in that mix in the playoff, either made it or on the edge of making it last year that should be on high alert for regressions.
As a result of teams being better than they were.
Well, Vandy.
Yeah.
Texas A&M needs to worry about that.
Oklahoma.
Oklahoma.
Ole Miss.
Alabama.
Indiana.
So, there are a lot of teams, if the, if the spirit of the question is there are new teams going to be, that means someone has to lose.
It doesn't just have to be the three that we chose arbitrarily or that you put in your email.
There could be a whole new team that we're not even thinking of.
That's awesome this year that knocks these teams off.
And there are a lot of teams that very important intersections in their programs, growth and development that, that could be facing games that we're not even aware of yet.
That could be facing regression.
So, the SEC to me is by far the hardest conference in cultural ball to peg.
And I don't know if that's a statement of their depth and the quality of team from top to bottom.
But I think that trying to pick which team in the S like, man, like what if Florida is really good?
Yeah.
I talked to some people that went to Florida at the symposium.
They feel good about their roster.
They feel really good about the team.
Yeah.
So, and you know, going back to the first question, lightning in the bottle is fun because it's, the clouds are forming yet, but nothing struck.
Like, something's going to strike.
Can't wait.
Can't wait.
I cannot wait.
And hey, we're one week closer.
One week closer.
Real games coming in three weeks for now.
Camps are open.
Everybody's practicing.
Feels good.
It's time.
Let's watch that money.
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